Line Items: Power ratings put the value on NU at CU
Line Items: Power ratings put the value on NU at CU
Colorado caught everyone's attention last week, but the power ratings still point to Nebraska against the spread.
What value does a line released in May have for a game played in September? The primary utility of those “game of the year” lines is as publicity for the sports books that produce them. Because it’s May, a natural lull in the college football calendar, people (like me) eat those lines up. Here’s real info on how good teams are perceived to be! This is something to talk and think about!
And, every time somebody does a radio segment or writes an article on the lines, the sports book gets mentioned. That’s the play.
Nebraska was a touchdown favorite over Colorado on one of these lines in May, a time when the Buffaloes hadn’t even finished jettisoning their roster much less rebuilding it. But rebuild they did, and after beating TCU it was inevitable that original touchdown line in favor of the Huskers would steaming towards Colorado.
On Thursday, Nebraska was holding as a three-point underdog in Boulder. That’s basically just home-field advantage from a spread perspective, meaning the market is saying this game is close to a coin flip. Since 2003, three-point underdogs on the road have won outright 45.4% and covered the spread 54.2% of the time.
The latter number, plus Matt Rhule’s track record as a road dog, lead me to believe almost all the value is on Nebraska here against the spread. ESPN’s SP+ ratings had Nebraska at No. 55 this week, up four spots despite losing to Minnesota, and Colorado at No. 82, up six spots. The SP+ ratings, inserting a 2.5-point home-field advantage, would have the Huskers favored by almost 8.5. Using the same method with the FPI ratings, Nebraska’s about a three-point favorite. The 40-plus rating systems tallied at The Prediction Tracker had an average line of Huskers -5.
Do with all of that what you will. I’m taking Nebraska and the points, and you can read some of the football reasons why below. After that, on to the rest of the Big Ten lines.
The Conference of Broad Shoulders
Season ATS Record: 6-4 (.600)
If you can hit on over 55% of against-the-spread picks over a length of time you’re doing something right, but this was just 10 games. I’m treating it like landing in the minefield that is picking against the spread, taking one step and living to tell about it. Danger still lurks with every step you take.
Four Big Ten teams, however, are facing very little danger this week against FCS opponents, meaning there was no line for those games as of Thursday. I won’t hit on each of them in depth, but here’s how they’re going to go. Indiana might be more uncomfortable than it should be for a while against Indiana State but will eventually split the Sycamores. The Sagarin Ratings, which rate FBS and FCS teams together, would have the Hoosiers as a 26-point favorite. Michigan State would be a four-touchdown favorite over Richmond by the same system and should be fine. Ohio State and Penn State are just tallying offensive stats this week against Youngstown State and Delaware.
Now for the real stuff…
Illinois at Kansas -3 (Prediction Tracker Average: Illinois -0.5)
The Illini beat a good Toledo team on a field goal as time expired, but really controlled the game minus a second quarter where the Rockets had the ball for nearly 12 of 15 minutes. Kansas cruised, as expected, over Missouri State. The Illinois defense experienced some growing pains, not entirely unexpected, allowing a success rate of 48.7% (104th). The Jayhawks’ offense is better and will probably get the best of an Illini group with a lot of new parts. Pick: KU -3
Purdue at Virginia Tech -3 (PTA: Purdue -2.5)
The good news: Purdue scored 35 points last week. The bad news: With a lot to replace, it gave up 39 to Fresno State on its home field, and that’s head coach Ryan Walters’ area of expertise. Early struggles weren’t out of the question as the Boilermakers had to replace a lot on both sides, but we’ve got one week of evidence that, yeah, this might be a process for Walters in West Lafayette. I’ll go against the power ratings on this one, too, and take the Hokies. (I fully expect to split this pair—Purdue and Illinois—given that three-point road dogs cover 54% of the time.) Pick: VT -3
