Look for the reasons behind it all
Look for the reasons behind it all
Nebraska remained in control against UNI, but now the degree of difficulty increases.
A few things I expected to see Saturday night from Northern Illinois-Nebraska:
1. A bit of rust from the Husker run defense. The Blackshirts had faced the fewest rushing attempts of any FBS team through two games, and UNI had the philosophy—and two big backs—to force the issue. The Panthers did on the first drive, rushing nine times for 32 yards (3.55 ypc) on a drive that ate up 10 minutes but only resulted in a field goal.
From there, it felt like things improved even though it didn’t really show in the numbers. UNI averaged 3.56 yards per rush over the remainder of the game, but the longest runs of the night from running backs Tye Edwards and Amauri Pesek-Hixson (9 yards) came on that opening drive. The Huskers only allowed one rush over 10 yards, an 11-yard zone read keeper from quarterback Aidan Dunne. The Panthers earned their 3.6 yards per carry.
While this wasn’t one of the “why are you even trying?” performances against the run we saw most of last year, it didn’t trigger any major alarms for me. If anything, I came away with a good deal of respect for UNI’s ability to execute its brand of football against what the latest SP+ rankings have as the third-best defense in the country. It won’t surprise me at all if the Panthers beat Hawai’i this week.
2. A directed effort to work on the passing game. Nebraska’s offense only ran 48 plays Saturday, and 26 of them were passes (54.2%). It was notable and intentional flip from an offense that had been 55% run over the first two games.
“We wanted to be aggressive because this was a good night for us to work on our passing game,” Matt Rhule said. “That’s why we threw that post at the end because it was there and we thought we had it.”
The post route Rhule referred to led to the first interception1 of Dylan Raiola’s career, but it was the right throw according to the head coach. An important throw to have on film from here on out.
The Panthers’ match-quarters coverage is one the Huskers will see a lot moving forward. The Big Ten is “a quarters league,” Rhule said last week. All the more reason to put more emphasis on the pass.
The result was Raiola’s best game yet. He threw for a career-high 247 yards on 10.7 yards per attempt, posting a 91.9 QBR2 for the game. It was an FCS opponent, sure, but Nebraska was able to get some game reps in on a facet of the game the staff knows it will need from here on out.
3. A solid game, not without nitpicks, but one where NU retains control. The control piece here was probably going to be the ultimate barometer for me for assessing the Northern Iowa game. Test passed, and that’s after UNI possessed the ball for 10 minutes on its opening drive.
I’ve written about this aspect of the season before, so I won’t spend much time on it here, but Rhule mentioned it after the game.
“We want to score, get a lead, play defense and run the football,” he said. The Huskers have done it all three times out.
You can’t emphasize this point enough so far in 2024: Nebraska has not trailed this season. The defense has played eight snaps3 with the game tied (i.e. without the lead). Pretty nice edge for one of the nation’s best defenses.
Nebraska ranks sixth this week in ESPN’s game-control metric.4 The five teams ahead of Nebraska—new No. 1 Texas, No. 5 Ole Miss, No. 8 Miami, Indiana and No. 6 Tennessee, all undefeated.
This is a big departure from most of Nebraska’s Big Ten era. The Pelini teams were good and talented, but volatile. The Riley teams kind of went with the wind and had slimmer margins than Pelini’s teams did and needed control more. The Frost teams never really figured out how to get ahead and apply pressure via game state, a key piece of that staff’s 2017 run at UCF.
In Rhule’s second year, the Huskers have done it almost as well as anyone through three games. How long they can keep that up sets the ceiling for 2024, and the competition level takes a jump this week. ESPN’s FPI rates Nebraska’s remaining schedule as the 15th-toughest nationally.5
Helmet Stickers
WR Carter Nelson: Four targets, four catches, 48 yards (29 YAC) and his first career touchdown. If the Huskers stay healthy at wideout, they can send dangerous players at opposing defenses in waves
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DL Kai Wallin: With Jimari Butler out with a minor injury, Nebraska was able to mix up some of its combos on the d-line. Wallin had two tackles, but he stood out more for his ability to pierce the UNI line. Good young player.
DB Isaac Gifford: After playing deep center field, essentially, for the first two games, Gifford had seven tackles to show for it. He had 10 against the run-heavier Panthers, including 1.5 for a loss. Still got it.
