Nebraska earned its spot in this game. That will be important to remember no matter how Saturday’s visit from No. 7 Indiana goes because games get wonky in all kinds of ways.
In 2024, Nebraska went to Bloomington at 5-1 and as a 6.5-point underdog. Undefeated Indiana, then just a toddler under Curt Cignetti with a particular aptitude for executing a plan, won 56-7. The powers(rankings) that be would’ve made NU about a 17-point underdog if the two teams played a week later. The 49-point loss resulted in 10 points of change in the predicted strength of the teams. In that sphere, 10 points is a lot, but it ain’t 49.
Full-grown, graduated-from-Harvard, industry-leader-at-25 Indiana arrives this week. The Huskers are again about a touchdown underdog, this time at home. This is great news.
Using preseason SP+ ratings to project point spreads and Team Rankings’ historical results relative to spreads to infer win probabilities, Nebraska had about a 15% chance to beat the Hoosiers and about a 5% chance next week against Oregon. Using this week’s SP+ ratings, and the same historical results, Nebraska would have a 29% chance of beating Indiana and a 37% chance against the Ducks.
That’s something. All offseason Indiana, Oregon and Ohio State were the three losses you just automatically assigned for Nebraska. The Huskers’ probability to win at least one game from the Indiana-Oregon swing was about 19%. Right now, it’s about 55%.
That’s something. Something that won’t matter at all come kickoff on Saturday and will change by Sunday. But right now, this is the best any Matt Rhule team at Nebraska has looked at any point.
If you don’t want to buy it, I get it. Don’t buy it. If you want to believe, there’s supporting evidence for that, too. As you’ll see as we get into the numbers below, 2026 Indiana and Nebraska1 are almost strikingly similar.
