3-1 x 3?
Yep, Nebraska can get to nine wins that way. An early, big-picture look at the Huskers' schedule.
As the last few programs still practicing this spring wrap things up, we’ve reached the schedule-discussion part of the calendar here at Counter Read. This week last year, I started breaking down Nebraska’s schedule by viewing it in three acts.
I liked that format, so those short, post-spring, opponent breakdowns will be coming over the next couple of weeks. Today’s newsletter is more of a table-setter for those, and we’ll keep things big picture.
In an earlier offseason series, The Equation, I made my case for 9-3 being the point where this 9-3 season is undeniably “good”:
Only the most combative could argue with that. At 9-3 after 12 games Nebraska would be in the playoff discussion late in the year, and better than last season. It would be 1.5 wins better than the early win totals set by the oddsmakers. In short, it would be overachieving based on measures that aspire to be predictive but also consider Nebraska’s recent past relative to all of college football.
That series looked at the numbers Nebraska would likely need to produce to get to 9-3, but as this is schedule season (at least around here), I realized there’s a simpler equation for that: 3-1 x 3.
Just go 3-1 each month of the regular season, and there you go.
At least it seems simple, but how realistic is that given the teams on the Huskers’ 2025 slate?
Nebraska has one big advantage out of the gates—seven home games, plus a neutral-site opener against Cincinnati that was originally scheduled for nice-but-more-neutral Indianapolis1 but will now be played in decidedly-less-neutral Kansas City. You could hack away at a 9-3 goal that way, and it’s not the worst path. Win all its home games and NU would only need to get two wins from Cincinnati in Kansas City and road games at Maryland, Minnesota, UCLA and Penn State.
In today’s football, I think the thirds approach is more lifelike. Certainly seems more realistic than penciling in an undefeated run at home, something the Huskers haven’t done since 2016.
Nebraska’s opening third isn’t quite as forgiving as last year’s, but it’s not far off. The Huskers are about a 6-point favorite over Cincinnati on the early line. That feels realistic—at least as much as anything can this far out—but the longer I look at the Bearcats the more I convince myself this is potentially tricky. Cincinnati is one of the most experienced teams in the country with a returning quarterback and one of the best defensive lineman in the Big 12. This won’t be a “just show up” type of game.
Get past that one and the next two games sort of are. Akron improved last year to 4-8 after going 2-10 in each of Joe Morehead’s first two seasons, but the Zips still project as a bottom-10 team nationally by most models. Houston Christian is in a similar spot in the FCS ranks and might qualify as the worst team to visit Lincoln since Bethune-Cookman in 2018, a make-up game of sorts to replace the canceled season opener…against Akron.
If the Huskers can start 3-0, it sets up a potential swing game against Michigan. The Wolverines are a strong bounce back candidate after going 8-5 in 2024, but they do have some sorting to do at quarterback. Will they be starting 5-star true freshman Bryce Underwood in what screams for a night game in Lincoln? Based on the preseason SP+ ratings, this is the only one of the first four games where NU projects as an underdog. That model would have it at NU +7, though I’m betting the game-time line will be lower than that. Nebraska put a lot of offseason eggs in the Colorado basket a year ago, and I get a similar vibe from this game.
More stuff that’s good to read between now and August
The second-third of the schedule sees the Huskers get one more home game, Michigan State, before its first true road game at Maryland Oct. 11. The buzz around the Spartans entering year two under Jonathan Smit is . . . well . . . muted. The net from the transfer portal hasn’t looked that encouraging in East Lansing, and the Spartans are mostly a motionless enigma at the moment. That said, I’d expect this MSU team to be better than the 2023 team that beat Nebraska in what is still probably the biggest missed opportunity of the Matt Rhule era thus far.
Much of the same applies to Maryland. Mike Locksley continues to recruit well, but I’m worried about the Terps otherwise as they get more transfer-reliant on both lines. Put it this way—I have a hard time picturing Nebraska having a satisfying season, undeniably or otherwise, with a loss at Maryland.
In a big-picture sense, Minnesota is still the game I’d pick first in a “Choose a Win for the Huskers in 2025” draft. I like how the Gophers are positioned—a bit undervalued, if you ask me, entering this season—and they’re the second-leg of consecutive road games for NU. You know the last Husker coach to win back-to-back road games? It was Bill Callahan in 2006.2 Since then, Nebraska has gone 0-2 eight times, 1-1 five times, for a combined record of 5-21 in this scenario. The preseason SP+ ratings make Nebraska a slight underdog at Minnesota right now.
After that, Northwestern visits for Nebraska’s eighth game of the season. Projections for the Wildcats are middling after a 4-8 season, but they added a high-value quarterback in SMU’s Preston Stone. This game doesn’t look like much in May, but it’ll be important come October.
The turn towards November and the final four games represents the toughest “get to 3-1” hill to climb in 2025, which is usually the case for the final third. It’s hard to put much stock in projections when you know injuries, coaching changes and whatever else might happen during the first two-thirds of the season might distort even the best picture we can create of these teams now. But on paper, using the implied point spreads from SP+ ratings to imply win probabilities, Nebraska pencils out at 1.7 wins over the final four games: USC, at UCLA, at Penn State,3 Iowa.
Based on preseason perception, few will expect much from Nebraska at Penn State, which might be the Huskers’ biggest advantage in that game. Based on recent history, some might think “Well, Nebraska can’t always lose to Iowa in the most painful way4 possible, right?”, which might be the Huskers biggest disadvantage in that game.
That leaves the California swing as Nebraska’s best chance to get its work done early from a wins perspective. SP+ would make NU a 1-point favorite over USC right now and it enters a high-stakes season where the Trojans might either be flying high come November or talking about future coaching candidates. I’d guess that line is heavier towards NU by kickoff.
The same model would make the Huskers about a touchdown favorite at UCLA. The Bruins are another mystery team to me, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a game-time line more favorable for UCLA. Point is, both USC and UCLA look headed for toss-up territory, which isn’t unusual for November.
Back to the 3-1 x 3 schedule math. I’d put Nebraska’s chances at achieving that, in order by third, at 1) good, 2) reasonable with some pressure to do so and 3) who knows?
I think you’d happily take that as a fan of a team where realistic Playoff aspirations still feel a way off. Such aspirations aren’t unthinkable—Indiana just made the Playoff by combining good coaching, smart roster moves and a well-paced-and-spaced schedule—but I can’t get there on schedule alone. Close, but not there.
Win back-to-back road games for the first time in 20 seasons, however, and I suddenly get even closer.
And before Indy, this was originally a Cincinnati home game at beautiful Nippert Stadium, one of the off-the-radar great sites in college football. I’ll never stop being mad this game got moved.
To be fair, Nebraska didn’t play back-to-back road games in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2014, 2015 or 2019.
Yep, that’s a double back-to-back road game swing in one season, which Nebraska hasn’t had since 2020, which was bizarro world.
Since 2018, every Nebraska-Iowa game has been decided by 7 or fewer points. The Huskers are 1-6 in those games.
Update to this Nebraska schedule discussion: Looks like the Huskers will face Michigan without head coach Sherrone Moore who, according to multiple reports, will be serving a two-game, self-imposed suspension stemming from the NCAA's investigation into the sign-stealing allegations from 2023.
My initial thoughts include: Asking how many games has Matt Rhule won in November in his first 2 years? Believing that there is no way the Cornhuskers hit the road with all their starters. At least 1 will be gone for the year. How does the rest of the year shape up if the Cube is gone for the year? The center? The #1 RB? I think 8 wins would be a good level of success this year, because I honestly don't see getting more than 7.