Was you satisfied?

Nebraska didn't beat Ohio State, but it exceeded expectations by any measure. That's worth something, maybe a lot, entering the final month of the season.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

On paper going into last Saturday, Nebraska-Ohio State was a matchup of a top-10 defense against maybe the No. 1 offense. That was the generous-to-NU, heavily redacted version because the Buckeyes had every other head-to-head advantage as well, but if you wanted to really boil things down that was a view supported by all the evidence.

Nobody really wanted to buy it based on the latest evidence, Indiana 56-7, however. I couldn’t sell myself on it for that reason.

But the simplest, most generous view is largely the game we got. The Blackshirts looked like a worthy rival of the Buckeye offense. Maybe they looked even better than that.

• Ohio State was 1-for-10 on third down, its lowest conversion percentage since at least 2016. That was despite OSU being in third-and-medium (5.9 yards to go) on average.¹

• The Buckeyes averaged 2.1 yards per rush, a season low by 2.2 yards. OSU managed 4.3 in its 31-30 loss at Oregon.

• The Blackshirts posted a 21.3% havoc rate against an offense that came in allowing 10.8% (10th nationally). That was also  narrowly better than Nebraska’s already-good season average of 20.0%.

• Ohio State’s explosive-play rate was 12.8%, 7.4 percentage points off its season average. Nebraska’s offense (12.2%) nearly matched the Buckeyes, and it wasn’t because that group was matching the Blackshirts’ excellence.

Football explosions, however, must be measured by both frequency and magnitude. That it was the magnitude that resulted in a 21-17 Ohio State win is maybe the best testimony available to the defensive effort Saturday. For most of the day, the Buckeye offense, No. 1 by SP+ entering the week, couldn’t drive the ball on Nebraska.

OSU’s first touchdown came on a six-play drive capped by a 40-yard touchdown pass. It’s second touchdown was from a four-play drive that ended on a 60-yard touchdown reception from freshman superstar Jeremiah Smith. Credit where it’s due, the Buckeyes put together a nine-play, 75-yard drive after falling behind 17-14 in the fourth quarter because that’s what great teams do—find a way. That drive started, however, with a 37-yard pass on the opening play, Ohio State’s third-longest play of the day.

All three of the longest plays were or led to the three touchdowns OSU scored, which is how explosive plays are supposed to work. It’s why nobody can stop talking about them in today’s game. The Blackshirts reducing OSU to big-play-or-bust, however, only underscored how much the Huskers are missing out on when they have the ball.

By frequency Nebraska’s 14.0% explosive-play rate is just slightly below the national average. By frequency-plus-magnitude, using collegefootballdata.com’s measure, it ranks 120th. Two of Nebraska’s eight explosive plays—rushes of 10-plus yards, passes of 15-plus yards—resulted in a touchdown drive, which means they were both on the only touchdown drive.²

Matt Rhule noted how hard the offense has had to work as a concern coming off the Indiana loss, saying NU consistently needed eight- or 10-play drives to score. He wasn’t wrong, of course. On 84 offensive drives this season after the Ohio State game, 28 (33.3%) of those resulted in points and seven of those scoring drives (25%) required six or fewer plays.³

By direct comparison to the offense Nebraska just faced, Ohio State has 80 drives on the season, 40 (50%) of those ended in points and 24 (60%) of the scoring drives required six or fewer plays.

Teams have to be able to score quick, with relative consistently, to be good in today’s game. Nebraska struggles with that in 2024.

Is the answer scheme or talent? The answer is always a bit of both. Smith’s 60-yard touchdown catch was good scheme from OSU in that it got the speedy receiver matched up on Isaac Gifford, one of NU’s best players, and then it was talent because Gifford, playing assignment sound, is never winning a footrace with Smith.

The Huskers rarely get those plays this season, either via engineering or athleticism. It’s a tough thing to work around with four games left, but we know Nebraska’s talent level isn’t changing this season. It has what it has.

But the Ohio State game said maybe that’s just enough to crawl to a season that’s still undeniable progress from Year 1. It felt like even that was off the table after Indiana. It’s not after Ohio State.

“I don’t want it to sound like a moral victory,” Rhule said Saturday, “because we lost. We’re the University of Nebraska. We’re not here to lose.”

That said, the head coach made the game something of a line in the sand for the four weeks to come.

“It’s the first time—the first time—the first time since I’ve been here that I felt a championship mindset in the locker room,” Rhule said.

I’ve never really practiced the no-moral-victories philosophy. For me, every game is did a team perform better than expected or worse, a freedom I take for myself that is often unavailable to others.

There was no question where Nebraska fell last week, just as there was no question two weeks ago.

So, let’s play these last four games.⁴

Helmet Stickers

K John Hohl: He didn’t just make three field goals when no one was sure Nebraska could make any, he made them from 39, 54 and 47 yards on the road against the best team on the schedule. If the Huskers can feel reasonably confident in making a field goal, that’s a huge development for the rest of the season.

WR Jacory Barney, Jr.: Had 10 targets—double the next Husker receiver—and made seven catches for 49 yards, which included 51 yards after the catch. I don’t know how a stat line like that even happens, but I do know that’s hard work. Barney is a building block for Nebraska in the seasons ahead.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

DL Jimari Butler: Three TFLs, including one of two sacks on the day, against the best offense he’ll face this season. Butler potentially had a (future) career-making day.

What’s Next?

UCLA comes to town off a bye week for Nebraska’s penultimate home game. It is the remaining game people will (and have) point to as the Huskers’ best shot for bowl eligibility, meaning the Bruins enter this one on something of a free roll. Nebraska opened as a 9-point favorite. The updated SP+ ratings would have the Huskers -14.5, FPI -6.5. Do with that what you will, but Saturday is not a foregone conclusion.

1. Offensively, Nebraska averaged 9.1 yards to go on third down yet somehow converted 5-of-16 (31.3%).

2. Two other Husker explosives were on drives that produced field goals.

3. Seventeen of Nebraska’s scoring drives this season (60.7%) have required eight or more plays.

4. The music for today’s headline.