Don't get Goliathed

Games against solid-foundation FCS teams are always low-upside for the favorite, but UNI-Nebraska represents the right challenge at the right time.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

A partial list of FBS teams Northern Iowa might be better than right now: Hawai’i, Old Dominion, Georgia Southern, New Mexico State and Louisiana Tech. On their own level, the Panthers might be better than the Idaho team that lost by 10 to Oregon, better than the Illinois State team that only trailed Iowa 6-0 at the half in Week 1, better than the North Dakota team that went to the fourth quarter trailing 14-3 against Iowa State.

That’s all courtesy of the all-in-one SP+ ratings¹ for Week 3, where UNI ranks 108th out of 764 college football teams across all divisions and associations. That’s 54 spots ahead of the UTEP² team Nebraska beat in the opener. The Panthers, picked ninth in the Missouri Valley Football Conference and unranked to start the season, have cracked the top 25 (21st) after a 2-0 start. The SP+ FCS rankings have them at No. 8, behind only North Dakota State and South Dakota State from the MVFC.

So far, UNI has exceeded expectations. The peak for this program under coach Mark Farley (22nd season) was playing for an FCS national title in 2005, and the Panthers have been surpassed by others in their conference since then. But this is still a tough out as FCS opponents go.

As I wrote in May when previewing Nebraska’s first four games:

Overall, this has the look of a pesky game for Nebraska. FCS teams rarely get enough credit, and FCS teams with a history of winning and long-time coaches at the helm should set off additional alarm bells. If the Huskers aren’t on their game that day, it has the potential to look more like a Big Ten game than anyone would assume four months out.

That’s all still true, perhaps truer given UNI has looked stronger than projected.

Of course, the Huskers are also ascendant through two games, climbing 14 spots in two weeks to 28th in SP+. Fan Duel opened this game at Nebraska -30.5, while SP+ projects something closer to a 21-point win.

Games against solid-foundation FCS teams are always low-upside for the favorite, but UNI’s trip to Lincoln could represent the right challenge at the right time for a Husker team that has only become trendier.

Saturday ain’t going to be trendy. Let’s break it down.