Points are the point

Nebraska's offense *should* be better in 2024, but *how much* better? Here's a number to consider.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

Let’s start with Phil Steele’s computer. What do we know about it? Next to nothing. What do we know about the numbers he feeds the computer to create his nine sets of power rankings? Even less. But we know courtesy of the headline on page 41, “Phil’s Computer Projected Stats for the 2024 Season.”

I know it’s not meant to be read as a sentence, it’s just funnier that way. Page 41 does indeed include, ahem, computer-projected stats. In classic Steele fashion, it’s a full page of them in 8-point type with ¾-inch margins to make them all fit. On the facing page you can learn that Steele projects Nebraska to have the sixth-most-improved offense in points this season. That’d be big.

At this point in the summer, the broad perception of teams is pretty well set. We’ve had all offseason to absorb projections and assumptions. For example, the one-sentence summation of Nebraska entering 2024 probably goes something like this: An experienced defense sets a high floor, but the offense must make gains to raise the ceiling for a program that hasn’t had a winning record since 2016.

If you’ll accept that summation as mostly accurate, being the offense with the sixth-biggest improvement in points sounds pretty good. The Huskers averaged 18 points per game last year (123rd nationally), and I’m of the opinion that it’s improbable that number goes down this season. It’s more likely to go up, but by how much?

Phil’s computer says 26.8 points per game. I find Steele’s preview to be a valuable enough tool to buy it each year, though I find myself eye rolling more often than I used to while reading. But I think this number is pretty good. I’d put my expectation for this offense, using my computer, right about 27.

Here’s why I think the Huskers can get there, what it means if they do and what it means if they don’t.