The best defense in the country you say?

That's Nebraska's goal in 2024, and it's not crazy based on last year. But getting there might not have much to do with the defense.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

This is spring football, so the future is limitless. Aim high, say whatever you want. People may scoff or smirk, but nobody can disprove anything right now.

For example, Nebraska’s coaches are talking about being the best defense in the country in 2024.

“We do want to be the No. 1 defense in the country,” defensive coordinator Tony White said this week. “But all that is words until guys adopt it and live it every day.”

This is the time to say those things. North Texas maybe had the worst defense in the country last year, and it should be saying it wants to be the best right now. Maybe a more relevant example: Nebraska’s offense, pretty bad in 2023, should be aiming for best in 2024.

Once you say it out loud and outside the locker room, however, it’s inevitable observers will take notice and start trying to assess how realistic such a goal might be.

Here’s my assessment: Best isn’t out of the question for the Blackshirts this season. They were quite good a year ago. On paper, they have the returning experience, early odds and a schedule that point towards improvement in 2024.

But what is “best?” How do you measure it?

Points is the bottom-line answer, the only currency accepted at all 134 FBS branches nationwide. Maybe it’s too bottom-line because how do you prevent points? That’s easy to assess when its fourth-and-goal from the 1, but what about when it’s first-and-10 at the opponent’s 25? Most defenses won’t give up a touchdown in that scenario, but what’s a win?

To set a baseline for this “best in the country” feasibility study of Nebraska’s defense in 2024, here are a handful of rankings I think are important from 2023. We’ve got success rate¹ and explosiveness,² twin pillars that probably explain about 70% of football success. We have to include points somewhere, so points per play offers a more microscopic view than points per game. For context we need to know what defenses were working with and against, so field position and plays defended per game are included. Finally, if you just want something of an all-encompassing measure, there’s the SP+ defensive rankings, which combine a bit of everything I’ve already mentioned and adjust it for the strength of the opponent.

Here's where the Huskers landed in 2023:

First, as it pertains to determining the best defense in any given year, I don’t have much problem giving that title to Michigan for 2023. The Wolverines were extremely talented and perhaps preternaturally prepared, a potent combination. They kept teams off schedule, were tough on their half of the field, had a big margin for error with opponents’ field position and, as often happens, the only way to hurt them was via the big play, but those are ephemeral enough that not being top-five nationally when you are in almost everything else is barely a weakness at all.

Second, I look at the SP+ rankings almost as soon as they’re available each week but I usually focus on the overall rating. I was somewhat shocked to see Nebraska ranked sixth nationally on defense. Even that high, the Huskers were behind four Big Ten teams, but with the production the Blackshirts return they should absolutely be within striking distance of being the best in the country.

How do they get there?

Don’t take maintenance for granted

Defensive line coach Terrence Knighton, who leads what should be Nebraska’s best unit on that side of the ball in 2024, defined good defense this way:

“Ultimately, stopping the run, taking the ball away and getting off the field on third downs is what it comes down to…”

I won’t argue with any of that, but I didn’t include any of those categories in the stats snapshot above. Here’s why:

• Third down: It’s undeniably important and, even in an era when more teams go for it on fourth down, represents the make-or-break point in a series. But you’ve got to defend two downs to even get there. A defense that rarely forces third downs, even if it’s good there, probably isn’t very good. That said, for as good as NU’s defense was elsewhere in 2023, it wasn’t amazing on third down (45th nationally) so it does represent an area where the Huskers could improve quickly if their overall quality doesn’t dip.

• Takeaways: Here’s another potential shortcut to best-in-the-country status. Nebraska wasn’t particularly good here last year, ranking 100th with 1.2 takeaways per game. We already know the internal goals for takeaways are lofty, and if the Huskers reach them it could paper over a few new holes elsewhere. Emphasize takeaways all you want—as most teams already do—I’m just not sure it’s the sort of thing you can program with an extra line of code. You can tell a cornerback that dropped an interception and failed to recover a fumble last year not to do it this year, but he wasn’t trying to the first time around.

• Stop the run: If there’s a folklore to football it probably involves the running game, both executing it on offense and stopping it on defense. But there can still be a symptom-or-cause problem here. It would be rare to find a good defense that was awful against the run, but being good against the run may not be enough on its own to guarantee good defense. Still, it’s better to be tough on opposing ground games than not, and Nebraska was a year ago, ranking 18th in rushing success rate allowed and sixth in rushing yards per play.

More important for Nebraska’s defensive goals in 2024 is not slipping from the overall standard it set last season, something White noted.

“I’ve said this from day one and I’ll say it until the end of the season, this group of guys, they haven’t done anything. This group, together, we have not done anything yet. It’s like building a building. It starts with the little things, making sure they know what to do, know how to do it, and then enforcing the little things.”

If the Huskers force more stops on third down (possible) and more takeaways (random), it would be lighter fluid on the fire they built in 2023, but that fire still has to be going for it to matter. While it’s probable the fire is still burning with Nebraska returning three of its top four in tackles, tackles for loss and sacks from last season, you never truly know until you know.

If that happens, best-in-the-country status might not have much to do with the defense at all.

Better balance is Blackshirts’ best bet

Back to the table above. In the four categories that are primarily about playing defense, the Huskers ranked no worse than 22nd. Field position and plays defended per game, however, are as much about the offense (and some special teams).

An offense that stays on the field keeps the defense off it. An offense, plus special teams, that can at least flip the field gives the defense more room to work. That’s obvious stuff, but when considering Nebraska’s previous defense, it’s important to understand that it made its gains in 2023 despite less-than-ideal conditions.

Here, the heat map will show you:

Of the top 10 SP+ defenses in 2023, only Iowa’s was paired with a worse offense than Nebraska’s. The Blackshirts were also working with the 105th-rated special teams, 52 spots lower than the next closest team with a top-10 defense.

Moving either of those phases closer to average might do more to improve the Husker defense than anything the defense could do itself. Move both closer to average and, if the defense is simply as good as last year’s, it could be in contention for best-in-the-country this year.

That can, and should, be the goal of every defense right now. Aim high, say whatever you want.

But in Lincoln, it could be a fall reality instead of just a spring slogan.

1. A measure of how often the defense prevents the offense from gaining 50% of the yards needed on first down, 70% on second down and 100% on third or fourth down. Think of it like on-base percentage.

2. A measure of the magnitude (using expected points added) of an offense’s successful plays. Think of it like slugging percentage.