Hype avoided, offseason over, maybe now a little Husker hope?

Nebraska football opens camp this week after an oh so quiet offseason. Here's one view that might let you turn up the volume at least a little.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

Nebraska football opens fall camp this week after its appearance at Big Ten Media Days was as quiet as expected. As quiet as the offseason—which was as strange as I can remember because of the relative silence—but that’s over now.

So, who’s ready for some hype?

No? Good. Hype isn’t really our trade here, nor is it in the McIllece Sports Football Atlas. The new version just released over the weekend, and all of the preview data is based on McIllece’s prediction model.

This is why it’s become my favorite preview. There are a lot of strong models out there, but in my view McIllece has been the most aggressive and innovative on two fronts: 1) trying to account for the upheaval the transfer era has caused, and 2) trying to account for coaching. After spending early summer reading Athlon and Phil Steele each year, McIllece is always good for a few curveballs.

Case in point, it’s slightly higher on the Huskers than I expected and certainly higher than the general opinion of NU through this sloggy offseason. Slightly first, then certainly. Remember, this isn’t hype.

I’m not going to give away the entire Nebraska section of the magazine. If you like data, charts and an outside-the-box approach, you can preview the preview and consider getting your own copy here.¹ But I will highlight a few things that made me stop and think.

Nebraska is 32^nd in the McIllece power ratings, which is in range with ESPN’s FPI (30^th) and SP+ (37^th). What’s different is where this puts NU in relation to other teams. At 32^nd, the Huskers rank one spot ahead of Clemson, two spots ahead of trendy² Houston and three spots ahead of Matt Campbell-led Penn State, the last of which is 17^th in FPI and SP+.

The Nittany Lions aren’t on Nebraska’s schedule, but there’s more relevant Big Ten shuffling. SP+ and FPI’s power rankings, with a 2.5-point home field advantage figured in, both make the Nebraska-Washington game on Oct. 31 a relative tossup between UW -3 to +1.5. McIllece has the Huskies rated 13^th with a projected line of -7.5. If that proves out it would change the outlook for NU’s October when it already has to face Indiana and Oregon, both top five teams by this model.³ If the Washington game isn’t closer to a tossup, as other models forecast, think about what the start of November might feel like with the Huskers coming off a 1-3 month. At best, they’d be 5-3—not dead yet, but no momentum entering what has been Matt Rhule’s month of horrors.

This also isn’t anti-hype, so the other McIllece mix up of the Big Ten consensus involves the next opponent on the schedule. The ESPN power ratings have Nebraska at Illinois on Nov. 6 in similar tossup territory. McIllece projects NU -7 because it has the Illini at 63^rd. While Bret Bielema is no stranger to defying odds, Illinois has a lot of turnover this season, on the sidelines and between the lines.

Big picture, the de facto preseason media polls had NU 11^th in the Big Ten. The McIllece model put Nebraska eighth, which is the highest I’ve seen this offseason.

We are talking about small differences here. The record projection for the Huskers in the Atlas shows 6-6 and 7-5 as equally likely at 17% with 5-7 and 8-4 both at 14%. I’m guessing that 90% of the record predictions you’ll absorb this month will fall within that range.

But we are in the era of college football volatility. The McIllece model also gives Nebraska a 10% chance to get to 9-3 and, if it does, a 98% chance to be a realistic playoff contender with that record.

I can’t put it more succinctly than the preview itself does: “While the record obscures it, HC Matt Rhule has quietly improved Nebraska’s power over the past three years.”

Quiet. Just like the offseason.

While the games are still a month away, the season’s here now. Maybe it’s time to let just a little hype hope in?⁴

1. It’s nearly 600 pages, which should give you a good idea if it’s for you or isn’t.

2. The Cougars being viewed as ascendent is merited in my mind because Willie Fritz is pretty good at what he does. “Trendy” can have a negative connotation, but here I believe it is earned.

3. And most others.

4. If you’d prefer to just be in ecstatic disbelief if something like 9-3 happened, the model also puts a 4-8 record at 10%.