B1G Things
Most Big Ten teams6 reached the quarter pole of their seasons last week, so I thought now was a decent time to revisit the preseason consensus on the league. It’s still early, of course, but it feels like the received wisdom of the offseason is pretty fluid right now.
To set the stage, using the earliest title odds as a baseline, there were basically four tiers in the Big Ten:
The Title Contenders: Ohio State, Oregon, Penn State, Michigan
The Playoff, Maybe?: USC, Washington
The Endless Middle: Wisconsin, Iowa, UCLA, Nebraska, Michigan State, Maryland, Minnesota
The Probably Nots: Illinois, Rutgers, Purdue, Northwestern, Indiana
If you had to re-tier the Big Ten based on what we’ve seen thus far, how’d you do it? Here’s how I would (teams in italics are those moving tiers).
The Title Contenders
Ohio State only has two games in the books, but the Buckeyes are the only unassailable ones in this group. Oregon stays in the top group after throttling rival Oregon State, a much-needed display of power after two lackluster games to start the season. We only have two Penn State games to go on, and the impressive opening win at West Virginia lost some of its shine after a scare from Bowling Green in Week 2. Still, the Nittany Lions have the talent on hand to remain in the top group. I’m sliding USC up a tier, too, because I think the Big Ten will be a tough enough league that we’re looking at four playoff teams, not three.
The Playoff, Maybe?
Is it crazy to have Indiana here? The Hoosiers have undeniably been the biggest positive surprise in the conference so far, and their rapid rise in most of the power ratings, even with a strength of schedule that ranks 106th, make this a defensible position.7 Having Nebraska in this tier isn’t much less crazy. It might seem edgy for the sake of being edgy, but when you take schedule into account, I think this tier is really just these two teams if we’re talking back end of the Playoff.
The Endless Middle
Nobody would’ve argued if Michigan only slipped one tier, but I have a hard time seeing it with the Wolverines. The defense is still strong, just not quite as strong as last year, but I haven’t seen the consistency at QB (and on offense in general) to think an in-season turnaround is very likely. Still-undefeated Illinois might be at the top of this group. If not the Illini, Iowa. The Hawkeyes are somewhat quietly being very Iowa, but with an offense that occasionally explodes in the second half. Maryland can stay after a solid win over Virginia last week. If the Terps are here Michigan State has to be, though the Spartans’ next three are at Boston College, Ohio State, at Oregon. I’m still not sure what to make of new-look Washington, but it seems headed for 7-5-ish. Rutgers has earned a move up from the offseason, though we’ll learn a lot about the Knights this week at Virginia Tech. Minnesota, based on the initial odds, was at the bottom of this tier to start, but has moved closer to the middle in my mind. I’m keeping a close eye on the Gophers as another team that might end up much better than the offseason consensus.
The Probably Nots
Feels harsh to have Wisconsin here, but a three-game homestand to start the season produced two uncomfortable wins and a completely comfortable win for Alabama. The already sporadic offense will now likely be without starting QB Tyler Van Dyke for a significant stretch. UCLA only needed two games—a tougher-than-it-should-be win over Hawai’i and a blowout by Indiana—for its one-tier slide. Haven’t seen anything too alarming from Northwestern based on the lowered expectations I had for the Wildcats in 2024, but I also haven’t seen anything to make me move them up. Purdue? Well, you did it to yourselves. Or Notre Dame did by laying down the worst defeat in Boilermaker history, 66-7.
Still a lot of football left, and this might look drastically different in three weeks. These sorts of exercises are only good if they change with new information.
What’s Next?
Newly minted top-25 Illinois arrives this week for a Friday night tilt. Rhule put a lot of emphasis on the Huskers’ trip to Illinois last year, and Nebraska’s win there started a three-game winning streak. Now the Huskers are trying to extend such a streak. This will be another nice spotlight for the program after Nebraska drew rave reviews for its performance against Colorado.
That’s one interception on 81 dropbacks, a 1.2% interception rate.
Five against UTEP, three against Colorado.
To paraphrase, this number is meant to measure how often the average top-25 team would have the same game control against the same schedule. This is a number meant to mimic Playoff committee behavior. That group cares a lot about “game control,” and it should. It’s telling.
Today’s inspiration courtesy of Rival Schools. I wore this album out when it was first released. Still a great band name, still a great album cover.
Ohio State, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA and USC have all only played two games.
Also, check out Indiana’s schedule. I doubt we’ll get there, but the odds would say undefeated Nebraska at undefeated Indiana on Oct. 19 is more probable than not.