Will Nebraska be above .500 at any point this season?
If the Huskers are to have a winning record at any point in Matt Rhule's first season, beating Louisiana Tech is imperative. Here's how they do it.
Get out your Nebraska football schedule and a pencil1 and let’s try to answer the question in the headline.
The Huskers’ best chance to be above .500 in 2023 passed with the loss at Minnesota. Their next best chance ended a week later in Boulder. Win against Colorado, beat Northern Illinois and you’re 2-1 with a great chance to get to 3-1 against Louisiana Tech, which is the most probable win left (84%) on Nebraska’s schedule.
Instead, beating the Bulldogs will only get the Huskers to .500. Will they be able to top that in the remaining eight games against Big Ten opponents? We could just go with our gut to come up with an answer, which is fun, but it’s more fun after we’ve looked at the numbers.
ESPN’s FPI has win probabilities posted for all of Nebraska’s remaining games. Those numbers change with each game, so the percentages below change each week. If there’s interest in Nebraska’s chase for .500+, maybe I’ll update them later, but they are what they are as of right now.2
Using those numbers, what are the chances Nebraska gets to . . .