The NFL Draft unfolded in the typical way for Nebraska. At least of late.

Running back Emmett Johnson was the only Husker selected,1 going in the fifth round (161^st overall) to the Kansas City Chiefs. That was half the number of native Nebraskans selected. Former Nebraska walk-on tight end Nate Boerkircher-turned-Texas A&M Aggie was picked in the second round (56^th) by Jacksonville. Not bad for kid who was lightly recruited out of Aurora High School. The Eagles selected North Dakota State quarterback Cole Payton in the fifth round (178^th), ahead of such FBS producers as Diego Pavia, Jalon Daniels and Haynes King. Payton was the Nebraska Gatorade Player of the Year as a senior at Omaha Westside in 2020, choosing the Bison over a walk-on over from Nebraska.

I wrote in a newsletter last week that talent and wins aren’t always connected by a straight line, and adding the third dot of NFL draftability doesn’t simplify the picture. But it would be silly to argue the dots aren’t connected in some way. Better players, better chance to win. There will always be exceptions, but it doesn’t have to be more complicated than that.

This year’s draft was the ninth in the last 10 in which two or fewer Huskers were selected. Rather than try to overexplain “what this means,” as that seems fairly obvious, it prompted a different set of questions for me. What did it actually look like in the past? What is realistic to expect from today’s Nebraska in the draft? What should it look like in the future if the Huskers get to where they’re trying to go?

To try to address the problem of varying draft lengths, formats, etc., I decided to assign “Draft Points” for Huskers selected over the years. It’s super simple and absolutely imperfect, better for looking at a lot of years than for understanding the nuance of a few. I used the modern, three-day draft as rough cutoff points, so a player selected in the top 30 earned 3 points, a player picked 31-100 got 2 and anything after that received 1 point.2

Do that for every draft since the first one, 1936, and Nebraska’s history looks like this:

Look about like the Nebraska football you’ve consumed, however long that’s been? I included a line for the 10-year rolling average—just to offer a snapshot of how talented NU had been over the previous decade for any year—as well as Matt Rhule’s stints at Temple and Baylor. (More on that later.) I’d encourage you to roll around on that chart as there’s plenty of interesting discussions to be had.3 (And view it on desktop if you can, where it isn’t so squished.)

The Past

The NFL was still developing in the early part of the century, so I didn’t really start looking at these numbers intently until Bob Devaney arrived in 1962.4 The most interesting way to summarize that chart above is to break it out by coaches:

Bob Devaney (1962-72): Devaney’s first NU team produced zero draft picks and the 10-year average he inherited was at nearly a 20-year low. Pretty big jump in 1964, however, and in the years trailing Nebraska’s first two national titles. Was the uptick in pro-caliber talent coaching? Recruiting? The unanswerable question unless you’re content to just say, “both.” Career Draft Points Average: 8.2.

Tom Osborne (1973-97): Now it gets really interesting, and this is probably something that will require its own newsletter later this offseason, but Nebraska’s 10-year average peaks in 1982 at 12.6 and has fallen to 8.6 by the 1996 NFL Draft, the year after NU won back-to-back titles. Some of the trend in this era is probably the option offense, which made the college-to-pro transition hard for even very good quarterbacks and wide receivers. While the rolling trendline was pointing down for most of Osborne’s tenure, this was still Nebraska’s best era for putting players in the NFL. Career DPA: 10.3

Frank Solich (1998-2003): Recruiting was really the only viable justification for letting Solich go after the 2003 season, and maybe you see some of its impact here. Though if that was the reason to make the change, the chosen change wasn’t the right one. Career DPA: 6.3

Bill Callahan (2004-07): He could recruit and brought a more pro-friendly offense, so Callahan’s ability to put players in the pros was essentially the same as Solich’s. Callahan only had four recruiting cycles to stock the roster, but he and his staff’s work would have an impact in the years to come. Career DPA: 6.3

