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The Equation: How low can Aurich and the Blackshirts go?

It's still not about yards, ma'am, it's about points.

Brandon Vogel's avatar
Brandon Vogel
May 28, 2026
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Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

Despite a defensive disaster over the back half of last season that resulted in multiple coaching changes, you can select some stats for the 2025 Blackshirts that make it look like things weren’t so bad. The Huskers ranked 30th in total defense, third in pass defense by yards allowed and 17th by opponent passer rating.

Of course, there are other stats you could choose that better explain the 7-6 record and probably tell us more about what needs to happen in 2026. Nebraska looked OK in some of the yardage stats because Nebraska’s defense faced the sixth-fewest plays of any team playing at least 13 games. The problem was just how much productivity opponents packed into those comparatively few plays. They scored on 37-of-38 red zone trips (135th) against the 2025 Blackshirts. They averaged 4.4 points per trip on drives that crossed the NU 40-yard line (130th).

In short, John Butler’s first and only defense at Nebraska offered a very favorable yards-to-points exchange rate. The Huskers allowed a point for every 13.2 yards gained (103rd), the same average as 2-10 Purdue. From a big-picture perspective, this exchange rate is the thing new defensive coordinator Rob Aurich has to tackle in 2026.

The Equation I’ve created for Nebraska this season sets the target on defense at 20 points per game, an improvement of about a touchdown per game. Simple enough, now how do you get there? That’s the hard part.

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