The hidden risk in Nebraska’s 3-0 start

And how it might apply to the Huskers first road trip, and first real test, at Michigan State.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

“I think this is as good a Nebraska teams as I’ve seen in a long time,” Pat Fitzgerald said Monday. The new Michigan State head coach faced the Huskers every year from 2011 to 2022 as Northwestern’s coach. When it comes to familiarity with Big Ten era Nebraska, the only coach who trumps Fitzgerald is Iowa’s Kirk Ferentz, and he isn’t gassing up NU football to this degree at a Monday press conference because rivalry still means something in this rapidly changing sport.

So, Fitzgerald is almost as good as it gets for sample size and he kind of said the nicest thing an opposing coach can given the familiarity. We don’t know how long “in a long time” is, but he first encountered NU as a coach while a GA at Colorado in 1999. The Buffaloes lost 33-30 to a Nebraska team that was top 10 at the end of the year by SP+.¹

I’m throwing that one out. “A long time” probably refers to somewhere between 2011–22, when Fitzgerald had to assess Nebraska and play it every season. Northwestern went 6-6 in those games. Fitzgerald went 1-3 against Bo Pelini, 2-1 against Mike Riley and 3-2 against Scott Frost. The best Nebraska team, by SP+, he faced was the 2012 team, which ranked 31^st at the end of the year. That team rallied for an improbable 29-28 win at Northwestern, which began a 6-0 finish to the regular season, which resulted in a drubbing by a mid Wisconsin team in the conference championship game.

You could also make an argument for 2011 Nebraska, which was 7-1 and ranked ninth in the AP poll when Fitzgerald and Northwestern beat the Huskers 28-25 in Lincoln. That team finished 39^th in SP+.

If you take Fitzgerald at his word,² the best Nebraska he’s seen as a head coach is top 40 NU. He went 1-1 against those teams, and then 5-5 against a bunch ranked between 40^th and 60^th, too. All signs point to a classic Nebraska v. Fitz game Saturday in East Lansing.

Here are three ways the Huskers make sure they come out on top.

The stakes

Nebraska started as a 5.5-point favorite this week, which dipped briefly to 4.5 right away on Sunday, but the number had been hanging around closer to 5.5 as of Wednesday night. The SP+ ratings projected an NU win by about 10, FPI by 7.5 and FEI—which hasn’t valued the Huskers’ 3-0 start as highly as the others—projects a 3-point win. I’m falling closer to the FEI margin, but let’s get into it…