Game Day Guide: Nebraska vs. Michigan State

Nebraska closes out its four-game homestand with a homecoming matchup against Michigan State.

Photo courtesy Nebraska Athletics

Nebraska closes out its four-game homestand with a homecoming matchup against Michigan State. It’s a game that carries a good amount of weight for the Huskers.

Nebraska, after all, was a handful of plays away from beating a ranked Michigan team two weeks ago. The Huskers now face a Michigan State squad positioned somewhere in the Big Ten’s middle tier.

The stakes are simple: win.

Nebraska vs. Michigan State

When: Saturday, Oct. 4 | 3 p.m. CT
Where: Memorial Stadium, Lincoln
TV: FS1 (Tim Brando, Devin Gardner, Josh Sims)
Radio: Huskers Radio Network (Kyle Crooks, Damon Benning, Jessica Coody)
Streaming audio: Huskers.com / Official Huskers App

Records: Nebraska 3–1 (0–1 B1G); Michigan State 3–1 (0–1 B1G)
Rankings: Nebraska RV; Michigan State NR
Series: Nebraska leads 9-4 (6-1 in Lincoln). Last meeting: Michigan State 20–17 (2023).

Scene setter

Nebraska has spent two weeks sitting with a 30-27 loss to Michigan. Now the Huskers return to Memorial Stadium for the 114th homecoming game in program history, chasing a win over a Michigan State team that has made a habit of making things difficult. The last five matchups have been decided by a combined 15 points, and the Spartans have won the last two (each by a field goal).

This one, like most Nebraska–Michigan State games, figures to be decided in the trenches and in the margins. And after the way the Wolverines controlled both, Nebraska has spent its bye week focused on flipping that script.

Rhule on the moment

Wind. Tackling. Urgency. All three were themes as Matt Rhule met with the media this week.

With winds forecasted in the 20–30 mph range, Nebraska has been preparing for the elements.

“It’ll be a factor,” Rhule said. “It might make me make some different decisions than normally you would. But the good news is both teams have to play with it.”

That could mean more emphasis on the ground game and short passing. It will certainly mean more weight on special teams, where field position and ball control can tilt the game.

On the other side of the ball, Rhule emphasized how important tackling will be against Michigan State’s physical playmakers. The Spartans’ top back, Mekhi Frazier, and lead receiver, Nick Marsh, both have a knack for shedding first contact.

“We have to get them down,” Rhule said. “If the first guy doesn’t, the next guy better be there.”

Rhule also isn’t hiding the program’s desire to snap a frustrating streak against the Spartans. Nebraska hasn’t beaten Michigan State since 2018.

“Not in this decade,” he said. “Fair enough? We look at that as an unbelievable opportunity.”

Storylines to remember

The stakes feel bigger than the spread
No, this isn’t a must-win game on paper but it’s close. Losing to Michigan wasn’t season-ending. If anything, it proved Nebraska can trade blows with a ranked Big Ten opponent. Losing to Michigan State, though, would raise real questions.

The Huskers are favorites for a reason and they have to prove it in games like this.

The wind could change everything
We talk about weather a lot in the Midwest, but there is a legitimate reason to on Saturday. Sustained winds above 20 mph change the way you call a game and Nebraska knows it. Rhule pointed to past windy games against Maryland and Rutgers that turned into low-scoring, grind-it-out affairs. Big-handed quarterbacks who can cut through the gusts are crucial. Kicking and punting become adventures. And chunk plays, especially downfield, get harder to come by.

A big opportunity for Raiola
Michigan State’s defense is vulnerable, particularly through the air. The Spartans have allowed seven passing touchdowns without an interception against Power Five competition and have yet to record a sack in those games. That sets up well for Dylan Raiola, who’s been one of the nation’s most accurate passers (75.6%) and already has four 300-yard performances in 17 career starts.

If Nebraska’s offensive line gives him a clean pocket — something that didn’t happen often against Michigan — Raiola has a chance to pick apart the Spartans’ secondary.

The run fits must be better
Michigan’s three explosive touchdown runs two weeks ago weren’t just bad luck. Instead, they were breakdowns in alignment, gap integrity and tackling. Michigan State’s offense isn’t as dynamic on the ground but quarterback Aidan Chiles is dangerous when plays break down. He’s thrown for 858 yards and nine touchdowns with just one interception this season and added 154 yards and two scores as a runner. If Nebraska isn’t more disciplined up front, Chiles can turn five-yard scrambles into drive-sustaining conversions.

Blackshirts’ no-fly zone vs. their toughest test yet
Nebraska’s pass defense remains the most dominant unit in college football. Opponents are averaging just 75.8 yards per game through the air, completing just 50.6% of passes. The Huskers haven’t allowed a 20-yard completion all season, making them the only team in the FBS that can say that. They also haven’t allowed a passing touchdown.

That streak will be tested by Chiles’ efficiency and Michigan State’s physical receiving corps, but it’s also Nebraska’s biggest advantage entering Saturday.

A recruiting spotlight
Homecoming always draws big visits and this one is no different. Rhule said Nebraska is “making noise” with key prospects and expects a strong group of visitors. That means what happens on the field Saturday could resonate beyond the final score.

What the numbers say

Close calls: The last five meetings between Nebraska and Michigan State have been decided by five points or fewer.

Homecoming history: Nebraska is 86-23-4 all-time on homecoming and has won 13 of its last 15. The Huskers are 10-2 against Big Ten opponents in homecoming games.

Offensive efficiency: Nebraska ranks No. 2 nationally in passing offense (351.8 ypg) and completion percentage (77.6%). The Huskers are also No. 12 in scoring (43.5 ppg) and No. 13 in total offense (496.5 ypg).

Air-tight defense: Nebraska leads the nation in pass defense (75.8 ypg) and is the only FBS team yet to allow a 20-yard pass.

Ball distribution: Eighteen different Huskers have caught a pass this season. Five have at least 13 receptions.

Health, availability, odds and ends

• Senior nickelback Malcolm Hartzog will be a game-time decision after missing the past two games.

• Receiver Demitrius Bell, recovering from a serious knee injury, suffered a hamstring setback and will miss more time.

• Michigan State will be without starting left tackle Stanton Ramil and could be missing second-leading tackler Wayne Matthews III.

• Nebraska is an 11.5-point favorite entering Saturday’s matchup.

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Two weeks is a long time to sit with a loss, especially one Nebraska believes it should have won. But the wait is over, and now the Huskers get a chance to show whether the lessons from Michigan have truly stuck.

If those boxes get checked, Nebraska should end its losing streak against Michigan State and pick up its first conference win of 2025. If not? Another tight, frustrating game could be waiting in the fourth quarter.

Either way, this one will say a lot about how far Nebraska has come (or how far it still has to go).