Bo Pelini (2008-14): The first one that was lower than I expected. Pelini had a nice spike in 2011, coming of his best two seasons in Lincoln, but a conference change and a not necessarily related drop in draftable players was coming. Pelini was…let’s say…not in love with recruiting, but to his credit he had at least 5 Draft Points after each of his seasons minus 2012, a season in which NU played for the Big Ten title. Career DPA: 4.9

Mike Riley (2015-17): He’d traveled everywhere in this football land—including Canada and the pros—but things sort of bottom out here after a solid first draft year (Pelini recruits) with Riley’s team producing just one late-round pick in the 2017 and 2018 drafts. Career DPA: 2.7

Scott Frost (2018-22): Neither the Big Ten nor the NFL really had to adjust to Frost’s Nebraska. The draft after his first season snapped NU’s decades-long streak of having a player drafted, and it wasn’t a blip. The Huskers put three in the 2022 draft following the most maddening 3-9 season possible, which is the best draft performance of the past 10 years, but it was hard to feel too optimistic about it.5 Career DPA: 2.2

Matt Rhule (2023-now): His Huskers have had three players drafted over three seasons—including an 0-fer in 2024—and all three were Frost-era recruits. Rhule and staff deserve at least some credit, however, for maximizing what they got out of Ty Robinson and Emmett Johnson.6 Career DPA: 1.5

So, that’s the whole sordid but not surprising tale of where things have been.

The Present

What’s a realistic expectation for Nebraska’s draft performance in today’s game? How many players picked would be enough to produce wins at a level most would accept?

It’s not what Ohio State does. Nebraska has never recruited that well over a length of time. It could be what Iowa does—maybe should be—but it hasn’t been of late.

Sticking with my own scoring system here, I look to the Pelini era. His teams never won fewer than nine games, were maddening and exhilarating (often on the same drive) and, yes, eventually Husker fans got tired of that, too. But today’s Husker fans are in a different place.

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Pelini’s roughly 5 DPA average feels reasonable to me. More importantly it feels doable. We’re talking about a first- and second-rounder to get to 5. Or a third-rounder and three late-round picks.

Can a team more easily change games with two to four pro players? Yeah, if that’s about the average year after year.

The Future

Maybe the present wasn’t a rosy enough outlook, so let’s think big. I have a tough time going all the way big given NU hasn’t produced double-digit draft points since 1998, the draft following Osborne’s final season. Those days might be gone.

But if something more than the Pelini era is the target, what’s that take? I’d set the number at 7, a number NU has met or exceeded only four times this century—2001, 2005,7 2007 and 2011. You can do math on all the different ways to get to 7, but it’s basically a minimum of three players picked.

That’s where I’d put the target, but the reason I included Rhule’s Temple and Baylor tenures above is because it adds to the conversation. Those teams and his trajectory over those seven seasons were enough to propel him to the NFL, but those teams didn’t put a ton of players in the draft. Rhule’s first two Temple teams produced no draft picks before sending three each after the two good years. At Baylor, Rhule again struck out on draft picks after his first season but had a four-player draft after his third. In terms of draft points, a Rhule-led team has produced 5 or more twice.

Production like that, however, is still better than NU’s recent past, including Rhule’s own past in Lincoln to date. It would fall in line with the least and the most that is probably reasonable to expect at Nebraska right now.

Rhule won at Temple and Baylor without big numbers of pros, but he had some good ones. That’s maybe the good news. In the past, you could still win in college that way.

Maybe the bad news? Can you still win that way today in a transfer era, when the past two drafts already show that talent is consolidating with the power-conference schools but spreading out among the power schools themselves?

We’ll know when Nebraska either wins nine-plus games or has more than three players drafted again, though those will probably be the same season. That’s what you get with a trailing indicator such as the draft.

But it beats the alternative. You wouldn’t want to lose a bunch of games and then have a bunch of players drafted. If you can say nothing else about NU’s current draft run, you can at least say it hasn’t had that.

As the NFL draft began Thursday in Pittsburgh, plenty was taking place in Lincoln. One of those things? TV negotiations for the future of the Big Ten football title game. Let’s just say there was a lot of interest by a specific outlet to regain those rights.

