Let's create some 2025 Nebraska over/unders

Because it's fun. But also informative. For fun/informational purposes only.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

Some people enjoy fantasy sports. I enjoy pretend-operating Brandon’s Theoretical Sportsbook. It has the somewhat unwieldy motto of: “Where everything is for entertainment purposes only, and you will only be paid out in the pride of being right.”

Today we’re going to look at five Nebraska over/unders for 2025 of my own making.¹ Why? Because I think it’s fun, especially now as the season draws near and we’ve gotten a good chunk of camp chatter to help inform things.

Also, I hope these can be conversation-starters for what we’re actually talking about with some of these new names and intriguing players because I didn’t just grab the first number that came to mind with these. No, I looked for some precedent to help inform the numbers and I took the liberty of pricing these propositions with a loose grounding in how probable I think both sides of the bet are. One of the perks of Brandon’s Theoretical Sportsbook is there’s no vig because it doesn’t need to make money.

Below you’ll find three totals for players on offense I find particularly intriguing and two really big numbers for the defense. Why so big? We’ll get to that.

TE Heinrich Haarberg Total TDs

Since 2015, Nebraska has had three tight ends with three or more touchdown catches in a season: Thomas Fidone II (4, 2023), Jack Stoll (3, 2018) and Tyler Hoppes (3, 2017). The Huskers have had some good tight ends over that stretch, NFL tight ends, but really big seasons, at least in terms of finding the end zone, have been rare.

Of course, all of those TEs were pretty much limited to only catching touchdowns. That shouldn’t be the case with quarterback-turned-Swiss Army Knife² Heinrich Haarberg. He’s already accounted for 13 touchdowns (7 passing, 6 rushing) over two seasons behind center, and that experience should make him a fun and dangerous player in 2025.

Could you line him up under center on third-and-goal from the 2 and say, “go get it.” Sure. In the shotgun inside the 20 as a run-pass threat? Absolutely. Is he fast enough to run away from linebackers, opening up big-play reception possibilities? Yeah.

Haarberg’s name hasn’t come up a bunch thus far in camp, which is curious and just vague enough to support whatever you want. It could mean the transition from QB to Big Ten tight end is as hard as it sounds. Or you could view it as confirmation of his secret-weapon status.

I’d be surprised if Haarberg didn’t find the end zone somehow this season, but I actually took this number down from what I initially thought because, based on recent seasons for full-time tight ends, I’m not sure how much we can expect from the receiving piece of the equation.

O/U (+160/-160): 3.5 total touchdowns

RB Isaiah Mozee Rushing Yards

When trying to assess this one, I treated Isaiah Mozee just as a running back even though he was a 4-star wide receiver when he signed with the Huskers last December. I went looking for true freshman running backs at Nebraska who did not have to be “the guy” right away, the players NU wanted to get on the field even if someone else would handle the bulk of the carries.

My first thought was Ameer Abdullah. He made his biggest splash on special teams as a true freshman, but he had the second-most carries at running back³ with 42 for 150 yards. That number is complicated, however, by the fact the Huskers had two other talented freshmen, Aaron Green (105 yards) and Braylon Heard (114), drawing some carries and yards. Combine those three into one, and Abdullah probably could’ve handled that load, and you end up around 350 yards.

The better individual example might be Terrell Newby—a 4-star, top-75 recruit—who rushed for 298 yards as a true freshman in 2013 with Abdullah and Imani Cross combining for more than 2,000 yards ahead of him. The year before, Cross had tallied 324 rushing yards as a true freshman, helping the Huskers sustain the loss of Rex Burkhead for six games. Tre Bryant hit 172 yards in 2017, Maurice Washington 455 in 2018. The last comparison, and perhaps closest match for Mozee’s skill set, came in 2019 when wide receiver Wan’Dale Robinson filled in at running back⁴ and carried 88 times for 340 yards.

Point is, there’s been some backs in recent Husker history good enough to earn carries as true freshmen—five out of six of those backs since 2011 didn’t get to 350 yards. Burkhead, firmly behind Roy Helu Jr., didn’t get there in 2009 (346).⁵

All things considered, I’m still putting this number on the high end. The buzz around Mozee is similar to that of some of the best players in a similar spot at NU, and the fact is Nebraska needs carries and yards beyond what Emmett Johnson will provide. Also nudging me a bit higher—most of the previous guys played alongside a running quarterback. The Huskers aren’t getting a ton of yards from that position in 2025, which means more for others.

