Act II: Hoosiers and Ducks and Huskies, oh my!
October looks rougher for Nebraska than it did a year ago, but if this program is ever going to make progress it needs to spring a few surprises.
Nebraska was in a good spot entering October 2025. It had just lost a frustrating-but-not-disastrous game to Michigan and there was mostly open road ahead: Michigan State in Lincoln, Maryland and Minnesota on the road, Northwestern back at home.
The Huskers were favored by at least 6.5 points in each of those games. Their chances of going 4-0 over last year’s Act II were only about 24%, but their expected win total from those games rounded up easily to three. Nebraska would go 3-1 over these four games.
In Act II this season, Nebraska’s projected chances of going 4-0 are less than 1%, which goes a long way to explaining why so much of this offseason has been spent on concern over the schedule. It’s hard. Considerably harder than last year’s, and it’s harder more quickly.
But all of those percentages above also illustrate a key point. The problem with Nebraska’s 2025 season was that it played out almost exactly to form. The Huskers went 3-1 in Act I, as the numbers suggested was the most probable outcome, and did it again in Act II. Act III, based on the actual lines from the games, projected 1.5 wins. NU won one instead, a disappointment but perhaps not as big a disappointment as it felt while living it week to week based on the most probable outcome.1
Eventually, if Nebraska football is to make an upward move that gets people excited, it’s going to have to do something that’s unreasonable to expect. Act II in 2026 represents a decent opportunity.
