The Year 2 'hype nadir' of highly-touted QBs

If it seems like there's a lack of buzz around Dylan Raiola entering his second season, that might be normal. It's probably not a bad thing.

Courtesy of Nebraska Athletics

Heisman Trophy odds released in winter might not be a useful barometer for anything, but they are, I think, capable of serving as a buzz-o-meter. An oddsmaker’s job when releasing such odds is to 1) set odds close enough¹ to realistic probabilities that the sportsbook doesn’t have a major liability (i.e. reduce risk), and 2) try to anticipate the players people might most want to bet on (i.e. increase wagers). It’s the latter objective I’m interested in here.

About this time six years ago, Nebraska quarterback Adrian Martinez was one of the players the oddsmakers priced as the five most likely to win the Heisman in 2019. At +600, he was tied for third with Oklahoma QB Jalen Hurts and Ohio State QB Justin Fields.² Alabama QB Tua Tagovailoa and Clemson QB Trevor Lawrence were the only two with shorter odds than that trio.

That sort of buzz around Martinez didn’t feel out of place then. He was probably the brightest bright spot from Scott Frost’s first season in Lincoln, throwing for 2,617 yards with 17 touchdowns to eight interceptions and rushing for 629 yards with eight more TDs. I probably wrote or (more likely) assigned and edited a story on how Martinez was among the five Heisman favorites for 2019. The buzz around Nebraska entering Frost’s second season and the excitement around Martinez was such that I don’t remember anyone thinking those Heisman odds were wildly out of line.

I returned to those odds this week because I’ve noticed a distinct lack of buzz around Nebraska’s current quarterback, Dylan Raiola, entering his second season. He had a ton of buzz last year as a 5-star recruit who surprisingly flipped to his dad’s alma mater, but after a good-but-freshman-like first season he seems like an also-ran in the national offseason discussion. Maybe they’re right.

Or maybe I’m right because I think Raiola—after inevitably having unrealistic expectations placed upon him as a true freshman—might be undervalued as a sophomore who put up good but not impossible-to-ignore numbers. As with winter Heisman odds, we’ll only know who was most accurate once we’re into the next winter. But there’s at least a decent case to be made for Raiola now.