Act II: October offers opportunity for Nebraska

I'm skeptical of some of the numbers here, but absent that, the Huskers' season might be decided over the second four games of the season.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

If the first four games of Nebraska’s football season—Act I as we call it around here—presents a chance to build some momentum, the second four games (i.e. October) represent the portion where the season is won or lost.

You never know what teams will actually be—particularly in our current transfer portal era—but on paper, Act II sets up well for the Huskers. Using the implied odds from the preseason SP+ ratings, Nebraska’s chances of going 4-0 in October are 22.8%, slightly better than those same odds over the first four where NU has two chalk-it-up wins against Akron and Houston Christian and two games that will be trickier, Cincinnati and Michigan.

A split against the Bearcats¹ and Wolverines, seems reasonable, but October offers less wiggle room. Nebraska, if it wants to have the season it wants to have, has to gain ground here.

That’s not a given. Personally, I wouldn’t give Nebraska as good of odds as it’s getting over these four games. That’s based on some research and having covered NU during its entire time in the Big Ten. It’s not so much about the perceived strength of Nebraska, but how much can we trust the Huskers to be as good as they “should” be?

We’ll find out in October.