Other than that, basketball received another commitment, while tennis and swimming had plenty of recognition. It wasn’t just on a local stage either. We’re talking internationally.

Let’s get into it.

Big Ten title game back on FOX

The Big Ten Championship Game is heading back to FOX.

After NBC briefly held the rights, FOX officially finalized a deal to re-acquire the broadcast for the 2026 title game, according to reports this week. NBC reportedly received between $45 million and $55 million for the move, plus one additional Big Ten game this season.

The 2025 Big Ten title game between undefeated Indiana and Ohio State pulled 18.3 million viewers, making it the most-watched conference championship game of the weekend and the sixth-most watched college football game of the season overall. It outdrew the SEC title game by nearly 1.5 million viewers.

FOX now holds the rights to five of the next seven Big Ten title games under the current agreement, with CBS owning the other two. For a network that has made “Big Noon” and Big Ten football central to its fall identity, bringing the championship game makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons.

Nebraska basketball adds Taj DeGourville and keeps building

Nebraska landed San Diego State transfer Taj DeGourville on Thursday, giving the Huskers a 6-foot-5 wing with two years of eligibility remaining and another player who fits the program’s identity more than just its stat sheet.

His numbers at SDSU—5.3 points, 2.9 rebounds and 2.5 assists per game across two seasons—won’t jump off the page. But San Diego State is a place where toughness and defense determine minutes, and DeGourville played 64 games there. His three-point percentage also climbed from 30.4% to 34.5% between freshman and sophomore seasons.

Nebraska now has just two open roster spots left, and the roster construction is becoming clearer. The frontcourt has already been reshaped with Sam Orme, Kadyn Betts and Boden Kapke. DeGourville and Trevan Leonhardt help the perimeter.

The bigger question is still what happens with the final two spots.

Do the Huskers add more frontcourt depth? Do they hold for possible eligibility changes if the NCAA moves toward a five-for-five model? Do internal returns change the math?

We’ll see what happens.

Women’s tennis gets the recognition it earned

Nebraska women’s tennis had the kind of season that deserved conference recognition and this week it got it.

Maria Taranova and Katie Spencer were both named All-Big Ten Second Team selections, while Spencer also earned All-Freshman Team honors. Spencer’s freshman year was especially impressive.

She led Nebraska in spring singles wins with 12, tied for the team lead in doubles victories and floated between the No. 1, No. 2 and No. 3 singles spots without looking overwhelmed by any of it. She also helped anchor the No. 40 doubles pairing in the country alongside Conley Raidt.

That’s a lot for a freshman.

Taranova, meanwhile, handled the grind of No. 1 singles and picked up wins over multiple ranked conference opponents while regularly facing some of the best players in the country. That role doesn’t always produce the prettiest record, but it usually tells you who the program trusts most.

Spencer being this good this early matters for the long-term ceiling of the program. Taranova’s consistency matters for the present.

Men’s tennis keeps pushing

On the men’s side, Henry Bilicic earned Big Ten Sportsmanship honors, and honestly, sometimes those awards say more than a stat line ever could.

Head coach Peter Kobelt made that clear.

“He’s been a leader for our team both on and off the court the past two years,” Kobelt said. “While one of our team values is being a good sport, win or lose, I believe a lot of it stems from Henry. He’s done so much for the program that no one sees. Always willing to go the extra mile for the guys, the program and the community. No one deserves this award more than him.”

Bilicic is finishing his final collegiate season after helping Nebraska to 12 wins, four ranked victories and a Big Ten Tournament upset over No. 39 Michigan.

He also checks every academic and leadership box imaginable from Academic All-Big Ten, Distinguished Scholar to the Tom Osborne Citizenship Team and more.

Programs don’t stay stable because of one star season. They stay stable because guys like Bilicic hold the standard every day when nobody’s watching.

Nebraska advanced to face Ohio State in Ojai, California, on Thursday1 and regardless of how postseason play ends, his role in this season is already clear.

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Beatrix Tanko keeps rewriting the record book

Nebraska swimming had a strong international week, but Beatrix Tanko stole it.

