A more volatile path?
Nebraska football is changing entering year three of the Matt Rhule era. Probably strategically.
The easy-to-connect dots with last year’s Washington-Michigan national championship game produced a line that perhaps pointed to more parity in college football. An Ohio State-Notre Dame final matchup may not make last year’s blip a trend, but the first 12-team playoff taken as a whole didn’t diminish it either.
On the one hand, the Buckeyes and Irish have the second- and fourth-most wins all time, respectively. They’re far from upstarts. On the other hand, Arizona State and Indiana made it after being picked to finish last and second-to-last in their conferences. Respectively, if not respectfully.
Nebraska is closer to the ASU/IU end of things than the OSU/ND side of the spectrum. Anyone who’s being honest already accepts that, but the ASU and IU examples—and you can fold in SMU1 here, too—still provided additional hope for the Huskers even though the Huskers’ 2024 was largely stationary from a big picture point of view. They won more games, the bowl win meant something and yet it’s still hard to say they’re more than a year closer to where they want to be.
But maybe college football is changing in such a fashion that it can meet Nebraska halfway. Indian’s playoff run was—without additional evidence from seasons to come—lightning in a bottle. Arizona State and SMU, however, were top-302 teams in 247’s Team Talent Composite entering the season. That’s territory the Huskers have inhabited since the dawn of the recruiting rankings. A team towards the bottom of those rankings probably still needs a few good bounces to make the playoff, but if making the real postseason is the baseline goal—and I think it is for 90% of power-conference teams—one year of results would put the cutoff line around maybe the top 40.3
Nebraska can check that box just based on its standing in the college football hierarchy. Despite the longest bowl-less streak among power conference teams entering the season, the Huskers’ floor hadn’t lowered much, at least in terms of the talent it could attract. Have a blessed season with the talent the Huskers almost always have, and such a team can get there. All other goals, until that one is reached, are aspirational.
There’s still this stylistic question, however, that I used last year’s title game to highlight. Michigan was there as the smashy team that played great defense and ran the ball. It was outside of the typical parameters for a national champion contender from a recruiting perspective, but right on the brink. That’s what I thought Nebraska wanted to be, but it had historically been a tier down from Michigan in recruiting which was a tier down from Ohio State.
Washington was there thanks to being uniquely experienced with an elite quarterback and a few elite players surrounding him, particularly at wide receiver and in the secondary. This wasn’t how Nebraska was being built a year ago, but it might be now. If 2024 didn’t represent a big step forward, Matt Rhule’s moves since November might at least indicate a change of direction. The Huskers won’t make a playoff the Michigan way, they’ll make it the Washington way.
I’m never satisfied with anything I write when it’s published, but I feel decent enough about that story from last January. I’ll at least give myself credit for this, it at acknowledged that Nebraska’s interest in Dana Holgorsen—it was only interest then—might signify a philosophical shift:
[Dylan] Raiola could represent something Rhule didn’t have at Temple or Baylor—an elite guy behind center. Nobody’s anointing him yet, but 5-stars are unique in that they get to start at “might be elite.” That’s why they’re 5-stars.
There’s almost nothing bad about landing one, of course, but does it change the blueprint? If Raiola is as good as projected, anyone think he came to Nebraska to throw it 20 times a game, like the Huskers did in 2023 (the fewest of any Power 5 team)? Probably not. Should it change the blueprint? If Raiola is as good as projected, probably so.
Nebraska’s reported interest in Dana Holgorsen was yet another indication that maybe it already has. Nobody doubts Holgorsen’s bona fides, but he started his coaching career under Hal Mumme and Mike Leach before assisting Mike Gundy and then leading West Virginia and Houston as head coach. Classic Big Ten football he ain’t. I would’ve put Nebraska’s chances of hiring an Air Raid disciple this offseason at 0%, but things change.
We know now that’s where Nebraska is headed. Not the Air Raid, but they’ve chosen the Washington way and that makes the most sense. It’s a more volatile path, for sure, but I’m not sure Nebraska, which is still pretty heavy in a historical sense, has the weight to ensure a smoother journey going the other way. Maybe that was Matt Rhule’s plan initially, but credit to him for changing it.
The clock is always ticking. Rhule making a philosophical change to his offense 1.75 seasons in is admirable and risky, but I think it’s where the data, and reality, point.
Is Raiola an elite QB capable of carrying a less-talented team into the playoff? To be determined after 2024, but I think he’s close given a few more elite pieces4 around him. You can hit on a near-elite wide receiver or two, maybe a running back.
The lesson from this year’s national championship game might be one about depth on the line. Notre Dame and Ohio State suffered significant losses on the o-line, yet they still won three games each to make it through.
If we’re talking a year from now about how Nebraska just didn’t have the offensive line depth to make a real playoff run, fair enough. That would mean it made it thanks to a sophomore quarterback no longer looking like a freshman, a couple of good bounces, a defense that doesn’t drop off and a few singular playmakers.
Seems more likely than Nebraska just out-talenting or out-executing every team it has to play.
SMU is among the parity provers, too, though by 247’s team talent rankings the Mustangs ranked 25th entering the year. That was third-best in the ACC and slightly ahead of teams like Wisconsin and Arizona State, slightly behind teams like South Carolina and Nebraska. The novelty of an SMU running through the ACC might’ve been greater than the surprise of this SMU doing it.
Ten of the 12 teams in this year’s playoff ranked in the top 30, Indiana and Boise State being the exceptions.
Beats the blue-chip ratio at least, though winning the playoff might remain another story.
And continued, top-20 defense.
TO made a change to the offense because of what OU was able to do with QBs that could run. It required offensive linemen with great feet. That offense didnt require a qb that could drop a dime. Wideouts had to block. The defense changed because of the florida teams blowing by our converted running backs. Now the rules favor passing teams and the coveted piece is the left tackle. An average qb kept clean can do a lot of damage. People who have the ability to get open quickly put a lot of pressure on a defense. These new additions have speed.
You can't coach speed, but you can purchase it.