Great article! And as such, made me ponder some things:
First, I am curious what the percentage of the overall pool is for each position in the top 300 or 500 players by year and how does it compare to what the Cornhuskers did?
Second, what is the proportional success rate for each position?
Third, what is the influence of the portal success on recruiting each position? If they pulled an edge out of the portal, they didn't need to recruit quite as hard, right?
1. This isn't farm-fresh data, but it is relatively robust. In 2017, I did a big research project on where top recruits come from, using the Rivals 250 players from 2004–16. Over those years the prevalence by position was: OL 16% | WR 14% | DE, DB, LB, RB 11% each | DT 8% | QB, ATH 7% each | TE 3%.
Rivals didn't list OT separately then, but I'd guess they were slight majority of the 16% labeled just as OL. Again, that's old data, but I'd be surprised if it has changed drastically over the past eight years; definitely fewer RBs, maybe more TEs and ATHs. If you're interested in the original article, it's a big, beastly thing, but there's an archived version here: https://web.archive.org/web/20201020144258/https://hailvarsity.com/s/1537/the-center-of-the-recruiting-universe
2. I have the data to play around with this, for Nebraska at least, but I'd just need to settle on a definition of success. If anyone has any thoughts on that, happy to hear some ideas. What constitutes a successful recruit?
3. That seems right, though I wonder if there isn't a pendulum effect to it. Miss on a high school LB, maybe you cover it up in the portal, which means maybe you don't take an extra LB the next cycle, etc. That's actually an idea I've toyed with a bit: Which positions will you "always" be able to get in the portal? We'll see how the two imports turn out there this year, but based on the recent past at NU at least, I'd say WR. Makes some sense because we know they're plentiful, but what are the others? And where is it going to be hard to rely on the portal?
Great article! And as such, made me ponder some things:
First, I am curious what the percentage of the overall pool is for each position in the top 300 or 500 players by year and how does it compare to what the Cornhuskers did?
Second, what is the proportional success rate for each position?
Third, what is the influence of the portal success on recruiting each position? If they pulled an edge out of the portal, they didn't need to recruit quite as hard, right?
Thank you again.
Thanks! All good questions.
1. This isn't farm-fresh data, but it is relatively robust. In 2017, I did a big research project on where top recruits come from, using the Rivals 250 players from 2004–16. Over those years the prevalence by position was: OL 16% | WR 14% | DE, DB, LB, RB 11% each | DT 8% | QB, ATH 7% each | TE 3%.
Rivals didn't list OT separately then, but I'd guess they were slight majority of the 16% labeled just as OL. Again, that's old data, but I'd be surprised if it has changed drastically over the past eight years; definitely fewer RBs, maybe more TEs and ATHs. If you're interested in the original article, it's a big, beastly thing, but there's an archived version here: https://web.archive.org/web/20201020144258/https://hailvarsity.com/s/1537/the-center-of-the-recruiting-universe
2. I have the data to play around with this, for Nebraska at least, but I'd just need to settle on a definition of success. If anyone has any thoughts on that, happy to hear some ideas. What constitutes a successful recruit?
3. That seems right, though I wonder if there isn't a pendulum effect to it. Miss on a high school LB, maybe you cover it up in the portal, which means maybe you don't take an extra LB the next cycle, etc. That's actually an idea I've toyed with a bit: Which positions will you "always" be able to get in the portal? We'll see how the two imports turn out there this year, but based on the recent past at NU at least, I'd say WR. Makes some sense because we know they're plentiful, but what are the others? And where is it going to be hard to rely on the portal?