How high can the Huskers' Blue-Chip Ratio realistically get?

And how big can they win if it mostly stays the same?

QB Dylan Raiola, a 5-star signee in the 2024 recruiting class. | Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

The beauty of Bud Elliott’s Blue-Chip Ratio is its simplicity. It’s just an approximation of a team’s talent on hand, and it’s easy to calculate—the number of 4- and 5-star recruits on the roster, divided by the total number of high school prospects signed over the previous four years.

The value of the Blue-Chip Ratio is that it works to narrow the field of potential national-title contenders for any given season. When Elliott, who writes for 247Sports, first looked at it a decade ago he found that a 50% BCR was effectively the cutoff point for team capable of winning it all in today’s game. Every national champion since 2011 has had at least half blue-chippers among their previous four recruiting classes.

There have been some close calls over the years. Michigan won the title last year at 54%, 2016 Clemson was at 52% and 2013 Florida State was at 53%, but no champion has yet dipped below the 50% threshold.

By this theory, and 247’s calculations, there are 16 teams in 2024 with the necessary talent to win the national title. You might want to sit down for this if you’re not already, but Nebraska is not among them.¹

How close are the Huskers to having a championship BCR? Could they get there? Does an expanded playoff change things? Is Nebraska doomed forever or is there a workaround?

Let’s talk through it.