O/U (+150/-150): 349.5 total rushing yards

WR Cortez Mills Receiving Yards

It’s not too hard to pencil in Nebraska’s presumed top three at receiver: Dane Key (Kentucky transfer), Nyziah Hunter (Cal) and, last year’s pleasant surprise, Jacory Barney Jr. But part of what makes NU’s receiving corps interesting in 2025 is the amount of talent behind that group, including three 4-star true freshmen.

Well, it used to include three 4-stars, but Mozee moved to running back (see above). Another, Jeremiah Jones, arrived at the start of summer and appears to be playing catch up a bit. That leaves Cortez Mills, the object of much intrigue from the freshman class.

So, what’s the best true-freshman season we’ve seen for a Husker receiver recently? We almost just watched it in 2024 with Barney making 55 catches for 447 yards (0 TDs), but Wan’Dale Robinson narrowly⁶ topped it with 40 catches for 453 yards (2 TDs) in 2019. Beyond that there’s Jaylen Lloyd’s bizarre-but-fun 2023, where he made six catches for 283 yards (3 TDs), and not much else outside those three.⁷

This is really a question of 1) do you believe Mills will be NU’s No. 4 wide receiver (I do), and 2) how do you account for a Dana Holgorsen-led offense in this? Holgorsen had a few seasons as a head coach when four receivers topped 400 yards, but more common was three with the fourth falling just short. In one season, 2014, that receiver was Daikiel Shorts (346), now Nebraska’s wide receivers coach.

Still, I’m putting this number toward the top of the realistic range, and it’s priced accordingly.

O/U (+180/-180): 374.5 total receiving yards

NU Total Takeaways

OK, these next are going to seem crazy but they’re not actually my numbers. Since at least his Baylor days, Matt Rhule has laid out the internal objective defensively of reaching 30 takeaways and 40 sacks. These are insanely high goals, but the teams literally tack their progress on the walls of the football facility.

If it’s good enough for that sort of placement, it’s good enough to ponder here.

Just two FBS teams over the past two seasons have reached 30-plus takeaways, and only 10 have managed it over the past five seasons. The last time Nebraska even approached this number was 2009 (28), which you might remember as a pretty good defense. The last time a Husker team topped it was 2003 (47!!!), which was really the start of the Bo Pelini era in Lincoln even though he’d have to wait four years to work there again.

Last year’s Blackshirts had 17 takeaways, the best mark since 2019 and the third-best since Pelini was fired after the 2014 season. If this were my number, I’d probably put it at 23.5, but there’s no need for me here. It’s already on the wall, so if you want a longshot bet with a big pride payout, take your swing.

O/U (+4900/-4900): 29.5 total takeaways⁸

NU Total Sacks

We know the internal goal here is 40 and we also know from being alive in the Huskersphere that NU returns just 4.5 of its 30 total sacks from last year.

The good news is this sacks number isn’t quite as lofty as the takeaways—10% of FBS teams have hit it since 2021. Nebraska last got there in, you guessed it, 2009 (44), but the 2013 defense almost did (38).

Personally, I wouldn’t think about taking the over on this number on anything larger than 26.5, but 39.5 it is. And, if you know for a fact Nebraska’s defense will go over on both numbers on this list, you shouldn’t be wasting time at Brandon’s Theoretical Sportsbook. Go to a real one.

O/U (+900/-900): 39.5 total sacks

Thanks for reading. Your theoretical accounts have all been credited with 500 BTSB coins, 100 per proposition above. Feel free to make your picks known in the comments below.

1. Sorta.

2. At least I think that’s the hope.

3. Behind Rex Burkhead.

4. Reluctantly filled in at running back we’d learn after he transferred to Kentucky. But that never showed when Robinson was asked to carry the ball. Credit to him.

5. That was in just nine games, however.

6. Or maybe not so narrowly when you consider he also had one of the best true freshman rushing seasons in Lincoln in recent memory.

7. JD Spielman had 830 receiving yards in his first season, but that was as a redshirt freshman.

8. If you’re curious, +4900 is about a 2% chance, which is how many FBS teams have hit that since 2021. I’m not even pricing in Nebraska’s woeful history with turnovers here.