Matt Rhule’s two NU years in context
Compared against all power-conference coaching hires since 2007, here’s where Nebraska’s current regime currently stands
What’s the right trajectory for a college football coaching hire? Seems simple enough, right? Whether inheriting a pristine program or one in need of a gut renovation, the idea is to gradually get better to the point everyone—fans, stakeholders, administrators, etc.—is happy, a level that varies by program.
Reality rarely looks like that.
Using Elo ratings as a baseline for better—we can debate that methodology later, if you wish—of the 141 power-conference hires since 2007 who could’ve been at their schools for at least five years, only about half (77, 54.6%) made it that long.1 Of those 77 coaches, zero posted Elo gains for five consecutive seasons to start their tenures. Only eight did it for four straight seasons and 13 were able to do it for three consecutive years. The trajectory everyone imagines on the day a new hire holds his press conference barely exists. Nick Saban2 didn’t make Alabama better for five straight seasons, but Hugh Freeze did at Mississippi.
A general awareness of both tenures is necessary even here, in what is meant to be a grounding exercise. Nobody ever thought Saban’s tenure at Alabama was unsuccessful and nobody thought Freeze’s was at Ole Miss until Freeze had to resign for…stuff. By the numbers—or at least the number I chose after much deliberation—Freeze was a little bit closer to the ideal hire after five years. No one will remember it that way.
This is an inexact science, but that won’t stop me from trying to force some order upon it anyway. I already did, in November after Nebraska lost to USC, and I’m returning to this “coaching trajectory” idea for two reasons: 1) Because I said I would, and 2) Because the context around Matt Rhule’s first two seasons at Nebraska has changed as the season concluded and I’ve had time to accumulate more context.
Turns out, things weren’t trending-towards-bleak as they seemed after 10 games. Now, at least, Nebraska is back in a “could go either way” spot after two seasons under Rhule.
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