The ultimate rarity

Nebraska's 28-21 win over Northwestern offered something we rarely get. It offered a clear picture of where the Huskers are entering the final month of the season.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

The game wasn’t on the line yet with more than 9 minutes left and the score tied at 21, but Nebraska was about to put it there. Having thrown a back-breaking interception near the start of the fourth quarter, the Huskers engineered a Benny Hinn-style miracle recovery with a pick to give the offense the ball with 9:11 and 64 yards to go.

Over the next 6-and-a-half minutes, Nebraska picked up three third-and-7s and a third-and-5 to deliver what would be the game-winning touchdown. The odds of picking up a third-and-7 based on national conversion rates are about 35%, so to get three in a row you’re talking about a 4.5% chance of doing that successfully. Tack on the third-and-5 and an average offense would be expected to pick up all four about 2% of the time.

This was the unwritten part of college football, or just football in general, writ large. Nebraska did something that came with a less than 5% expectation of success with 100% success. Therefore, Nebraska beat Northwestern, responded to the loss at Minnesota and unlocked optimism for the rest of the season.

We’d already seen how the narrative was different when something quite similar happened earlier this season in this stadium. Michigan effectively sealed its 30-27 win over the Huskers with a 16-play, 77-yard drive that ate up 8:46. The Wolverines picked up third downs¹ of 5, 9 and 10 yards (combined probability: 4.2%) before punching it in on third-and-goal from the 2 (2.8% for picking up all of those third downs consecutively). The Nebraska narrative was different then, one of missed opportunities and a lengthened losing streak against top-25 teams.

This happens every week all across the country. Improbable events produce winning stories, and they produce losing stories. The difference between the two is often far smaller than the stories would suggest, but there has to be a winner and loser, so the difference has to exist.

Nebraska came out on top² this time, effectively saving this season for another week. The Huskers went out, late in the game against Northwestern, and grabbed the right to have a huge night game against USC this week. They did it in a way, zoomed out from those successive third-down conversions, that feels exceedingly rare in college football. They did it in a way that offered a fairly accurate picture of where this team stands entering November.

The Huskers beat the Wildcats by 7,³ while committing to the run to a greater degree than we’ve seen and scoring 28 points against a good defense. The first seven of those points came on the opening offensive drive, credit for a good script. Seven came from special teams, and I’ll give seven to the defense for a third quarter interception that put the offense at Northwestern’s 32. With the aid of a personal foul penalty, the Husker offense scored in three plays. The final seven points was also set up by a takeaway, but the offense had to convert all those third downs and drive 64 yards, so that credit goes to the offense, playing two men down on the offensive line. In summation, I’ve got two touchdown drives for the offense,⁴ one touchdown from special teams and, effectively, one touchdown from the defense to beat Northwestern basically as expected.

If that comes across as somewhat negative, it’s not. The biggest positive here is a clearer understanding of “that’s just what Nebraska is” entering November. Needing a special teams touchdown and a score set up by the defense and a drive when the chips are down to win by 7?

That almost sounds like Iowa, a comparison that honestly was easier to make before the Hawkeyes squashed Minnesota, obliterators of the Huskers a week ago, 41-3.⁵

While the rivalry between Nebraska and Iowa has grown more contentious, post-Bo Pelini era, than anyone on either side likely thought it would when the Huskers joined the Big Ten in 2011, give most NU fans truth serum and I think the majority would tell you they appreciated the Hawkeyes’ “whatever it takes to do the job today” approach to winning games.

That’s basically Nebraska right now at a solid 6-2 with everything still to play for this season. It’s unclear if that’s understood, appreciated, hated or even part of the long-term plan.

It’s just where Nebraska is right now, and that’s better than where it might’ve been if one of those third-down conversions had come up short. The Huskers are still in the hunt for everything that was reasonable and unreasonable to hope for from 2025.

Maybe that’s behind schedule, maybe it’s not, but it’s not a bad place to be with four games left to go.

Odds & Ends

• With 124 yards rushing on Saturday running back Emmett Johnson is up to seventh nationally in total rushing yards (837) among running backs. Only Michigan’s Justice Haynes (937) is ahead of Johnson in the Big Ten.

• The Huskers’ win over Northwestern came with a 98% postgame win probability per collegefootballdata.com, and that’s how the game felt to me. Despite the tension late, and Northwestern getting the type of game it needed (low-possession), it felt like the Huskers were mostly in control Saturday.

• Northwestern’s 50% conversion rate on third down was the highest rate Nebraska has allowed this season. That the Huskers won anyway—in keeping with the theme of this—is either proof of their resilience and ability to make plays when it matters or proof of how this game could’ve easily gone the other way. If you’d told me that was going to be the rate before the game, I automatically would’ve assumed NU lost. If the spot we end up in at the end of 2025 is that Nebraska won some games without being perfect, that wouldn’t be the worst thing given the recent past.

• Circa Sports opened USC as a 6.5-point favorite Sunday and it had dropped a half-point by late Sunday night. Based on preseason power ratings, this game was projected as more of a tossup during the summer, but that’s why they play the games. If the Huskers go off as a 6-ish point underdog at home come Saturday that’s not all that different than what Minnesota experienced against the Huskers. We’ll dig into the matchup later this week, but for now NU has the chance to drastically alter its season (again) as an underdog with a home-game, night-crowd behind it. Can’t ask for much more than that.

1. Having been 0-for-8 on third down to this point.

2. Canceling out the Michigan loss given what the Wolverines did to the Huskers on a long fourth-quarter drive and then the Huskers did right back to the Wildcats? I’m not advocating for that, just something to think about. If you wanted to follow this track a little more, I would also hear arguments that Cincinnati (best win, currently) could negate the worst loss (Minnesota), which would leave us with a 4-0 team with blowout wins over the teams it paid to be blown out, alongside wins over Michigan State and Maryland. That doesn’t feel inaccurate to me.

3. Closing line: -7.5.

4. And one that resulted in a missed field goal.

5. That rout included a special teams and defensive score.