Ain't you had enough of this stuff?

While aspects of Nebraska's overtime loss to Illinois looked familiar, how it happened may have been quite new.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

Nebraska lost its grip on 4-0 and the first top-25 win since 2011 on the second drive of the third quarter Friday night. The numbers don’t really show that, but I thought it while it was happening and I still think it here on Monday morning.

Let me set it up.

The Huskers were a bit fortunate to be up 17-10 at the half against Illinois. The offense was playing well, the defense was not. The Illini averaged 6.4 yards per play over the first 30 minutes, but thanks to a broken-play touchdown from Dylan Raiola to Isaiah Neyor with 23 seconds left in the second quarter, Nebraska had the touchdown lead. The Huskers’ one big advantage of the first half was a 7-minute edge in time of possession. The best way to maintain that shaky first-half edge was to stop the Illinois offense out of the break and answer with a score to make it a two-possession game.

The Blackshirts got the stop to start the second half, giving the offense the ball at its own 12-yard line with a win probability at 87.5%. Raiola found Neyor for 29 yards to instantly put the Huskers out near midfield. The drive died there after two short runs and an incompletion. Nebraska didn’t even get a flipped field out of the deal after Brian Buschini’s 53-yard punt was returned 37 yards, back to the Illinois’ 43.

Nebraska’s defense took the field with NU’s win probability still at 82.8%, not a lot lost in the grand scheme of things, but this was more of an opportunity cost. If the Husker offense had gotten even a field goal on that drive—while taking the clock down to, say, 5 minutes left in the third quarter—NU’s win probability climbs above 98%. A touchdown to make it 24-10 would’ve taken things to 99.6%.

Instead of virtually slamming the door shut, Nebraska left it open and we know what happened from there. We saw plenty of “same old Nebraska” comments following the overtime loss, nationally and locally, but the loss to Illinois was actually something new.

It was the first time in the Matt Rhule era that the defense didn’t play well enough to win over four full quarters. The Blackshirts didn’t force any three-and-outs. The Illini gained 64% of the available yards, averaging 5.8 yards per play. The high for a Tony White defense at Nebraska remainss 5.9 yards per play with 83% of available yards¹ by Michigan last year, which, depending on how you view that game in retrospect, was definitely against the eventual national champions and perhaps against eventual champs with an unfair scouting edge. Either way, Illinois basically matched that yardage output on Friday.

So, maybe a fairly forgettable offensive drive early in the third quarter was the one Friday’s Blackshirts needed. Hard to blame the offense, however, for only gaining one first down. Drives stall. Maybe better punt coverage, or a better punt, would’ve been enough. Buschini punted the ball to the 6, but it was away from his coverage and the Illini made Nebraska pay.

All of that points to one of two takeaways I had from the Huskers’ first loss of the season. It’s not that Nebraska is the same—there’s no doubt in my mind it’s better than previous seasons—but its margins are still really thin. If this team is to be “good” at the end of the season, it will be because it played well most of the time. This isn’t yet a team that wins with its C game.

The second takeaway? We’ve got some things to talk about defensively.

Over the weekend I took Nebraska’s defensive numbers from the first four games last season and put them side by side with this year’s. The schedules to date were pretty similar, both including Colorado, a Big Ten opponent and a pair of money games against G5-or-lower opponents. These are the statistical categories that stood out:

Some potentially unfamiliar terms and numbers there, so we’ll work big to small as you move down the table. Expected Points Added (EPA) per play is the big, overarching number here that simply measures how much value an offense generates for itself play to play. A lower number is better for a defense, and the Huskers’ EPA/play this season is a little bit higher than at this point last season. Why?

The Blackshirts’ success rate is slightly lower in 2024, though that’s countered by slight gains in giving up fewer big plays while creating more havoc plays.² Let’s drill a little bit deeper.

By success rate measures, there are two types of downs—standard³ and passing.⁴ In standard downs, an offense is on schedule and has the advantage. Passing downs favor the defense. So far in 2024 the average FBS offense has a 49.1% success rate on standard downs and a 31.4% success rate on passing downs. Big difference.

Last year, Nebraska’s defense was excellent at winning when the offense had the advantage. The Huskers were taking value away, on average (the -0.11 in the table above), from opposing offenses on standard downs through four games last year. Their EPA/play climbed into the black at .0019 by the end of the year—as you’d expect with eight conference games added to the tally—but that still ranked 15th nationally.

Through four games this year, Nebraska’s EPA/play on standard downs ranked 75th. That means opposing offenses are on schedule more often while having more success than they did a year ago, which is a nasty knock-on effect. Nasty enough that the Blackshirts being better on passing downs so far might not be enough to offset the change.⁵

How do you explain it? We’ll need to see more before reaching any conclusions. I don’t think the element of surprise was a big factor in Nebraska’s out-of-nowhere rise to a top-10 defense last season, but if it was even helped a little by unfamiliarity, that’s gone now. There’s a season of tape on how the Huskers played last year. Illinois’ offense sure seemed to push all of the right buttons on Friday. Almost everything the Illini tried to do worked, especially in the second half when they leaned more heavily on the run.

