Huskers threw a party and it was good
Yes, it matters, even against an opponent that comes with caveats. Plus, some early thoughts on the Big Ten.
Nebraska’s Saturday night demolition of Akron represents just 3.7% of the 27-game Matt Rhule era, but it resulted in 11.5% of the total points the Huskers have scored since 2023. That’s a pretty good ROI, as well as my game recap, and it was hard to see coming.
On the Average Joe Sports Show in the hours before kickoff Saturday, I was asked what I thought of someone’s 60-3 prediction. I asked if NU was going to be playing eight quarters. The Huskers hadn’t scored like that under this staff, and I couldn’t be sure they even wanted to. I predicted 35-6.
Nebraska did score like that and looked like it wanted to in the 68-01 win over the Zips, a team so familiar with getting big sacks of cash in exchange for getting pummeled—it has now lost seven of their last 11 against a power-conference team by six touchdowns or more—that its name might as well be (Yeah, But It’s) Akron. At least if you’re a fan of one of the power schools paying for this experience. The disclaimer is baked in.
But if one of the main takeaways from the Huskers’ nervy 20-17 win over Cincinnati a week ago was that the program needed a win like that, I’m ready to contend that Nebraska may have needed a win like it had Saturday night just as much. The former symbolizes that not every one-score game has to have Nebraska in the loser’s column, that the Huskers can slay the almost-let-it-slip-away dragon.
The latter was more “look how far2 you can go” than “look how far you’ve come,” and that’s an important distinction. Saturday was a party with a particularly good DJ. Virtually everything the Huskers tried to do worked and a sellout crowd got to celebrate every success under the lights like it was the song they wanted to hear at that very moment even though they thought the song 3 minutes ago couldn’t be topped.
It was that kind of night, and, yes, that still matters even against (Yeah, But It’s) Akron. The Huskers haven’t had many of those expected results very often of late. Last year, Nebraska was tied 7-7 with UTEP after a quarter. In 2023, Nebraska was up 7-3 against Northern Iowa but losing time of possession after 15 minutes. In 2022, it was 7-7 with North Dakota at the half. In 2021, NU was tied with Fordham in the second quarter. Those were all supposed to be parties, and eventually became something resembling one, but they all felt a little lame early on.
Even with the Huskers only up 9-0 after the first quarter thanks to failing to cash in twice inside the 10, the (Yeah But It’s) Akron win never felt like those and I think that’s something you can take away from a game like this.
It’s somewhat silly to guess at a team’s mentality based on what we hear and see on the field, but I’m ok with theorizing. In theory, a team starting 2-0 with a win in the kind of the game that reminded many of past disappointments and a blowout that reminded many of the even more distant, more pleasant past.
If you could develop the feedback from two games in a lab, that’s not a bad combo.
Schedule Watchin’
Two games isn’t a lot of data to go on, but it does represent nearly 17% of the regular-season schedule, so I thought I’d offer a few quick thoughts on what we’ve seen from the Big Ten teams on Nebraska’s schedule.
Michigan: Lost 24-13 at Oklahoma on Saturday and that loss was pretty true with collegefootballdata.com giving the Sooners’ a 90% postgame win probability. True freshman QB Bryce Underwood struggled against a chess master defensive coach in Brent Venables, which isn’t all that shocking. The Wolverines will be without head coach Sherrone Moore this week against Central Michigan and the following week when they visit Lincoln. I don’t think the loss to OU made things any easier for NU in two weeks, but it did have me downgrading Michigan a bit from the preseason.
Michigan State: Beat Boston College 42-40 in multiple overtimes despite the Eagles having a 94% postgame win probability. In short, the Spartans stole one, but those count all the same. Be wary of this MSU receiver corps. Omari Kelly and Chrishon McCrary were key parts of this win and they’re the second and third options behind Nick Marsh, who already has three touchdown catches.
Maryland: Beat Northern Illinois 20-9 this week, but it might have been misdemeanor theft with collegefootballdata.com giving NIU a 72% postgame win probability. The Terps are 2-0 and will be 3-0 after facing Towson this week. Might not find out anything real about Maryland until the play Wisconsin and Washington back-to-back to open Big Ten play.
Minnesota: Detonated Northwestern State 66-0 after a grinding 23-10 win over Buffalo to open the season. Sound familiar? I’ve seen nothing from the Gophers so far to move me off my preseason feeling—they’ve got a chance to be pretty good. A rebuilt defense is allowing fewer than 2 yards per carry so far, thanks in part to 13 TFLs through two games.
Northwestern: Looked pretty rough in a 23-3 loss at Tulane to kick off the year but handled Western Illinois in a 42-7 win last week. High-profile transfer QB Preston Stone (SMU) has already thrown four interceptions. The Wildcats get Oregon this week.
USC: Looking pretty Lincoln Riley-y (in a good way) while averaging 66 points per game after wins over Missouri State and Georgia Southern. I’d expect the Trojans to continue to look good this week against Purdue, and probably do the same against Michigan State. Then USC has to go to Illinois for its biggest test of September. I liked the Trojans in the offseason, but I’ve upgraded them slightly. Scoring 60-plus points in consecutive weeks requires extreme precision against any opponent.3
UCLA: Not great, Bob. The 43-10 loss to Utah in the opener was surprising in how complete it was, and this week’s 30-23 loss to UNLV required a rally to even get it that close. (The Rebels nearly lost to Idaho State to start the season.) Through two games, QB Nico Iamaleava has thrown as many interceptions (2) as touchdowns. He only had five picks in 13 games as Tennessee’s starter in 2024.
Penn State: Doing what it should be doing with wins over Nevada (46-11) and FIU (34-0) with Villanova up next. That slate might provide some whiplash when Oregon travels to State College on Sept. 27. Won’t know much about the Nittany Lions until then.
Iowa: Still Iowaing. Transfer QB Mark Gronowski, a two-time FCS national champion at South Dakota State viewed as the accelerant for legitimate gains the Hawkeye offense made a year ago, threw for 44 yards in his Iowa debut and followed it up with 83 yards last week. At 127 yards, that puts him 1 yard behind Nebraska’s true freshman backup QB TJ Lateef in total passing yards. Despite all that, Iowa only lost by 3 on the road at Iowa State, which looks like a deserving Big 12 favorite at 3-0. Like I said, still Iowaing. The Hawkeyes still can be, and might be, quite good, but the QB struggling is an early unpleasant surprise.
Nebraska’s first shutout since the 2009 Holiday Bowl.
728 yards, or nearly a half mile, if you want to put a number on it.
I suspect Nebraska will learn this against Houston Christian, which would almost certainly be an underdog to Akron.
I'm less concerned about how many points the offense scores against HC than I am about how many points the defense gives up to HC. I'd really like back to back shutouts at home.☠️☠️☠️☠️
Defend the home turf before Michigan comes in. My goal for the Michigan game is holding them to half the passing yards that they've been averaging until that point. I want to hear them sing the blues.