21 & Over

New offense, second-year QB, same strange cap on the Nebraska offense to start 2025.

Courtesy Nebraska Athletics

It was the best of times, Nebraska’s season-opening 20-17 win over Cincinnati. Running back Emmett Johnson ran like a guy anyone would like to have, quarterback Dylan Raiola completed nearly 80% of his passes, a few defenders made timely plays, special teams was fun and the Huskers nearly won time of possession 2-to-1.

It was the worst of times because despite all that NU only won by three. The rush defense got gashed for 6.7 yards per carry as Bearcat quarterback Brendan Sorsby averaged 7.4 on 13 carries. Raiola completed a bunch of throws, but they only went for 5.8 yards per attempt, lower than Raiola’s 6.9 from last year, which ranked 89th nationally. The Husker offensive line struggled at times with Cincinnati’s experienced, athletic defensive front.

Season-openers are almost destined to be enigmatic. They’re real, much-awaited data, but they can’t, or at least shouldn’t, replace an entire offseason of information gathering and best-guessing. That often gets lost when the media landscape incentivizes everyone to go live 20 minutes after the game on YouTube or wherever you get your podcasts. No shade—I’ve done those, too—it’s just an environment that requires quick reaction times and, given the volume in Nebraska, accelerates the formation of a common narrative.

Plenty of teams that went on to be good looked mediocre the first time out. Plenty of mediocre teams were mediocre from start to finish, too. Overall, I thought the Huskers’ season-opening win was mostly good. There were a few surprises and key contributions from guys NU needs to be good in 2025. Most of the concerns were of the “known issue” variety, or at least were things everyone worried about through the offseason.

But there was one long-term Nebraska concern that increased at least slightly following the win over Cincinnati. The Huskers have to figure out a way to score more points. If they don’t, there’s a pretty hard ceiling for where this program can go in its current iteration.

Since the start of the 2023 season, Nebraska has scored 21-plus against a fellow power-conference opponent five times, resulting in four wins and last year’s overtime loss to Illinois. Two of the wins came against Purdue, and two included a defensive touchdown (2024 Colorado, 2023 Purdue). Tough to even give the offense full credit for those.

You know where five games with 21-plus scored against power-conference opponents ranks among all power-conference teams? Last.

Well, tied with Michigan State. Purdue sits at six. UCLA, Mississippi State, Kentucky, Iowa and Houston have crossed 20 points seven times and Stanford’s at eight to round out the bottom 10. Iowa—the team with the “they can’t keep getting away this” sentiment as an identity—is the only team in that group with a winning record since 2023 (18-9). The other eight, minus Nebraska, are a combined 63-112.

The top 10 power conference teams by this same criterion are Oregon (21 games at or over 21 points), Notre Dame (20), Georgia (19), Louisville and Penn State (18), Alabama, Georgia Tech, Kansas State and Texas (17) and Missouri (16). Combined records with that group since 2023: 220-65.

Given those counts, you could argue Nebraska is already maximizing what it can do if it so rarely tops 21 points against an equal opponent by being 13-13. Iowa’s the only team in this current cohort that’s been better, and good luck doing it how the Hawkeyes do it. Plenty have tried and most found out it’s just too thin a line to walk. You have to put up points to offer some margin for error.

Nebraska hasn’t often enough in the games that matter most. How does it change?

More explosive plays would be the quickest way. The Huskers’ 13.5% explosive-play rate since 2023 ranks 103rd nationally, and they had eight on 78 plays (10.3%) against Cincinnati. Raiola played short-toss most of the night, and that was fine. It allowed NU to move the ball, but if Nebraska stays where it’s been the past two seasons in this department, a big leap forward in 2025 is more difficult.

If a team can’t occasionally score from deep—or at least reach the red zone that way, which is usually good for momentum—it’s asking a lot of the offense to consistently execute. That’s not the sharpest bet at the college level. Unfortunately, generating more explosives isn’t as simple as pushing the big-play button.

Excellent red-zone execution could make up for a lack of explosive plays, but things can get pretty random inside the 20. Nebraska was 3-for-3 there against the Bearcats, including two touchdowns. Can’t be better than that, but it felt hard-earned with NU turning to fades twice (one worked) and running someone other than the running back or quarterback twice. Credit Nebraska for getting points all three trips, but how they got them didn’t really inspire confidence that this is a strength in the making.

It's too early to diminish the promise of a Dana Holgorsen offense based on one game against a defense that might end up being pretty good on a national scale. The offense wasn’t bad, it was just…the same, in a big picture sense, as what we’ve seen for the past two seasons.

And, as we’ve seen over the past two seasons in Lincoln and most other places outside Iowa City, winning consistently while scoring 20 or fewer points is a hard way to get ahead.