Old flames, they can't warm you this week
Did Nebraska's catastrophe at Indiana undo everything we thought we knew about the Matt Rhule era? Some things to consider.
Indiana delivered a bunch of hard truths to Nebraska Saturday, but honesty machine Curt Cignetti had a few more after the 56-7 destruction was done.
“Good win against a team that’s got a lot of good history and tradition that a lot of people thought was a good football team,” the first-year Hoosier head coach said in his postgame press conference.
I’ve spent 24 hours trying to determine if I’m misreading things, but the “a lot of people thought…” part remains wedged in my writer/editor brain. Maybe it was nothing. Maybe those were just the words he choose in the moment. But wouldn’t “that was a good football team” work? Saying “a lot of people thought” implies that some people didn’t, and I have an idea of the person most likely to be in that group.
My read: Cignetti knew this would or could happen. Matt Rhule struck a similar tone after Nebraska’s 28-10 win over Colorado, saying directly “we expected this to be like this.”
Humbled and apologetic after the worst loss of his college career, Rhule had a different tone Saturday.
“I’ll be honest with you guys, I did not see this coming,” he said. “I thought we were going to play great.”
Nebraska did not. Simple special teams errors1 cost the Huskers on two of the first three drives. The defense, NU’s best chance to win this game, didn’t come close to matching the Hoosier offense, IU’s best chance to win this game. Couldn’t even really land a punch, actually. That being the case, it mattered little what NU’s offense did unless it was going to score a touchdown on almost every drive, which it never was going to. Nebraska doesn’t have that kind of offense. Indiana does.
The Huskers have scored more than 30 points against a power-conference opponent once in 15 games under this staff. The most the defense has allowed in a win under Rhule, any win, is 14. Basically, if the defense isn’t top-10 good this team as currently constructed hasn’t won. It’s a really difficult standard to hit over nine conference games.
Basically, if the defense isn’t top-10 good this team as currently constructed hasn’t won.
“Our hope today,” Rhule said of the offensive plan, “we wanted to run the ball, we wanted to play-action, we wanted to be violent.”
Makes sense in theory—particularly when you know that the offense still has to serve the defense, even as good as that group has typically been under DC Tony White—I’m just left to wonder why Nebraska thought it could execute that plan. The Hoosiers’ defense entered the day 23rd nationally in rushing success rate allowed. It wasn’t as good in the explosive-rushes allowed department, but the Husker offense was worse, so that was a wash. NU ran for 2.4 yards per carry, worse than every team on IU’s schedule not named Florida International or Western Illinois by at least 1.3 yards.
Didn’t matter what the Huskers wanted to do on that side, once they fell behind three touchdowns in the first half there was no choice but to throw and throw again.
Contrast that with Indiana, which got to do whatever it wanted all game long. The second uncomfortable truth I picked up on from Cignetti was when he was asked about the Hoosiers rushing for 215 yards on 6.5 per carry. He said this with all the casualness, and weariness, of a 30-year gas station attendant in a one-stoplight town asked for directions to the local high school for the 1000th time: “The box count was probably in our favor, which tells me they were probably overplaying the RPOs. Which tells me we were handing the ball off and gaining yards.”
Again, just my read of it, but this wasn’t a surprise to the head coach either.
That was against the good side of Nebraska football, too, but it more made me think of the offense. The Huskers seemingly can’t or don’t execute what is now a founding principle of modern football. Per Jordan Fox’s excellent and extensive charting of Nebraska’s first six games, the Husker offense ran into a heavy box 45.2% of the time this season, which was basically the same (45.5%) as last season when NU had one of the worst pass games in the country.
This year’s pass game is undeniably better, but why isn’t it helping the run game? A game like Saturday dredges up specific questions like that in addition to all the big-picture, existential stuff.
Rhule, not surprisingly, took all of the blame Saturday, so I feel more validated writing this than I normally would: Nebraska got completely outclassed on the sidelines (and in the box) against Indiana. In retrospect, maybe that shouldn’t be a surprise. Cignetti has lost four games in three seasons as an FBS coach and nine in his last six seasons to date. Rhule and staff have lost nine in two seasons at Nebraska.
Put it this way, I don’t think Cignetti was scared going into this game with both teams coming off a bye week, when the chess match is heightened. Like Rhule, I didn’t see that coming while trying to analyze this game.
I believe Rhule is among the best when it comes to motivation and culture-building. Indiana’s rapid rise, and 56-7, make you wonder if Nebraska is already finding the upper limit of what those strengths can offer on their own.
