Good job, Dwayne McDougle. The San Diego State transfer safety made the biggest play of Nebraska’s 48-23 win over Maryland Saturday, which was so obvious maybe it doesn’t need mentioned. What does need mentioned is that NU was flirting with disaster before he made it.
Already down 23-14 midway through the second quarter, the Huskers punted to Maryland and the Terps promptly moved the ball to NU’s 25. A touchdown here might’ve been lethal. A field goal would’ve tilted the odds in Maryland’s favor for the first time.
Instead, McDougle stepped in front of a slant and took it 81 yards the other way to make it 23-21 after an extra point. Prior to his interception, Nebraska’s win probability, about 87% to start the game as a 14.5-point favorite, had dropped to 52%. After McDougle’s pick it was back up to 74%, and it wouldn’t go down from there.
Perhaps the best news for Nebraska—this wasn’t random. It happened through preparation.
Based on Maryland’s alignment, McDougle knew the Terps had a tendency to go to the slant.
“So, I was playing off the quarterback,” McDougle said, “and as soon as he pulled the trigger, I knew I was taking it the other way.”
And so he did. For the second week to start Big Ten play, Nebraska overcame an uneven start to make a game look like it should…or maybe even better. I think that says something about the Huskers’ overall quality. Things might actually be different this time, but a team has to prove that every week until we’re out of weeks.
This week presents a new challenge for 2026 with the arrival of Indiana—a game Nebraska isn’t expected to win. The Huskers have been better than expected each step of the way so far. But this game, against this opponent, comes with a lot of baggage. That baggage—Matt Rhule’s, and NU’s, record against ranked teams; Indiana’s 21-game winning streak; the score the last time the two played—will dominate the discussion around Nebraska this week. Should it?
I’m going to present you two blind statistical summaries. We’re just using Expected Points Added (EPA) per play here, probably football’s best catch-all statistic, to keep things high level and succinct. It measures how much scoring value a team produces or limits on each play. One of the following teams is 2026 Nebraska:
Team A: 0.375 EPA per offensive play (6th nationally, 96th percentile), -0.103 per defensive play (9th, 93rd)
Team B: 0.437 per offensive play (7th, 95th), -0.034 per defensive play ( 27th, 80th)
Outside of pride it doesn’t matter if you correctly identified Nebraska, the numbers are close enough to make any difference slight. But Team A is Nebraska and Team B is where Indiana was after five games in 2024. Those Hoosiers would get to 6-0 before humiliating a 5-1 Nebraska team, 56-7, as a 6.5-point favorite and going on to an 11-1 regular season and a spot in the Playoff.
For comparison’s sake, the 2026 Hoosiers are in the 99th percentile in EPA on offense, the 83rd percentile on defense. The 2024 Huskers weren’t bad at 5-1, the 81st percentile on offense and the 63rd percentile on defense.
Indiana made those numbers look fake two years ago. Nebraska’s numbers are better now, but the fear that this is all a mirage, as it has been in recent seasons, hasn’t declined proportionally.
That’s fine. Maybe even wise. The old scars still itch sometimes.
But the key to surviving the buildup to Hoosiers-Huskers this week might be recognizing that, objectively, Nebraska’s in a different place than it was two years ago. Indiana might not be, but it does have to play in Lincoln this time.
That’s about as good a spot as anyone could hope for after five games for the Huskers to go out there and change the narrative dramatically.
Now they just need to do it, which is the ultimate compliment to Indiana and the bottom line for making it through the week as a Husker fan—Nebraska needs to do it.
Poll Position
There are two 5-0 power conference teams that were unranked in the latest AP poll—Duke and Nebraska. Neither was ranked in the preseason and neither has an impossible to ignore win to this point. Easy enough to understand, but I’m still annoyed.
I’ve never been an AP poll voter, but what do you think the marching orders should be if you are? I think it’s pretty simple: Rank the 25 best teams in your mind. It’s an opinion poll, and we want your opinion.
The poll rarely works this way. Blame the “games have to matter” absolutists. They’re taking a stance against an injustice mostly imagined, trying to solve a problem of their own invention. The games do matter and everyone who goes to a game or watches on TV knows this. That’s why they’re watching and a game’s only purpose if you really want to strip it down to the studs—to provide something people want.
Our best example of this so far might be Texas’s 24-23 win over Ohio State in Week 2. The Buckeyes were No. 1 entering the game, the Longhorns No. 4. It’s almost irrefutable to move Texas up after it wins that game, but that’s the problem. What if you’re an AP voter who still thinks Ohio State is better after that game?
There’s no place for that person and even fewer willing to take that stance, which doesn’t seem like the best role an opinion poll can fulfill. If you’re ranking with a “games have to matter’ mindset, nobody needs you. We’ll just watch the games and know that whatever noisy result was reached after 60 minutes was the truth.
Anyway, I was surprised Nebraska didn’t claw its way into the poll at 24th or 25th this week, though it doesn’t really matter. The new SP+ ratings have the Huskers 12th and FPI has them 13th. Both sets of power ratings would make NU about a 7- to 10-point underdog at home against Indiana this week.
The Huskers were +7 late Sunday night, down from +9.5.