That’s the other big departure after four games with the defense. Opponents have run the ball 46% of the time this season compared to 33% at this point in 2023. Given that UTEP and Colorado weren’t all that interested in the ground game, a crack in last year’s veneer against the run (which would show up most on standard downs) couldn’t really show up until Northern Iowa. What was perhaps mild concern against the Panthers—“maybe this is a thing?”—grew against Illinois. We’ll see where things go from here, but if opposing offenses think they have more of a chance against Nebraska with the run, and they end up being right, things just got more difficult for the Blackshirts moving forward. The Big Ten doesn’t have many UTEPs, but it has more than enough teams like Illinois.

Of course, it is still early in the season and the Huskers are still 3-1. The numbers here can change, and if I had to bet, I’d bet they’ll change positively for NU in the games to come. Will they match last year’s? Maybe not in some specific categories, and they might not have to if the offense continues to produce more than it did in 2023.

We explored that potential outcome over the offseason:

Because the pass defense is more uncertain, however, a step back against the run is probably the direct route to some overall regression. Stopping the run is deeply woven into the fabric of Rhule’s approach, and it has been the sharper edge of White’s double-edged sword in three of his four non-COVID seasons as a coordinator. I think highly enough of the d-line entering the season that losing two highly-respected veterans in Luke Reimer and Nick Henrich at linebacker isn’t enough on its own for me to expect a big fall off against the run. It’s possible, however.

What would it mean for rising expectations if it happened? That depends on the offense, as most things do with the Huskers in 2024. There are some echoes of 2010 here.

Entering that season Nebraska had to replace five starters—including Ndamukong Suh, who basically put up numbers on his own that would’ve been good for a starting defensive line—from a defensive that led the country at 10.4 points per game allowed. The 2010 Blackshirts gave up a touchdown more per game—still top-10 nationally—and almost nobody noticed the difference defensively because the offense went from 25 points per game (75th) to 30 (38th).

After allowing 31 points to Illinois, Nebraska’s defense is giving up 12.8 points per game (18th). Through four games last year, that number was 18.5 and the Huskers would finish the season at 18.3 (13th). That defense was paired with an offense that averaged 18 points per game. This year’s defense is paired with an offense that’s nearly two touchdowns per game better so far.

That should give the Blackshirts time to bounce back from an off night and a game that, despite the one-score margin and overtime collapse, wasn’t all that much like so many others.⁶

Helmet Stickers

CB Ceyair Wright: It wasn’t the best night for Nebraska’s secondary as a whole, but Wright held his own after subbing in for the injured Tommi Hill. The USC transfer made six tackles with a sack and a forced fumble.

LT Gunnar Gottula: The false start to begin overtime stands out, which is unfortunate because the dominant takeaway from Gottula’s game was how much he didn’t stand out, in a good way, after coming on for Turner Corcoran, who left early with an injury.

Nebraska Volleyball: Can’t do a whole lot better than sweeping No. 2 Stanford and No. 4 Louisville (on the road) in the span of five days. The Huskers open Big Ten play this week with visits from the L.A. schools, UCLA on Friday, USC on Sunday.

B1G Things

Nothing like re-tiering the Big Ten only to have it all upended by the following weekend. Some thoughts…

>>Rumors of Michigan’s demise have been greatly exaggerated, recently by me. The Wolverines beat USC 27-24 while attempting 12 passes for 32 yards. I don’t know how sustainable that is long-term, but let’s just say I’m not penciling Michigan in for 7-5. I was a week ago.

>>Maybe Minnesota isn’t headed for “much better than the offseason consensus” after all. Iowa rallied from a 7-point halftime deficit behind 293 yards rushing (6.0 per carry). Running back Kaleb Johnson leads the nation with 685 yards and ranks second with nine rushing TDs. The Hawkeyes are off this week before facing Ohio State on Oct. 5.

>>How many Big Ten teams have “passed every test” through four weeks? I’d have the list at Illinois, Indiana, Ohio State and … dramatic pause … Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights had a yards-per-play deficit in their 26-23 win at Virginia Tech but had a 25-14 edge in first downs. Running back Kyle Monangai had a pedestrian (for him) 84 yards on 3.2 per carry, and Rutgers went 1-of-3 on field goals. Still won in Blacksburg.

What’s Next?

Purdue lost 38-21 at Oregon State and came by it honestly with the Beavers earning a 95% postgame win probability. Circa Sports opened the Nebraska-Purdue game at Huskers -9. Neither SP+ nor FPI dropped NU too drastically after the loss to Illinois. SP+ still has Nebraska 31st nationally, FPI 36th. The Boilermakers (1-2), however, are among the lowest-rated power conference teams in both models. SP+ puts Purdue at 86th and would have the line on this game at Nebraska -14. FPI has the Boilermakers at 94th with a projected line of NU -11.

1. Prior to last week, Nebraska had held 13 of 15 opponents below 50% of available yards.

2. Any tackle for loss, pass defended or forced fumble.

3. All first-down plays, second-down plays with 6 or fewer yards to go and third or fourth down plays with 4 or fewer yards to go.

4. All the down-and-distance scenarios beyond the standard down definition above.

5. In a baseball context, this is the difference between a (standard downs) pitcher who is good at keeping runners off base and a (passing downs) pitcher who is good at working out of jams. Better to stay out of trouble than get out of trouble.

6. That sentiment makes this week’s musical inspiration something of a play-action fake. Gotta keep you on your toes.