Nebrasketball, The Movie, is getting good
The Huskers are no longer rallying, they're rolling.
Nebraska’s season felt dead and buried on Jan. 26. The Huskers lost 83-55 at top-25 Wisconsin, their sixth consecutive loss in January, with two more ranked opponents up next.
Two Sundays later, and Nebraska is very much alive. It hasn’t erased the losing streak, one-for-one, but the Huskers’ 79-71 win over Ohio State Sunday ran the current winning streak to four. More than just wins, Nebraska has been impressive during this streak, beating then-18 Illinois in Lincoln, controlling then-16 Oregon in Eugene and not crumbling after bottom-of-the-Big Ten Washington was red hot in the first half.
Yesterday’s win, however, represented something different. It wasn’t Nebraska playing with the urgency of a team trying to revive its seasons. NU already had (more on that in a bit). The Buckeyes’ visit set up more as a brawl between two teams inside, but near the edge of, the bubble.
The game looked that way, too. Four lead changes, six ties, OSU leading by as much as eight, NU by as much as 11. Tense, in a word. Brice Williams (24 points, 9 rebounds) was unstoppable at times, particular as Nebraska build its lead late. Juwan Gary (19 points, 5 rebounds) had a +/- of 19, more than double any other player in the game.\
This probably wasn’t true for anyone reading this newsletter, but just in case—if you turned off Nebrasketball: The Movie because it was too bleak, it’s getting good now.
Entering Sunday—so, before the Ohio State game—ESPN had Nebraska as one of the last four teams receiving a bye in the Tournament (i.e., one of the last eight in). This site should update early today, so you can see if the Husker win generated any movement.
The Team Rankings bracket model offers a little more detail. It had NU with a 76% chance to make the dance prior to OSU, slotting the Huskers as a 10-seed. Over the past week, no team had improved its tournament chances more than Nebraska, which jumped from 39.4% seven days prior.
It is but one model, but let’s talk wins. The number to hit for Nebraska (16-8, 6-7), by Team Rankings, is 19. The Huskers’ tournament chances jump from a coin flip (49.5%) at 18 wins to 86.5% with an additional victory, and 19-12 was NU’s projected record. Again, that’s all without Sunday’s win factored in.
Nebraska has seven games remaining. By the KenPom ratings, it could be a decent home favorite against Minnesota and Iowa in March. Its next four games—Maryland, at Northwestern, at Penn State, Michigan—look like virtual tossups right now by the projected line.
Then there’s the penultimate regular-season game, a rematch with Ohio State in Columbus March 4. Team Rankings also projected the Buckeyes at 19-12. When BTN flashed its bracket projections on the broadcast, OSU and NU were the last two Big Ten teams making it in, each as a 10-seed.
Sunday’s game wasn’t a “must-win” for either team. It was something better—a game where a win simply meant a lot.
Nebraska was there because it had already won a couple of musts. The Huskers are no longer rallying, they’re rolling.
Given this program’s unique history, saying as much might raise more concern than confidence, but it’s true. The movie’s getting good.
The Huskers host No. 18 Maryland Thursday.
Odds & Ends
»After a statement win (7-1) over No. 6 Tennessee to open the season, Nebraska softball finished the weekend 3-2, run-ruling Southern Miss and Bethune Cookman while losing to No. 13 Texas Tech and No. 24 Mississippi State.
»Congrats to Cam Jurgens,1 the latest Husker to join the list of Super Bowl champs. Not a bad way to cap back-to-back Pro Bowl seasons. Say this for Scott Frost and staff—they got it right when moving Jurgens to the line. (That the future Pro Bowler never did better than third-team All-Big Ten at Nebraska also feels emblematic of how everything went around him.)
»Speaking of, Frost’s first staff at UCF is finalized and it includes Steve Cooper (OC), Sean Beckton (AHC, WRs), Mike Dawson (OLBs) and Zach Duval (S&C) from his NU days. The most interesting hire for my money: former Appalachian State head coach Shawn Clark. He’ll lead the Knights’ offensive line.
»It was a rougher Super Bowl Sunday if you were a Chiefs fan, but the conclusion of the season means Terry Bradden can join the Husker staff full time as d-line coach. He enters at an interesting time given all NU must replace up front, but I’m excited to hear him speak for the first time as a Husker. Bradden is a well-regarded coach, but he isn’t long on college experience. Makes him maybe the most intriguing hire of the offseason. At least for me.
»We’re only 198 days away from Nebraska football.
Nick Gates and Ochaun Mathis were also part of the Eagles’ roster, Gates as a backup, Mathis as a reserve squad member.