The junior collected her second gold medal at the 2026 Hungarian National Championships by winning the 100m fly in a personal-best 58.53 after already taking the 50m fly title earlier in the week. She broke her own school standard in the process and improved significantly from last year, when she won silver in 59.41.

Amelia Riggott also posted a new long-course personal best in the 100m breaststroke at the Aquatics Great Britain Championships, while Maisie Gilford added a strong B final finish in the 50m free.

Swimming stories like this can get buried because they happen internationally and outside of the direct spotlight in Lincoln, but they matter because they show where Nebraska’s program stands globally. Tanko winning gold isn’t just a good Nebraska story. It’s a reminder that some of the best athletes on campus are competing on stages people don’t always see.

And often, winning there says the most.

College football’s classic chicken-or-egg conundrum is talent versus coaching. If you could lock in one for your team to experience maximum success in the future, would you choose top-tier talent with coaching quality as the variable or top-tier coaching with quality of talent as the variable?

I’ve always felt the majority opinion on this sided with “talent” for a few reasons. One, it’s easier to estimate—using recruiting rankings or, today, transfer rankings—and can be continually updated. Two, every top-tier coach ever has probably been quoted as saying something like “you need to have good players.”1 Three, a lot of the easier-to-find evidence pointed to “stars matter,” which meant the method was continually espoused because, well, just look around, man.

I’ve always sided with the minority here. Maybe it’s a desire for romance, a subconscious preference for craft.2 Maybe it’s a regional bias. I am a Nebraskan and grew up during peak-era Tom Osborne, where the Huskers were always more talented than about 80% of the teams on the schedule, but, from ages 1 (1980) to about 15 (1994), Nebraska almost always lost to the teams in the 20%.3 Then it all changed for Osborne and the Huskers even though nothing outside of minor tweaks or routine maintenance had actually changed. Part of my bias here might also be hopeful hedging because I don’t foresee a future where Nebraska is more talented than 80% of its schedule, so it would be better for the beat I’ve chosen if coaching matters more.

I could continue this debate forever—because I’m forever having it with myself in my head—but the actual topic today is talent. Does Nebraska have enough in 2026? Always tough to say with certainty, but we can at least look at it through a different lens.

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Nebraska was in Omaha Friday night for its second exhibition match of the spring, this time against in-state foe Creighton.

The Huskers controlled Creighton for three sets in the matchup, then let the fourth go in a way that wasn’t so great. It was a learning opportunity, of course, because the result wasn’t the takeaway in the end. The structure was.

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Two matches into the spring and we’re starting to see how Nebraska might narrow its options on the court come fall. Not in who plays—that’s a deeper dive for another day—but in how everything fits together.

Let’s dive in.

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From March 3, the date of Nebraska baseball’s home opener, to April 5, the Huskers won 21 of 22 games. Not bad for a stretch of 33 days. After a 5-5 start, which included a couple of nice wins over Auburn and Florida State, Nebraska exited March like a lion, bolstering its tournament résumé even if it was somewhat hard to know what to make of the run against a mushy Big Ten slate.

No need for concern, however, as the Huskers’ two week stretch starting April 7 looked like it would define the rest of the season. Nebraska was set to face Kansas (an equal by RPI), Oregon (equal, but on the road), Creighton (rival), USC (equal) and KU again (equal, this time on the road). Following nine up-for-grabs games, we’d know a lot more about this team.

After the weekend sweep of No. 12 USC, the Huskers guaranteed that they’ll come out of these two weeks ahead in the win column.

That’s despite opening this defining stretch with a 5-3 loss to Kansas, then unranked, and dropping two of three to No. 21 Oregon. It was a 1-3 run over the first full week of April, just as everyone was turning more of their attention to baseball, but it was tough to pack much panic into NU’s trip to Eugene. The Huskers and Ducks both scored 20 runs over three games, yet Oregon took the series with a pair of one-run wins. Beyond the result, it was an encouraging performance.

If Nebraska could steer out of its first slight skid in a month.

