Consider the Big Ten’s two NUs. If you’re an alum of Nebraska or Northwestern there is only one NU, but I’m an alum of neither so I sit this one out. Two NUs.
Northwestern is 6-1 having hammered Rutgers, 42-14, Saturday. The Wildcats’ best win is over fading Penn State, (3-4, 30th in FPI). Their best performance is still a six-point loss at Indiana (6th). FPI gives Northwestern a 20% chance of making the College Football Playoff at this point.
Nebraska is 5-2 coming out of a bye week. The Huskers’ best win is a road victory over Michigan State (2-6, 64th). Their best performance is still a three-point loss to Indiana. FPI gives Nebraska a 9% chance of making the Playoff.
What’s the difference between the two NUs? FPI rates Nebraska slightly higher than Northwestern, 13th versus 20th, and would make the Huskers about a three-point favorite on a neutral field. Nebraska is the fourth-best team in the Big Ten per FPI.1
The real difference is Nebraska’s one additional loss in conference play. If you had to give it a name…I don’t know…you could call it Oregon.2 At 6-1 the Huskers have at least a 20% chance to make the CFP this week, same as Northwestern,3 maybe even up to 25%.
That’s the estimated cost of the Oregon loss, but it’s also useful for setting a benchmark for the rest of the season. Nebraska is not eliminated from the playoff conversation right now. This season should be judged from here by how long that remains the case.
This might be the last year the Big Ten crowns a champion with any oomph thanks to the forthcoming 24-team playoff, which would eliminate conference championship games. Prior to that either a) the Big Ten champ played every other team in the league, or b) the champ played at least half the teams in the league and won the conference title game.
It is perhaps fitting then that in this last year of rules and order the Big Ten doesn’t make a ton of sense. Based on the current conference title odds from DraftKings, Ohio State (-134, 57.3%) and Indiana (+184, 35.2%) are still the favorites. They were two of the three favorites in the preseason along with Oregon, but the Ducks at 4-3 have plummeted from a 27% (+270) chance to 1.4% (+7000). Michigan, Penn State and Washington—fourth, fifth and sixth in the Big Ten based on preseason conference title odds—currently have no title odds at DraftKings. They’ve been replaced, effectively if not directly, by UCLA, Wisconsin and Northwestern.
None of those teams has as good a shot now at winning the Big Ten as Oregon did based on preseason odds. Probabilistically, it’s a two-horse race between Ohio State and Indiana. But this is still an upheaval. Imagine saying in the offseason that Oregon, Michigan and Penn State will have almost no role in deciding the Big Ten title but UCLA, Wisconsin and Northwestern will.
That’s where we’re at entering Week 9. Nebraska’s conference title odds haven’t shifted drastically from the preseason—from 0.6% to 0.7%. In almost all of the power rankings the Huskers have improved their standing more than that.
Believe what you want—and there’s ample evidence4 for skepticism—but Nebraska can impact what happens over these final five games. It has a drastically increased its likelihood to win any of the remaining games.
That’s the past even when we’re looking at models that try to predict the future. Much of the conversation around Nebraska since the loss to Oregon has been about what the Huskers haven’t done or very recently failed to do in familiar ways. All valid.
But this is, as we interact, one of the 30 teams with a better than 5% chance to make the playoff per FPI.
Would eight wins be enough to represent progress under Rhule, or, given the context of the first seven games is nine wins the conversation starter?
I’m not sure a win total matters. Nebraska has a team good enough to be defined by something else. The best-case scenario is NU wins the next three games and has yet another chance to strike a decisive blow against Ohio State on Nov. 21.
The worst-case scenario is Nebraska loses, at home, to Washington this week and that opportunity is lost.
That’s the week we’re walking into. The Big Ten is a mess but has other, more likely usurpers. Can the Huskers say, “No, we’ve earned this place?”
To this point they probably have. What happens next is up to them.
Not that FPI is some source of football gospel. It’s just easy to use and frequently updated. Nebraska is also fourth in the Big Ten in SP+.
Northwestern’s next game is at Oregon against a Duck team coming off a humbling loss that was preceded by a decent win. Sound familiar?
Northwestern’s remaining strength of schedule is the 12th toughest, Nebraska’s is 34th. The Wildcats still have to play at Oregon, Ohio State and Minnesota and host Iowa and Illinois.
Post-bye week, Nebraska is 7-13 under Matt Rhule.
Is it too early to start celebrating the B1G and the SEC only getting three teams in the playoff each?