What we learned from 2 Nebrasketball losses
The Huskers went 0-2 against two top-10 teams, but don't panic.
Nebraska basketball is still 10x in the win column, but the Huskers’ top-10 week finished 0-2. Playing without two of its top-three scorers six days ago at No. 3 Michigan, Nebraska endured a reputation-boosting, 75-72 loss.
Returning home Sunday, Nebraska welcomed the return of Rienk Mast (flu) and Braden Frager (ankle) for a battle with No. 9 Illinois in front of a white-hot, white-out crowd. Frager led NU with 20 points in 30 minutes off the bench while Mast started the night 0-for-8 from the field and finished with 5 points over 25 minutes. Thanks to shooting 55% from 3 in the first half, Nebraska took a 6-point lead into the break, but the game was largely controlled by the Illini1 who pulled away for a 78-69 win.
By the AP poll, these were both top-10 losses. By KenPom, the Huskers lost to No. 1 Michigan and No. 5 Illinois, but for Nebrasketball skeptics—there are some out there—the 0-2 turn will probably be used as “see, I knew it” evidence.
Should it? What did we learn from the Huskers’ first two losses of the season?
The Uncharitable Stripe
Nebraska shot nine free throws last week,2 Michigan and Illinois combined to shoot 49.3 When presented with a massive disparity such as this it’s always easy to blame officiating—and there were some tough calls against the Wolverines in particular—but this might be an issue worth flagging for the future.
After Sunday’s games, Nebraska ranked 345th nationally with a .272 free throw rate,4 by far its worst ranking in one of the stats that really matter. After the Illinois game, Fred Hoiberg called the Huskers’ offense “aesthetically pleasing,” and it is. Nebraska shoots it well (23rd in effective FG%), doesn’t turn it over (10th in TO%) and seems to be in constant motion.
But if all that motion isn’t producing shots at the rim, Nebraska’s lack of a classic, off-the-dribble scorer shows up.
That’s the Huskers’ hand in this, but you can’t get completely away from officiating here. Defensively, NU doesn’t give up a bunch of cheap trips to the line, ranking 6th nationally with .237 free throw attempts per field goal attempt. Michigan climbed as high as .434 while Illinois got to .481. In the Jan. 2 game against then-No. 9 Michigan State, the free throws were about equal, and the Huskers clawed out a 58-56 win.
This is a tough one when you begin to consider tournament scenarios. Nebraska has reached unprecedented heights this season by dictating games through elite execution. But ultimately a team can’t dictate how a game is officiated.
Board-dom
The other big-picture, potential issue to show over the past week is so elemental to the game that your seventh-grade basketball coach probably harped on you about it—rebounding. It’s a little more complex at this level, but not that muchmore complex. It’s still about fundamentals and effort, which is why it’s such a popular topic among junior high coaches.
The issue worth flagging is this: Without a classic big in the rotation and a 3-point rate in the 80th percentile, Nebraska’s offensive rebound rate (25.4%) ranks 277th nationally. The Huskers engineer a lot when they have the ball, but they are not a team that’s currently built to get a ton of second-chance points.
That was a sustainable weakness on the way to 20-0 because Nebraska was elite at eliminating those same opportunities on the other end, ranking 28th in offensive rebound percentage allowed (24.2%). Against two of the biggest teams in the Big Ten, NU allowed Michigan to grab 36% of all the available offensive boards, Illinois 34%.
Second-chance points are sort of like the run game in football—to some degree, they always tell the story of the game. But is it a reflection of winning or a projection?
Depends, but as we move into February these two numbers in tandem are going to be one of the first bellwethers I look at to assess how a game is going while it’s going on. Nebraska won its first 20 games of the season by playing high-level, execution-powered basketball. It requires a lot of effort.
But now we’re in the fourth month of the season. Nebraska nearly beat Michigan without two of its best players. It got Frager back for Illinois—and his 20-point outing was certainly encouraging—but Mast didn’t appear to be himself after a serious bout with the flu. Like officiating, you can’t really dictate injuries or illness.
The real enemy of effort, however, is fatigue, and that’ll be something to watch in the weeks ahead. Nebraska isn’t alone in that regard, and we’re far from ringing any alarm bells with the Huskers now just a game back of the two teams it just lost to in the Big Ten standing. By KenPom, NU is a likely favorite in seven of its nine remaining games. Those lofty bracketology projections aren’t going anywhere based on a pair of losses.
But they’re only valuable if you use them to learn a little something. We’ve seen what it takes to beat this Nebraska team, and it remains a pretty high bar.
For most of the first half it felt like NU was a bit fortunate to be in the game—which I took as a good sign on their home floor—and then an 11-0 run pushed the Huskers in front right before the half. Turns out, the run was the noise while the rest of the first half was the signal. Nebraska’s 3-point shooting came back to earth and Illinois—with the top-rated offense in the country by KenPom—hit some tough shots in the second half while also going 16-for-18 from the free throw line.
Made seven of them, so that’s nice.
Made 40 of them, so that’s unfortunate. If you’re scoring at home, NU was outscored by 33 points at the line over the past two games and lost by a combined 12 points.
That’s free throws attempted divided by field goals attempted.