Nebraska Noir
The Huskers were perhaps playing their best game of the Rhule era, then fate sauntered into the office.
Every rebuild needs a breakthrough win, and for about 40 minutes of game clock on Saturday in Lincoln, it looked like Nebraska was going to get one in Matt Rhule’s 34th game as head man of the Huskers.
Nebraska built the USC game up. It announced Rhule’s extension two days before kickoff.1 It spent most of the week making a calculated and coordinated effort to turn the Sea of Red black. These are normal things all college football teams do but given the Huskers’ recent history of coming up short in big moments, drawing extra attention to yourself has often felt like angering the humility gods.
But to hell with those gods for a night. Nebraska just finally went out and played like all of the peripheral stories around the game—the blackout, the future, the past, the top-25 losing streak—weren’t a boulder to be pushed uphill but one that was propelling it downhill.
USC put its ultra-potent offense on the field first, and the Huskers delivered to quick punches, forcing a three-and-out and grinding out a 7-minute touchdown drive to seize the upper hand. The Blackshirts flew around all night. Got gashed on the ground—that ain’t changing in 2025—but were maybe even better-than-advertised against the pass, holding USC to a 39.1 completion percentage, the lowest of Lincoln Riley’s tenure as a head coach. Stud wide receiver Makai Lemon was limited to just two catches for 18 yards.
Up 14-6 with the ball coming out of halftime, Nebraska had built the game it needed and here was a chance to put it in a chokehold. After USC kicked off out of bounds to start the second half, Nebraska had about an 86% in-game win probability.
The Huskers went three-and-out, kicking off a wild sequence that included an Andrew Marshall interception and, a few plays later, a strip sack of Dylan Raiola that would end his night and, we learned Sunday, his season. That game had undeniably changed with NU’s starting QB on the sidelines.
Nebraska’s fight did not. We’ve learned some things about the Huskers’ resiliency in 2025. We’ve also seen that this young team is 6-3 rather than, say, 8-1 because it’s still learning how to press its advantages. The three-and-out to open the second half almost seems quaint given all that happened immediately after, but any sort of positive drive there, including one that more decisively flips field position, is valuable.
This was just the latest example of a missed opportunity, but the sort of one that’s easy to miss in the flow of the game:
Up 13-3 against Cincinnati at half, NU received the kickoff with a 90.6% win probability. It needed nine plays to cover 32 yards, turned it over on downs, and the Bearcats scored a touchdown on the ensuing drive. Game on, win probability down to 70.3%.
Up 14-7 against Michigan State at half, NU received the kickoff (89%), turned it over on downs after five plays and 23 yards leading to a Spartan touchdown (70%).
Trailing 7-6 at Minnesota at half, NU received the kickoff (60.4%), punted after seven plays covering 24 yards and the Gophers went on a 98-yard march to take control of the game (34.1%).
Nebraska still found a way to win two of those games, but neither was as easy as it could’ve been. Neither was the win over Northwestern and that one included a strong break out of the halftime gates, though that was thanks to special teams, not the offense.
This has all been great for showing Nebraska’s guts, but the next level for this program under Rhule is developing an ability to not just withstand things, but to take things.2
It was the only reservation I had coming out of the 21-17 loss to USC, a night where the Huskers went punch for punch for 60 minutes. It didn’t result in that breakthrough win, but it was still beautiful to see.
What’s Next?
With the loss of Raiola for the season to a broken fibula, I’m guessing most national onlookers, and maybe even a few locally, will freeze the Huskers’ 2025 season in amber at 6-3. At times, even as late as two-thirds of the way through the ninth game, it looked like it still could be classic, “Rhule Year 3.” Now it will be impossible to tell.
That’s fine, probably even fair. But just because Nebraska lost its starting QB, the season isn’t over. Close observers will still learn plenty about the Huskers over the remaining games.
To be clear, the loss of Raiola is a limiter. In the heat of a tense, high-stakes game, Nebraska kept it basic3 for backup TJ Lateef. He completed 5-of-7 passes, for just 7 yards, which is one of the stranger stat lines you’ll see. That won’t be the case with a full week to build a game plan around Lateef’s strengths and weaknesses.
More broadly, this can be an opportunity that doesn’t occur often in Lincoln. One of the major difficulties of the Nebraska job is you never get to play the “nobody believes in us” card. It’s hard when the stadium’s been full since the 1960s, half your road games feel like home games and the program has more than 900 all-time wins.
But with Raiola out and the “Year 3 Rhule” verdict on hold, Nebraska can just go out and try to be good over the last four games for the sake of being good. Raiola has been the focal point of NU’s efforts to return to glory basically from his first start, and that’s come with plusses and minuses for all parties involved.
Now we’re going to find out how strong the underlying structure is for Husker football. You’d rather not find out in this way, but nobody gets to choose.
I’m not going to be surprised when things look solid. And if they don’t, well, we’ll still have learned something.
And on a Thursday, which just happens to be Rhule’s final press availability each week but also the day his podcast drops, and he does the Pat McAfee Show.
Not to trigger the Cignetti-intolerant, but this is something Indiana does as well as any team right now. The Hoosiers are on pace to outscore their 12 regular-season opponents by 400-plus points right now. They will steal a team’s soul.
Probably too basic, for my money. “No fear of failure” this was not.