Very interesting data. I’m surprised Indiana was not one of the top teams to exceed win expectations. I would have thought their 2024 season would exceeded expectations by 6 or 7.
Indiana's 2024 season was +5.5 and it followed it up with +3.5 in 2025. A 5-year loopback, however, includes Indiana being -5.5 in 2021 and -0.5 in '22 and '23. Limit it to 3 years, and IU is the second-biggest overachiever of that span, trailing only...drumroll...BYU. The Cougars (23-25) were -0.5, +5.5 and +4.5. In terms of measuring regular season success against preseason expectation, BYU is the champion of the past 5 years at +11 wins.
Also of note, there are only three instances of a team being +3.5 or better in back-to-back seasons and all three were from 2024/25: Indiana, BYU, Vanderbilt.
Very interesting data. I’m surprised Indiana was not one of the top teams to exceed win expectations. I would have thought their 2024 season would exceeded expectations by 6 or 7.
Indiana's 2024 season was +5.5 and it followed it up with +3.5 in 2025. A 5-year loopback, however, includes Indiana being -5.5 in 2021 and -0.5 in '22 and '23. Limit it to 3 years, and IU is the second-biggest overachiever of that span, trailing only...drumroll...BYU. The Cougars (23-25) were -0.5, +5.5 and +4.5. In terms of measuring regular season success against preseason expectation, BYU is the champion of the past 5 years at +11 wins.
Also of note, there are only three instances of a team being +3.5 or better in back-to-back seasons and all three were from 2024/25: Indiana, BYU, Vanderbilt.
Regression to mean > Playing on tilt
🖐🏻✌🏻
Optimism > Being right