Last week, the Huskers rallied from a 4-0 deficit to beat Creighton in Lincoln. Then on Friday, they struggled against USC ace Mason Edwards for 7 innings—he struck out 12—before rallying for 5 runs in the eighth and ninth innings, winning in the 10^th on a “walk-off bunt” from Mac Moyer when it produced a Trojan throwing error that allowed Rhett Stokes to score from first.

Weird. Improbable. USC had been the fastest-rising team in the Big Ten entering the weekend, but a win’s a win. Which is essentially what I said when asked about it Saturday morning to a radio appearance, also asking out loud if it would just be a “weird one” or if it would provide some momentum over the next two games.

Nebraska answered that emphatically with a pair of run-rule wins, 12-2 in 7 Saturday, 16-6 in 8 Sunday. The sweep kept the Huskers alone in second place in the Big Ten, trailing top-ranked UCLA, which is 21-0 in conference play.1

And it put NU at 5-3 for this important two week stretch with a revenge opportunity at Kansas Tuesday. The No. 18 Jayhawks have won six of seven since beating the Huskers, including a sweep of No. 12 UCF. Win or lose, Nebraska will come out of these two weeks having strengthened its case as a solid tournament team with perhaps some still-unexplored upside entering the final month of the season.

The Huskers close Big Ten play with series against Illinois (20-18, 8-10), Ohio State (19-19, 9-9), Iowa (21-16, 7-11) and Minnesota (22-17, 5-13). Lot of opportunity ahead.

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Odds & Ends

• You know who likes Emmett Johnson? OG draft guru Mel Kiper Jr. Johnson landed on Kiper’s draft favorites list, the only running back to take it, with Kiper writing: “Johnson was the glue of that Nebraska team last season, and his coaches rave about him. I have him as my RB3, and he should be a third- or fourth-round pick.”

• The NFL Mock Draft Database, which compiles hundreds of the many mocks into a consensus big board, shows Johnson as the fifth-best back, projected to go in the fourth round. The same consensus had DeShon Singleton as the 20^th-ranked safety and Ceyair Wright 35^th at cornerback, which would make both undrafted free agents.

• Nebraska softball had no problems in Minneapolis this weekend, outscoring Minnesota 32-4 in a three-game sweep. That kept the Huskers, 17-1 in Big Ten play, one game ahead of Oregon and UCLA (both 16-2). It was NU’s 11^thconsecutive win and 12^th straight on the road, the latter being the longest active streak in the country. The Huskers face Omaha on the road Tuesday before hosting Iowa for a three-game series over the weekend.

• Men’s gymnastics finished fourth at the NCAA Championships, which concluded Saturday. Asher Cohen took the rings title, a storybook end to a season the team had dedicated to Jim Hartung, a 1982 national champion in the same event who passed away shortly before the season.

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Nebraska volleyball didn’t need much to make this week feel pretty important.

One matchup got added to the 2026 schedule, while another format got introduced to the Big Ten Conference. Suddenly, the shape of the sport—and Nebraska’s place in it—continues to grow.

That’s not all that took place this week, of course.

Let’s get into it.

Nebraska vs. Texas is back

Some matchups don’t need a sell. Nebraska and Texas is one of them.

For the first time since the 2023 national championship match, the two programs are set to meet again. There’s still some uncertainty around the details—date, location, all of that1—but the significance doesn’t really depend on those pieces being finalized.

These are two programs that have spent the better part of the last decade circling each other in the biggest moments of the sport. Sometimes that’s been in the national title match. Sometimes it’s been one step before. Either way, the stakes have rarely been small.

Texas has had the upper hand more recently, including that straight-set win for the title three years ago. But zoom out, and this is still a rivalry with very little separating the two sides historically. That’s what makes this version interesting.

Both teams are coming off seasons where they felt like they should have gone further. Nebraska had the path in front of it before running into Texas A&M. Texas had a similar trajectory before getting knocked out earlier than expected.

Now they meet again and not in December. This time, it’s in a spot that will still tell you a lot about where each program is headed.

It won’t be the only high-profile setting Nebraska steps into either. Between the Chicago trip and now this, the schedule is clearly being built with intention. More to come too.

