Nebraska got the draw it earned

That's very good news as the 4-seed Huskers seek the program's first NCAA Tournament win against 13-seed Troy.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

When I checked Bracket Matrix Sunday morning, Nebraska still looked like a decent bet to land a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament, appearing on that line on more than 70% of 129 projections. The selection committee had it different about 12 hours later, making the Huskers the 4-seed in the South Regional.

Nebraska will chase the program’s first NCAA Tournament win against 13-seed Troy in Oklahoma City Thursday.¹

You could quibble with the seeding a bit. The Huskers’ average projection of 3.39, returning to Bracket Matrix, was the lowest of the four seeds, and better than Virginia’s 3.57. The Cavaliers drew a 3-seed after advancing to the ACC championship game and losing close to Duke. KenPom, however, had the Huskers 14^th in Sunday’s final ratings, the highest of the 4s but not higher than any of the top-12 seeds in the bracket.

The slight slip from a justifiable 3-seed may have resulted in a slightly better matchup in the first round. As it became apparent during the CBS selection show that Nebraska was a 4-seed—NU was in the last regional announced—social media started predicting a Penn rematch from 1994. Those Quakers knocked off the 6-seed Huskers on St. Patrick’s Day, which would’ve added an annoying extra narrative element to the whole “hasn’t won a tournament game” ghost story that already haunts Nebraska.

More annoying, however? Fran McCaffrey. This year’s Quakers needed two 3s in the final 15 seconds to force overtime and eventually beat Yale in the Ivy League final Sunday. In terms of predicted power there isn’t much difference between Penn and Troy,² but the presence of a former Iowa head coach who knows Nebraska exceedingly well was a complication the Huskers didn’t need.

Troy feels better, even if it’s practically the same. Nebraska opened as a 13.5-point favorite, and now it just has to go do the thing no Nebraska team has done before.

Simple. Here’s what you need to know about the Trojans.

Big Picture

Troy (22-11) won the Sun Belt outright in the regular season and only needed two wins in the conference tournament to take that competition, too. Outside of the Sun Belt, the Trojans’ most impressive results came on a two-game California swing where they beat San Diego State 108-107 and lost 107-106 to USC two days later.

Overall, Troy went 1-0 against Quad 1 teams (San Diego State), 2-1 against Q2, 4-7 against Q3 and 13-3 against Q4. It finished the year with a Wins Above Bubble of -6.06. Winning the Sun Belt was the Trojans’ only way into the Dance, but to their credit they made that look pretty easy.

I was a bit surprised when I pulled up Troy’s roster. I expected it to be well-populated with SEC transfers, but the Trojans don’t have any. They’re more of a balanced team full of junior-college transfers. Four players average more than 12 points a game and the rotation is eight deep.

I’ve been doing advanced research on the teams Nebraska was likely to draw for a while now, and Troy was in that group, falling somewhere between “you don’t want that” and “gimme that” from a matchup perspective.

Offense

Troy’s defense doesn’t hit Nebraska in a particular area of weakness in Dean Oliver’s Four Factors—effective field goal percentage, free throw rate, offensive rebound percentage, turnover rate—which is the thing a higher seed doesn’t want to see in the first round. The Trojans limited opponents’ field goal percentage to a decent degree this year, but not as strongly as Nebraska shot it all season long.

Troy also defends without sending teams to the line often³ (good) and without forcing a ton of turnovers⁴ (bad).

If there’s a potential pressure point for the Husker offense, they ranked 11^th in 3-point rate this season (50.7%) while Troy’s defense allowed an attempt on 38.4% of possessions (148^th). Good 3-point defense is really about limiting looks, and it’s possible the Trojans will chase Nebraska off the line a bit more than the average team. After that, it’s up to how many the Huskers make, of course.

Though there’s one potential window of opportunity here. Nebraska is an upper-tier team when it comes to offensive rebounding. Troy’s defense hasn’t been all that good at limiting second-chance opportunities with a roster that tops out at 6-foot-9.⁵ If the Husker 3s aren’t falling, they might be able to generate a few extra possessions due to the Trojans’ weakness on the offensive boards.

Defense

This is Nebraska’s best foot forward, and the gaps on the slider chart are more consistent here when comparing against Troy’s offense. The Huskers are a strong defensive team, the Trojans are a slightly above average offense.

Nebraska’s losses this season shared some common traits, namely teams that could crash the offensive glass were a problem as were those who could earn points at the free throw line. Troy can check that box when it comes to rebounding, suggesting it’s probably one of the key categories to monitor early Thursday. If the Huskers are getting beat for offensive rebounds, it might be the start of an upset.

The Trojans don’t pose the same risk from the free-throw line, so that should alleviate some concern about how the Huskers’ first-round game is called. At least on the defensive end.

There is some potential here for concern over a hot-shooting team from 3, though that’s sort of just basketball in a nutshell. That said, if we return to the above assertion about “good 3-point defense,” the Huskers have allowed a bunch of tries from 3 this season (49.3%, 361^st) and Troy is happy to take those (45.6%, 54^th). If this game plays out exactly to type the Trojans might get a few more attempts from deep than they’re used to.

The good news? They only shoot it from 3 at 33.2%, 222^nd nationally.

Bottom Line

There were bad matchups to be had here for Nebraska, even as a 4-seed. Troy, making its second-straight tournament appearance, is well-rounded enough that it doesn’t present a bunch of obvious matchup danger. If the Huskers lose it should be because they deserved to rather than because they just got a tough draw. That’s freeing. That’s how seeding theoretically works.

Nebraska can’t lose. Not this team, not after this season, not against this opponent, not with thousands making the reasonable drive to Oklahoma City.

Of course, it can. But it can’t. It shouldn’t. It would be a catastrophe.

Regardless of seed, Nebraska got the draw it earned. Now earn something more.⁶

1. 11:40 a.m. Plan accordingly.

2. KenPom has Troy 143, Penn 150.

3. Nebraska doesn’t get to the line often anyway (bad).

4. Nebraska also doesn’t turn it over often (good).

5. Only two of those three players are in the regular rotation.

6. The Nebraska women also earned an NCAA Tournament bid as an 11-seed. The Huskers will face fellow 11 Richmond in the First Four on Wednesday at 6 p.m. CT. Wanted to at least note it as the timing of the bracket releases meant I couldn’t get to this matchup in time for today. Lot of other stuff I wanted in here, too: the bracket overall, wrestling, football win totals…but we’ll get there eventually.