IMO Sanders (I refuse to call him "Coach Prime") is right that talent matters. If your players are more talented than the opponent it can make up for, or take advantage of, some errors. For example, if a LB takes the wrong step at the snap and isn't fast and quick enough to get back where he's supposed to be, a good QB's going to notice and throw the ball where he should have been. If a OL takes the wrong step at the snap, a faster, quicker DL is often going to beat him and get pressure on the QB.
This isn't to say talent alone is a guarantee to success in P5 college football. Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, multiple unnamed coaches have said that the Huskers have had a lot of talent on the roster. The problems were elsewhere. IMO, this is where the cliche, "Most games are lost, not won" applies. A team that doesn't execute and turns the ball over can lose to almost every other P5 team on a given Saturday.
Having a strong culture isn't a guarantee turnovers and other miscues won't occur. Under Head Coach Dabo Swinney, Clemson's had a system that attempts to measure offseason/off the field "performance." The commentators for the Tigers game vs. Duke mentioned that based on those metrics, Clemson had the fewest negatives, and overall the best offseason, they've ever had under Dabo. Perhaps that's one of the reasons they only had 1 pentalty, but it didn't prevent them from turning the ball over three times and missing a FG.
As for CU's win on Saturday, IMO the oddsmakers vastly overrated TCU. Heading into the NC game TCU was +9 in turnovers, had 30 sacks (led by DE Dylan Horton and LB Dee Winters, both of whom are now in the NFL), had the 4th most plays of 20+ yards and led FBS in plays of over 50 and 60 yards. This covered for the fact they allowed over 5 yds per play and had given up 69 plays of 20+ yards (118th heading into their CFP game vs. Michigan.) I believe they finished the season 130th in that catergory.
Against Colorado, TCU finished -1 in turnovers and gave up at least seven plays of 20+ yards. As it did last season, their offense tried to keep pace. Fewer chunk plays, -1 in turnovers, 10 penalties for 78 yards and a missed FG was their undoing.
Well said. And I agree with you on TCU. I loved the Frogs' run last year, like most everyone else, but 6-1 in one-score games? A defense that ranked 78th in yards per play? You could sim TCU's 2022 season hundreds of times and they only end up in the CFP title game two or three times.
The polls were kind of telling us this, imperfect as they are. Preseason No. 17 TCU was just the second P5 Playoff team to start the following season outside the AP top-10. That was a pretty good indication of just how much was lost from last year (and maybe also an awareness of the one-of-a-kind run required in 2022). Michigan State in 2016 was the other. After making the Playoff in 2015, the '16 Spartans opened the following season No. 12, with a new QB, and went 3-9. (Cincinnati also followed up a Playoff appearance in 2021 by opening the next season at No. 23 in the AP poll, which turned out to be about right. The Bearcats never climbed higher than No. 20 and finished 9-4 but unranked.)
IMO Sanders (I refuse to call him "Coach Prime") is right that talent matters. If your players are more talented than the opponent it can make up for, or take advantage of, some errors. For example, if a LB takes the wrong step at the snap and isn't fast and quick enough to get back where he's supposed to be, a good QB's going to notice and throw the ball where he should have been. If a OL takes the wrong step at the snap, a faster, quicker DL is often going to beat him and get pressure on the QB.
This isn't to say talent alone is a guarantee to success in P5 college football. Since Nebraska joined the Big Ten, multiple unnamed coaches have said that the Huskers have had a lot of talent on the roster. The problems were elsewhere. IMO, this is where the cliche, "Most games are lost, not won" applies. A team that doesn't execute and turns the ball over can lose to almost every other P5 team on a given Saturday.
Having a strong culture isn't a guarantee turnovers and other miscues won't occur. Under Head Coach Dabo Swinney, Clemson's had a system that attempts to measure offseason/off the field "performance." The commentators for the Tigers game vs. Duke mentioned that based on those metrics, Clemson had the fewest negatives, and overall the best offseason, they've ever had under Dabo. Perhaps that's one of the reasons they only had 1 pentalty, but it didn't prevent them from turning the ball over three times and missing a FG.
As for CU's win on Saturday, IMO the oddsmakers vastly overrated TCU. Heading into the NC game TCU was +9 in turnovers, had 30 sacks (led by DE Dylan Horton and LB Dee Winters, both of whom are now in the NFL), had the 4th most plays of 20+ yards and led FBS in plays of over 50 and 60 yards. This covered for the fact they allowed over 5 yds per play and had given up 69 plays of 20+ yards (118th heading into their CFP game vs. Michigan.) I believe they finished the season 130th in that catergory.
Against Colorado, TCU finished -1 in turnovers and gave up at least seven plays of 20+ yards. As it did last season, their offense tried to keep pace. Fewer chunk plays, -1 in turnovers, 10 penalties for 78 yards and a missed FG was their undoing.
Well said. And I agree with you on TCU. I loved the Frogs' run last year, like most everyone else, but 6-1 in one-score games? A defense that ranked 78th in yards per play? You could sim TCU's 2022 season hundreds of times and they only end up in the CFP title game two or three times.
The polls were kind of telling us this, imperfect as they are. Preseason No. 17 TCU was just the second P5 Playoff team to start the following season outside the AP top-10. That was a pretty good indication of just how much was lost from last year (and maybe also an awareness of the one-of-a-kind run required in 2022). Michigan State in 2016 was the other. After making the Playoff in 2015, the '16 Spartans opened the following season No. 12, with a new QB, and went 3-9. (Cincinnati also followed up a Playoff appearance in 2021 by opening the next season at No. 23 in the AP poll, which turned out to be about right. The Bearcats never climbed higher than No. 20 and finished 9-4 but unranked.)