Some alarms but no surprises in Nebraska's 5-1 start
The Huskers had to get gutsy when it was gusty to land at 5-1 entering the bye week. That might serve them well over the remaining six games.
Nebraska made it to its first bye week at 5-1. Are you surprised?
This isn’t a device, but a real question. Every week of the season is its own narrative unit—a chapter, an episode, an act, whatever you prefer—with its own arc. We’ve consumed six of those here at the first intermission. Are you surprised with where Nebraska football is at?
Nobody had to look very far in the summer to find pundits, bullish on Nebraska, calling for six or even seven wins to start the season. The Huskers did end up favored by at least a touchdown in each of their six games to this point, so it wasn’t just another case of offseason hype. That said, based on those same odds, Nebraska only had about a 40% chance of starting 6-0. In that context, 5-1 feels about right.
When I went through and tried to give each game a gut-reaction win probability at the start of August, I came up with this:
Total those first six games up and it comes out to 4.9. I had Nebraska with a better shot to win against Illinois than Rutgers, which is how it played out with the odds but the opposite of the results on the field. After the disappointing loss to the Illini, this team got back on track by beating Purdue and Rutgers. The Huskers had to fight for both those wins. Saturday’s victory over Rutgers almost had to be gutsy because it was so gusty.
“That was everything it was built up to be, a good old fashioned Big Ten slugfest,” said Rutgers head coach Greg Schiano Saturday. His entire aura, and coaching success, seems like it could’ve been the origin of the word “slugfest,” so I appreciated the confirmation of what I thought I saw.
It’s good Nebraska had to fight to get to 5-1, even if that’s about where the reliable offseason projections would’ve had them all along. The struggles exposed some weaknesses, which will dominate the discussion during bye week. I’ll do my own deep dive into the midseason numbers for Thursday’s newsletter, and that’ll be for paid subscribers so get in now if that’s your sort of thing.
But as I start this first bye week, I’m left wondering what matters more over the last half of the season: That Nebraska has had to battle to get to where it “should” be at this point or that the run game doesn’t scare anyone and special teams have often looked like a catastrophe (among other concerns)?
I don’t know, but I lean slightly to the battle side because most of the time in the fall in the Big Ten—real fall, not the convection oven stuff we got in Lincoln Saturday—finding a way tends to win out.
By getting to the first bye at 5-1, Nebraska earned the right for its season to remain almost limitless. That’s a big deal.
That said, things are going to get harder. Returning to those initial, off-the-cuff win probabilities I only had the Huskers’ total at 2.9 over the final six games. I’d shift the number I had for Indiana down from 60% to 40% win probability based on what I’ve seen so far but bump that same number up closer to 80% against UCLA and maybe 50% at Iowa.1 Those changes cancel each other out, so I’m left back where I started in August.
I still think Nebraska is 8-4 good, warts and all, 5-1 and all. But Huskers earned themselves increased upside by winning what was effectively a coin-flip game over Rutgers.
Everyone, if they could’ve locked it in August 1 when there were no emotions and nothing to go on, would’ve taken 8-4, right? It would mean going .500 over the remaining six games, which won’t feel great because you want Nebraska to win every time out. But it would be a good season by almost any objective measure, no matter how that changes when the next narrative units are delivered.
The reason I feel fortunate to write these newsletters each week is because I no longer feel the need to instantly react to everything. Nebraska is 5-1. It should be 5-1. No surprises,2 which is significant given the Huskers’ recent past.
Helmet Stickers
CB Ceyair Wright: Tackles don’t mean everything for a defensive back, but after making one in over the first three games Wright has made 15 over the last three games while relieving the injury-limited Tommi Hill. He also has four pass breakups, a QB hurry and a forced fumble over that stretch.
DL James Williams: His story came preloaded with love given that Williams effectively bet on himself to land a Nebraska offer after a camp. Now you’re getting the results. Williams had two sacks against Purdue and then again against Rutgers. His total of four ranks fourth in the Big Ten, tied with Ty Robinson.
P Brian Buschini: He’s averaging 47.6 yards per punt, second in the Big Ten, which is how we’re supposed to measure Buschini, but he’s also already made three tackles (tied for the most for an NU specialist since 2017) and completed a pass.
B1G Things
I’m not ready to call this a thing yet, but it might be a thing: Big Ten teams traveling at least two time zones to face another Big Ten team are 1-8 so far this season.
This came up last February in an interview Erin Sorensen did with former Nebraska AD Trev Alberts. He said then the Huskers “now find ourselves dead center in the geographic footprint of a national conference. That's more important than people think.”
Was he right? Well, in those nine two-plus-time-zone games so far in the Big Ten, the home team, in addition to going 8-1, has outperformed the spread by 6.4 points on average. Last week Washington won by 10 as a 1.5-point favorite over Michigan, Minnesota won outright as a 9.5-point dog over USC, Oregon beat Michigan State by 21 as a 21.5-point favorite and Penn State only managed an 18-point win as a 29.5-point favorite over UCLA.
Again, not ready to call it a thing yet, but worth watching this week: Washington goes to Iowa, Penn State visits USC, Ohio State travels to Oregon and Minnesota plays at UCLA.
Nebraska doesn’t make its first (and only) two-time-zone jump until playing USC on Nov. 16.
What’s Next?
Whatever you haven’t gotten done over the past six Saturdays. But we’ll have plenty of good stuff here throughout the week for you.
If Nebraska should be 5-3 after its next two games, please remember this.
I remember music videos, though sometimes I get out of my chair grabbing my back like Buschini on Saturday
Outstanding. I still think the Huskers will finish seven and five. And I completely agree with your adjustments to their win probabilities. I am also stunned by the one in eight record of teams traveling multiple time zones. Hopefully this is a way the Ohio State and Oregon games get leveled off over the next half dozen or so years. Unfortunately, the Huskers won't benefit from either. There are so many good potential stories about Huskers players, I look forward to what Erin can do with those. No offense. That really is her wheelhouse. I don't understand why Ceyair doesn't have a black shirt, and I don't envy the coaches in trying to figure out what to do when Hi'll comes back. ☠️🌽🏐🏈