The Big Ten is finally adding a tournament

This has been coming for a while. Now it’s official.

The Big Ten will introduce its first-ever postseason volleyball tournament in November 2026. That alone is a shift but the structure is what really stands out.

Fifteen teams. One site. A full week of matches leading into a championship.

“For the first time in its history, the Big Ten Conference will determine its volleyball champion with a postseason tournament featuring the best volleyball teams in the country,” said Commissioner Tony Petitti in a statement. “We look forward to bringing the nation’s top talent together for an entire week of exhilarating competition culminating in the crowning of the inaugural Big Ten Volleyball Tournament Champion.”

At surface level, it feels like an obvious addition. Every other major sport has a conference tournament. Volleyball didn’t. But the ripple effects are real.

The regular season shrinks slightly and the margin for error changes. For programs like Nebraska, which are built to sustain success over a long stretch, there’s now another layer of pressure at the end.

At the same time, this is also about visibility.

Big Ten volleyball already draws. It already delivers ratings. It already leads the country in attendance. This tournament packages all of that into one place at one time, which is exactly what the sport has been trending toward.

It’s not hard to see where this is going.

Soccer’s schedule sets up a big finish at home

Schedules don’t always tell you much at first glance but this one does.

Nebraska soccer’s 2026 conference slate builds toward something at the end. That’s the part worth paying attention to.

The Huskers open in a fairly standard way with Indiana, Iowa and a mix of home and road matchups early. But the back half is where things tighten.

Three of the final four matches are in Lincoln. Illinois, USC, UCLA, all in a row. That’s a stretch that’s going to decide positioning heading into the Big Ten Tournament.

If Nebraska is in the mix late—and that’s the expectation—those matches won’t just be about results. They’ll be about whether the team can handle the kind of pressure that comes with meaningful games in October.

And it’s not just who they play. It’s where.

Closing at home matters. It gives Nebraska a chance to control its own path instead of chasing it. That doesn’t guarantee anything, but it does set the stage.

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Huskers are competing globally

Nebraska’s swimmers are competing across multiple international events right now. If you haven’t been paying attention, here’s how things have gone this week.

Aurora Zanin put together a solid showing in the 400m IM, advancing through prelims and competing in the B final. Amelia Riggott posted a lifetime best in the 50m breaststroke before finishing eighth at the Aquatics GB Championships.

These aren’t isolated appearances. Nebraska has athletes representing Italy, Great Britain and Hungary—all competing at a high level in their respective national meets. Beatrix Tanko contributing to relay improvements. Giulia Marchi advancing through heats. Multiple athletes building momentum outside the college season.

That kind of presence says something about the program when you look at the big picture. Right now, Nebraska is developing athletes who can step into international environments and hold their own.

That’s a different standard and it’s one that deserves attention.

Sam Hoiberg’s recognition says more than just “student-athlete”

Sam Hoiberg was named a first-team Academic All-American on Tuesday. That’s a big deal and puts him in a small group nationally. It also tells a more complete story about what Nebraska basketball looked like this past season.

Hoiberg wasn’t just part of the most successful team in program history. He was central to it.

He started every game. He handled the ball. He defended at a high level. He made decisions that didn’t always show up in highlights but consistently put the team in position to win.

And he did all of that while maintaining a 3.479 GPA and building one of the strongest academic resumes in the country.

There’s a tendency to separate those things. We often talk about the performance and academics of student-athletes as if they exist independent of one another. As someone that teaches at Nebraska, spoiler alert: they don’t.

And in this case, they reinforce each other.

Hoiberg’s control on the court shows up in the numbers. His discipline off it shows up in everything else.

And when you add in the historical layer—the connection to his father’s own Academic All-American honor—it becomes something even more specific.

A strong season and a strong career on the court? Yes. A strong showing off the court? That too.

This has been a week of many storylines. Some are even global.

It’s a mix of momentum and transition. It’s a fun place to be, and even more fun to talk about.

Where were you when Riley Van Popple blocked that field goal against Akron last year?