If you write this was the “worst loss” of Rhule’s college career after a game like that nobody questions the assertion, but I like to have a basis for everything. The Huskers’ 49-point loss as a 6-ish-point underdog was Rhule’s worst performance (-43) relative to the spread over 8.5 seasons in FBS football.
The only games that came close? His first Baylor team lost its first game 48-45 to Liberty as a 33-point favorite (-36), but I almost toss that one out as it seems likely nobody knew just how thin that Baylor team was post-Art Briles scandal. The Bears followed that game up with a 7-point loss as a 12-point favorite (-19) to UTSA, but then, out of nowhere2 in the fourth game, played No. 3 Oklahoma to within 8 points as a 28.5-point underdog (+20.5).
A year before that, Temple opened its 2016 season as a 21.5-point favorite against Army and lost 28-13 (-36.5). That team started the year 3-3, but rebounded with seven straight wins, including the AAC title game, to finish 10-4.
That Nebraska’s loss to Indiana was so uncharacteristic for Rhule-coached teams supports both extremes on the reaction scale: Maybe it was a sign of the apocalypse or maybe it was an outlier. There’s no way to know right now.
For what it’s worth, ESPN’s FPI, the most reactive rankings I regularly look at, would make the Hoosiers a 17-point home favorite over Nebraska if they played today. Losing 56-7 would still be shocking as a 17-point underdog.
It’s times like these I find particular value in models that look at everything instead of just the last thing we saw. That’s not to diminish anyone’s reaction to the Bloomington Bludgeoning, just a note that there are other views out there.
Won’t find many of them this week in Nebraska, however, which is how it goes in the reaction cycle when you get hammered by a relative equal with a one-season head start. The magnitude of Nebraska’s loss forced many to ask if everything built over the previous 19 games had been torn down to the foundation.
Fair enough.3
What’s Next?
Well, No. 4 Ohio State on the road. The Buckeyes were on a bye last week and lost to Oregon last time out. Suboptimal in terms of the “Last week on…” matchup. OSU was about a 24-point favorite on Sunday, not far off the 25.5 it was in the summer, which is a whole personal story for me, often referred to as a “numbers guy,” that I’ll have to tell you about another time. How has Rhule fared as a dog of 24-plus points over his career. I can tell you because I put all that stuff in a spreadsheet earlier: He’s 0-5. Did cover the spread four times, though.4
In our game day chat Saturday, I detailed how the kickoff return error decreased the expected value of NU’s first drive 100x, and a 20-yard punt return allowed on the ensuing drive increased IU’s drive value 2x. That’s a paid subscriber perk, so consider joining us. Despite the meltdown on the field, we had good, reasoned conversation throughout the game. It was nice.
This becomes a key phrase when considering the Ohio State game this week.
Musical inspiration this week for the headline.
In better news, 4-star OL Juju Marks committed to Nebraska on Sunday for the 2025 class. He flipped from Kansas (surprisingly 2-5).
I think this game also points out the number of players coming from smaller schools who probably never got rated but this coach knew they were better than what the open portal offered. This coach also knew his team did not have to blow Bear and Robison off the ball. He knew we were not capable of covering his people. Once they started picking us apart the lanes opened up. We have no confidence in ourselves. He liked the matchups. We had no answers. They played offense against nothing all day long. I hope Tony can conjure up something for this sat or it could be as bad or worse. We are really short on people who can play man. Every weekend we are amazed by the ineptitude of special teams. Every weekend they cost us. This was a complete egg. Nobody looked at all good.
Random thoughts that shouldn't be expressed for at least another month. But that won't stop me.
When you're evaluating graphics cards for a computer one of the things you need to do is make sure that the CPU isn't acting as a artificial cap. Otherwise all of the GPUs will look the same.
Maybe that's what's happening with our running backs. The offensive line is acting as an artificial cap. Or maybe Raiola isn't all that and a side of fries as a coach.
Maybe the problem on the perimeter isn't the commitment of the wide receivers to blocking, or their commitment to getting off the line quicker, maybe it's the skill of the wide receivers coach on teaching then how to get off the line or teaching them blocking. Maybe McGuire isn't experienced enough to get more out of his room?
Here is a more immediate concern. Ohio lost their previous game. And had a bye week to let it stew. Day has a history of making statements after losses. Chip Kelly is still friends with Frost. And holds no love for the Huskers. And they are more athletic than Indiana. DOOM MAY BE NEAR.