Here's why I'm more concerned about Purdue than most people, and the models.
With the exception of their 66-7 destruction by ND, they've run the ball pretty well, and they commit to it. Even in the ND game, they ran the ball 25 times (passed it 24.) ESPN made a minor deal out of what Oregon State did to Purdue on the ground because the Beavers won. In that game Purdue racked up 263 yds rushing on 30 carries. Their leading rusher Devon Mockobee has started the season off very well, 276 yds on 36 carries, while #2 RB Reggie Love III has added 165 yds on 27 carries.
In last year's game against Nebraska, Mockobee only had 7 carries for 42 yards. I don't recall why, injury perhaps? I know it's a different coordinator and different defense, but Mockobee ran all over the Huskers in 2022. Illinois was able to run effectively at times against Nebraska, and IMO Purdue's a better rushing team.
Purdue QB Hudson Card isn't Luke Altmyer, but unlike last year I think offensive coordinator Graham Harrell has figured out his starting QB's accuracy and decision making often leave something to be desired. Hence the emphasis on staying with the run even when they were getting destroyed by ND.
When Purdue does decide to throw, big 6'4 240 lb. TE Max Klare is their leading receiver, followed by WRs Jahmal Edrine, De'Nylon Morrissette, Jaron Tibbs and Leland Smith. Smith's 6'4, Edrine and Tibbs are 6'3, Morrissette's 6'1. Illinois did damage through the air with the same kind of big receivers and big TE Purdue's got.
Purdue's only given up six sacks (four to ND) none to OSU this past weekend, but they did allow 4 TFLs. If the Blackshirts don't tackle better and get more pressure on Card (even Card can complete mid-range throws to the TE) than they did on Altmyer, this game could be very competitive.
Nailed it. Purdue has two backs averaging over 6 yards per carry. I expect NU to respond well from the loss, but with something to prove in the run game, the Boilermakers strike right at that.
Truly outstanding article. Great take, backed up by #'s. My daughter pointed out that I let the outcome impact my mood on Saturday. I need to work on that. My weekend music influence is this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=GTNqLC9osgc&t=250s
Great article, as usual!
Here's why I'm more concerned about Purdue than most people, and the models.
With the exception of their 66-7 destruction by ND, they've run the ball pretty well, and they commit to it. Even in the ND game, they ran the ball 25 times (passed it 24.) ESPN made a minor deal out of what Oregon State did to Purdue on the ground because the Beavers won. In that game Purdue racked up 263 yds rushing on 30 carries. Their leading rusher Devon Mockobee has started the season off very well, 276 yds on 36 carries, while #2 RB Reggie Love III has added 165 yds on 27 carries.
In last year's game against Nebraska, Mockobee only had 7 carries for 42 yards. I don't recall why, injury perhaps? I know it's a different coordinator and different defense, but Mockobee ran all over the Huskers in 2022. Illinois was able to run effectively at times against Nebraska, and IMO Purdue's a better rushing team.
Purdue QB Hudson Card isn't Luke Altmyer, but unlike last year I think offensive coordinator Graham Harrell has figured out his starting QB's accuracy and decision making often leave something to be desired. Hence the emphasis on staying with the run even when they were getting destroyed by ND.
When Purdue does decide to throw, big 6'4 240 lb. TE Max Klare is their leading receiver, followed by WRs Jahmal Edrine, De'Nylon Morrissette, Jaron Tibbs and Leland Smith. Smith's 6'4, Edrine and Tibbs are 6'3, Morrissette's 6'1. Illinois did damage through the air with the same kind of big receivers and big TE Purdue's got.
Purdue's only given up six sacks (four to ND) none to OSU this past weekend, but they did allow 4 TFLs. If the Blackshirts don't tackle better and get more pressure on Card (even Card can complete mid-range throws to the TE) than they did on Altmyer, this game could be very competitive.
Nailed it. Purdue has two backs averaging over 6 yards per carry. I expect NU to respond well from the loss, but with something to prove in the run game, the Boilermakers strike right at that.
Truly outstanding article. Great take, backed up by #'s. My daughter pointed out that I let the outcome impact my mood on Saturday. I need to work on that. My weekend music influence is this. https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=GTNqLC9osgc&t=250s