What are the odds the Blackshirts improve in 2025?
It might be crazy to think Nebraska's defense will, but it's not if you get the right number.
“I’ll give you 3-1 odds that Nebraska’s defense this year won’t be better than last year’s.”
For reference, you and your friend have already agreed that the SP+ defensive ratings will be the measure of record for this proposed wager. The Huskers ranked 12th with a rating of 15.8 in 2024, sixth at 13.9 in 2023. The bar here is high.
And the reasonable expectation for the Blackshirts has to be lowered entering 2025. They lost two d-line starters to the NFL, another starting lineman and a linebacker to the portal and two pass-rush specialists who rated among the best in the country at that skill specifically by Pro Football Focus. Nebraska lost the coordinator of those two, top-15 defenses to Florida State and, in addition to a new DC, is also working in four new assistants on this side of the ball.
On its face, it would seem crazy to take the “improved” side of the bet here given all of the above. You know that, but you also know if the odds are right, crazy can be sane or even sound.
Me? I’d take my friend’s bet for $10 if he’s offering to pay $30 if I win. Based on the last three years of college football, I think that’s an overlay. The true odds of Nebraska improving defensively in 2025 might be closer to 2-1.
Let me explain.
Out of curiosity on a Sunday afternoon, I became compelled1 to look at what power-conference defenses with returning production similar to Nebraska’s—52%, 74th nationally—did in terms of SP+ rating compared to the previous season. Then I planned to look at any circumstantial factors that might apply to whatever the numbers turned up.
Here’s what I found: Between 2022 and 2024 there were 24 power-conference defenses that returned between 50% and 55% of their production. Eight of those teams improved their defensive ratings despite the low returning production, which means 16 didn’t.2 On average, a defense in this spot saw its rating decrease by about 9%.
Before we fill in some gaps, an important potential caveat: I’m not sure there’s evidence yet that experience matters less in today’s college football, but there is evidence it’s less common in the transfer era. Nebraska’s 52% back on defense ranks 74th this year. It would’ve ranked 92nd two years ago and 97th three years ago. Almost every team is a little less experienced these days.
Let’s start with the defenses that improved with comparatively little returning production. Only two of the eight had an SP+ rating lower than 20—Nebraska’s territory the past two seasons. Last season, Notre Dame’s defense improved from 16.7 to 14.1 (7th) despite some heavy losses. It helped fuel a run to the national championship game. The other closest comparison was Kansas State in 2022, which improved its rating from 19.0 to 15.7 with just 55% of its production back on defense. That was Chris Klieman’s fourth season, and while the Wildcats had to replace some production, they still had some stars. Five defenders landed on preseason award watchlists, and end Felix Anudike-Uzomah was the preseason Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year and a future first-round draft pick.3
Those are the two best examples of good defenses getting better despite the odds. The other six gainers were average-to-below-average defenses making slight improvements.4 Two of those—2024 Washington and 2022 Duke—were under first-year (and well-regarded) head coaches, a circumstance that doesn’t apply in Lincoln.
Now for the bigger slice of the pie, the defenses that regressed. The big takeaway here is that while the average defense that improved got about 15% better, the average defense that didn’t improve was about 30% worse. Not only was regression the more common outcome for a defense with 50-to-55% returning production the past three seasons, but it was also more severe.
There were some exceptions. Michigan had to replace five draft picks on defense off its 2023 national-championship team, and the Wolverines’ rating fell from 7.2 to a still very good 15.1. Iowa had just 55% of its production back in 2023, so it dropped from 5.1 (2nd) to 9.3 (3rd). Nebraska isn’t as talented as Michigan nor is its track record for good defense as firmly established as Iowa’s—though Matt Rhule’s track record across multiple college stops is impressive—but if this was the “drop” we’re talking about for the Husker defense in 2025, you’d take it.
This simple exercise based on one factor (experience), however, did more to confirm what I already thought about the Blackshirts in 2025—it’s reasonable to expect regression. Not a given, but reasonable.
But this is June, a time for dreaming the biggest possible dreams for your team, not a time for manage your expectations, so what would it take for my hypothetical friend to pay me $30 instead of me paying him $10?
I’d start with the following list:
Vincent Shavers Jr. looks like a future star at linebacker. The future needs to be today, not tomorrow.
I’d say many of the same things about defensive lineman Riley Van Poppel, though given he plays in the trenches, a star-making turn in 2025, his first season as a presumed starter, seems less likely than 2026.
Missouri transfer Williams Nwaneri is a more talented player based on high school recruiting rankings than Tony White had on either of his two NU defenses. If Nwaneri looks that way right away, that will help things.
Nebraska’s secondary is deep and experienced, but it would be nice if it had an identifiable nose-for-the-ball playmaker or a lockdown corner that opposing teams have to plan around. Maybe, after a promising first season in Lincoln, Ceyair Wright can be either of those things. Bonus points if he’s both.
The wildcard here: Maybe Nebraska doesn’t just get improved special teams, but actually good special teams. That probably helps the defense more than offense, and this looks like a defense that could use the leg up if it wants to remain top-25 good.
I don’t expect Nebraska’s defense to be better in 2025. Most of the upside is on offense, but it doesn’t mean I wouldn’t bet on the Blackshirts if the odds are right. At 2-1, if we could play this upcoming season 10,000 times, I’d expect to break even with my friend.
Give me 3-1, however, and I’d feel decent about coming out ahead.5
The compulsion hit me about the time Oklahoma hit for the cycle in an inning during its 17-1 win in the North Carolina Regional to end Nebraska baseball’s season. Funny how that worked.
And that’s why I wouldn’t take anything lower than 2-1 for this hypothetical bet.
I think it’s a safe bet that Nebraska won’t have five defenders make the preseason watchlists in 2025, but see what odds your friend will offer.
With one exception: 2022 Illinois pulled off the ultimate shocker of this group, going from a decent 21.8 in 2021 to a holy-crap 5.5. That was Bret Bielema’s second season.
At Brandon’s Sportsbook & Sideline Cape Emporium, you’d only find even money on “Will Nebraska improve its defensive SP+ rating in 2025?” House has to have an edge, particularly when cape sales ain’t what they used to be. That’s why we diversified.
With your knowledge of numbers, I wouldn't bet against you . . .
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