Signal or noise?
Looking at three key Nebraska numbers from non conference play and discussing their sustainability.
Bud Crawford won his big fight Saturday night and Matt Rhule was there to witness it, hopping on a plane after the Houston Christian game and traveling to Las Vegas with AD Troy Dannen and both of their wives. Crawford, an Omaha native who Rhule is clearly quite inspired by, defeated Canelo Alvarez by unanimous decision as about a 3-2 underdog.
Now it’s Nebraska football’s turn in its biggest bout so far in 2025?
Michigan is a historical heavyweight in any context, but this year’s (and last year’s) Wolverines (2-1) have been a bit off the pace of their recent past when they road-graded their way to three straight Big Ten titles, culminating in the national title in 2023, Jim Harbaugh’s final season in Ann Arbor.
Or are they? No. 21 Michigan responded to its first loss of the season, 24-13 at Oklahoma, by destroying Central Michigan, 63-3, on Saturday. The Wolverines rushed for 381 yards and eight touchdowns. True freshman quarterback Bryce Underwood contributed 114 on 9 carries after “carrying” five times for -6 in his first two starts. That’s a new wrinkle and sure to be a major talking point in Husker circles this week.
Michigan’s other data point is a better-than-it-looks, 34-17 win over New Mexico in Week 1. The Lobos look a little live so far this season and very well could be a bowl team after smacking UCLA, 35-10, on Friday. The Bruins fired head coach DeShaun Foster yesterday just 15 games into his tenure.
But the Wolverines only opened as a 1.5-point favorite over Nebraska (3-0), which will chase its first win over a ranked opponent since slipping by No. 22 Oregon in 2016. I’ll have a full, in-depth preview of Huskers-Wolverines on Thursday for our paid subscribers, so this quick setup is just a hopeful reminder to enjoy this week. It’s a big game, big enough to be included in all the national preview roundups, and these kinds of weeks have been too infrequent in Lincoln of late.
One’s here now, however, and it feels big not just because of the two programs involved, but because the Huskers are doing some things that haven’t been all that typical recently, too.
There are a handful of numbers from nonconference play that jump out to me—yes, even given the past two opponents—and I wanted to highlight three of them to try to understand if we’re looking at signal or noise after three games.
3.0 yards per pass attempt allowed (1st nationally)
The national leader in this category hasn’t averaged fewer than 5 yards per attempt, so this number is guaranteed to go up as NU moves to Big Ten play, but I wouldn’t call it noise just yet. Nebraska has held all three opponents thus far below 70 yards passing, the first time that’s happened in Lincoln since a four-game stretch to open the 1990 season.
Extremely stingy against the pass is what the Husker defense should be in 2025, given the group it has in the secondary, and is probably what it needs to be. Better passing attacks are on the horizon, but in its two games since averaging 2.8 per attempt against NU, Cincinnati has averaged 13.9 and 15.71 against Bowling Green and Northwestern State. It’s Bowling Green and Northwestern State, sure, but that’s still basically all-or-nothing, with the Blackshirts providing the nothing.
Mark me down for “signal” here, though how close the Huskers remain to a top-15 level might have something to do with the next number.
7.6% sack rate (44th)
So far, it’s fair to say we’ve gotten almost exactly what was fair to expect from a John Butler defense. He’s been a secondary coach most of his career, and with the most veteran position group on the team at his employ, the secondary has been a school of sharks. All of the offseason talk about increased aggressiveness has proven out, too, with the Blackshirts’ blitz rate up from both of the previous Tony White-led seasons
Despite the latter, NU ranks just 83rd with 5 sacks, all coming against Akron and HCU. That number looks significantly better when you put it in the context of just how infrequently opponents have dropped back against this defense. The 22 attempts per game defended ranks as the ninth-fewest.
So far, Butler’s defense hasn’t really seen the downside of upping the aggressiveness. The Blackshirts rank third nationally with just three plays of 20-plus yards allowed and sixth in opponent third-down conversion percentage (21.1%). Numbers like that don’t feel particularly sustainable because Nebraska seems to be occupying a neighborhood that isn’t all that realistic.
Aggressive defensive football is mostly risk/reward. A team takes some risk, knowing its wins can often be virtual drive-enders and its losses will sometimes be big plays. So far, the Huskers aren’t experiencing a ton of either—the negative plays they’re after nor the big plays that are somewhat expected.
Something’s probably gonna give there, and it’s just a question of which way it breaks. So far, I’d call the decent-ish sack rate a little noisy, though you could make the case that might be true for the explosive plays and third-down success, too.
79.3 completion percentage (1st)
It’s time to start asking if Nebraska needs to open up its QB competition. Starter Dylan Raiola’s 76.6 completion percentage ranks fourth nationally, but it’s only third on the team. Backup TJ Lateef is 11-for-12 after two appearances, and third-stringer Jalyn Gramstad is 5-for-5.
OK, so nobody is actually asking that, but I look at this number and believe it’s signal. A high completion percentage is part of what you pay for when you get a Dana Holgorsen offense, and with Raiola looking like he’s taken a step forward from his freshman season, I don’t see this one dropping off a cliff.
That said, NU is looking at what might be one of its biggest challenges of the year this week. Phil Steele ranked Michigan’s defensive backs group first in the Big Ten (9th nationally) enter the year, though the Wolverines have been more of a mixed bag on the field, allowing 66.7% against New Mexico, dropping that to 61.2% at OU and then 55% last week against CMU. On the year, the Wolverines’ 62.7% allowed ranks 84th, but their 5.4 yards per pass ranks 26th and their five interceptions is tied for sixth.
More on some of those numbers on Thursday. For now, enjoy the buildup to Saturday.
Since posting a 66.2 QBR against Nebraska, Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby has gone 95.1 and 99.8 in the two games since.
I just hope that Dylan 'meat' Raiola doesn't try breathing through his eyelids during the Michigan game.