UNLV at Michigan -37 (PTA: Michigan -36)
Weren’t we just here? A five-touchdown-plus spread for Michigan? The Wolverines are perfectly capable of covering this, but UNLV might be a little bit better than East Carolina and the Pirates covered the 36-point line in a 30-3 loss last week. I’ll take the points again this week, but this will probably come down to the Wolverines incentive late in the game to put more points on the board and random bounces early. Pick: UNLV +37
Iowa -4 at Iowa State (PTA: Iowa -1)
The Hawkeyes and their everyone’s-watching (out of morbid curiosity) offense started strong in the opener, but was outscored 11-7 in the second half for an easy cover by Utah State. Offensive coordinator Brian Ferentz fell one point shy of the 25 he’s contractually obligated to average this season, so Iowa has some ground to make up. I don’t know if the Hawkeyes will get to 25 here, which is fun, but here’s another one where I’ll go against the prevailing wisdom of the power ratings. Pick: Iowa -4
UTEP -1.5 at Northwestern (PTA: Northwestern -4)
Yikes. An underdog at home to UTEP? If not for a game against Howard in a couple of weeks, Northwestern wouldn’t be favored this season unless the Wildcats put together a string of games better than what they showed against Rutgers. That said, there’s not an easy case to be made for Northwestern after rushing for 12 yards last week, part of 189 yards total that resulted in one red zone trip. Power ratings are pretty good these days, but almost all of them are still relying heavily on the model (i.e., often a three- or four-year lookback), which is a strength overall, but it makes things really murky this early in a season. I’ll go against the Prediction Tracker average yet again. If nothing else, we’ll know if I’m the one overreacting to one week of results. Pick: UTEP -1.5
Wisconsin -1.5 at Washington State (PTA: Wisconsin -1.5)
This line surprises me a little bit. Wisconsin was a little sluggish in the first half of its 38-17 win over Buffalo, but the Badgers still rushed for over 300 yards on nearly 8 yards per carry in what became a comfortable win. Washington State trounced Colorado State, 50-24, which will probably happen to the Rams a lot in 2023. The Cougars only averaged 2.4 yards per carry against a defense that gave up 4.2 last season, and that might be the difference here. Maybe the Badgers truly are headed for a Dairy Raid future. They showed they’re still plenty potent on the ground last week, which allows it to control the clock here. Pick: Wisconsin -1.5
Charlotte at Maryland -24.5 (PTA: Maryland -27.5)
Charlotte got what it paid for with a 24-3 win over South Carolina State in Biff Poggi’s coaching debut. The former Michigan program whisperer—technically, he was an analyst—should be pretty familiar with Maryland, which didn’t run through Towson quite the way I expected a week ago. The Terrapins aren’t in much danger of losing here, but give me the 49ers to cover in a game that is (bizarrely) on NBC in primetime. Pick: Charlotte +24.5
Eastern Michigan at Minnesota -20.5 (PTA: Minnesota -20.5)
Minnesota is gritty and tough, a reputation that was only bolstered with how it pulled a victory out against Nebraska. Eastern Michigan is so gritty and tough, it plays on a cinder-block gray field. But, really, EMU is one of the hardest jobs in college football and head coach Chris Creighton has given the Eagles something of an identity. I’m playing a lot of underdogs this week, but this is just a numbers play. The total on this game is 48, meaning the projected score pencils out to something close to 35-13, Gophers. Given how the two teams play, I’d prefer a game expected to have more points before I’m taking Minnesota by three touchdowns. Pick: EMU +20.5
Temple at Rutgers -9 (PTA: Rutgers -10.5)
The Scarlet Knights’ 24-7 win over Northwestern wasn’t as pretty as the score made it seem. Rutgers averaged just 3.9 yards per play and quarterback Gavin Wimsatt was a pedestrian 17-for-29 passing for 163 yards. However, Temple was outgained on a per-play basis by a bad Akron team and had to rally from 14 down at halftime. Pick: Rutgers -9