What? Don’t remember that one? I didn’t.

It was in the third quarter of a game Nebraska already led 40-0. Plenty of people were only half paying attention at that point. But by season’s end this forgettable exchange would become singular.

This would be the Huskers’ only red zone stop of the season, a season that was then just 93 minutes old.

As I continue to piece together what the equation for impressive1 football looks like in 2026, I’m becoming more convinced that nothing, not even turnover margin, might matter as much as what Nebraska does when the ball is inside the 20.

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Spring matches aren’t supposed to tell you everything. They’re often imperfect as teams experiment with lineups and keep the rotations fluid. That means you might see flashes of what could be, but not the finished product.

That’s part of the fun.

Nebraska’s 4-0 win over Iowa State at the Sanford Pentagon in Sioux Falls, South Dakota—25-17, 25-16, 25-16, 26-24 in front of 3,376 fans—had the flashes. If you were only paying attention to the scoreline, you might have missed them. After all, Nebraska hit .360 to Iowa State’s .171, controlled the match for long stretches and got contributions from just about everywhere. It was pretty by the book, when you look at it that way.

If you zoom out though, there was more to see and understand. It was the first real glimpse of what this roster might become and more importantly, how many different directions it could go.

That’s where things get interesting.

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Curt Cignetti had it easier at Indiana than Bob Devaney did when he took over Nebraska in 1962.

There, I wrote it. Not sure I buy it, but there’s at least one piece of admissible evidence that could make it into court.

Cignetti’s two-year run with the Hoosiers doesn’t need a sales pitch, but it came with one built in—a national title at the school that was once the losingest major program of all time. Just had to, y’know, win the games, and then it sold itself. It’s tough to resist, though I always have a moment’s hesitation of “what does 1957 Indiana have to do with 2025?”

But even if you limit the look-back period to 20 years, Indiana’s rise under Cignetti is hardly diminished. The Hoosiers ranked 111^th nationally with a .378 winning percentage pre-Cignetti. It’s still a massive leap.

At Nebraska, memory calcifies at the opposite end. The Huskers are still one of the 10 winningest programs all time. For those of us who weren’t around to remember Devaney’s arrival in 1962, it’s easy to believe that Nebraska was always near the top of the college football heap. You don’t get to the top 10 all time without consistent periods of success, and NU had those pre-Devaney, but it wasn’t anything close to the 60 years that were to follow. When Devaney arrived, Nebraska’s all-time winning percentage (.615) ranked 39^th. Not bad, but behind such schools as Syracuse, Arizona, Wisconsin and Stanford.

The 20 years prior to 1962, however, were a particularly dark time in Lincoln. Nebraska won just 36.4% of its games between 1942 and 1961, 122^nd nationally.

And thus, your honor, it’s plain to see that the 20-year Nebraska Bob Devaney inherited was ever so slightly worse than the 20-year Indiana Curt Cignetti inherited. No need for opposing arguments. Bang the gavel now, please.

What is the relevant look-back period when trying to assess a coach? There’s probably not a definite answer and if there is, I definitely don’t have it. But I was thinking in 20-year chunks after reading how Bill Connelly calculates his coaching effect measure using his SP+ ratings:

The coach rating is derived 60% from a team’s performance against that 20-year baseline (so, if your SP+ rating is 10.0 in a given season, and your school’s 20-year average rating was 5.0, that’s a +5.0) and 40% from the raw SP+ rating. As you might expect, Indiana’s performance in 2025 nearly broke the scale.

Yes, there’s no getting around how quickly1 Cignetti took Indiana to these heights, but my real interest in this method was in what it might help frame about Matt Rhule’s first three seasons in Lincoln. How do they compare to all of his post-Osborne successors at the same stage in their tenures.

I used the same 20-year baseline for degree of difficulty but took each coach’s SP+ average after three seasons as the performance part of the equation. Do that, and it looks like this:

There’s probably not much there that surprises anyone who has followed the Huskers’ descent post-Osborne, but I think the numbers offer a lot of context about the past 25-ish years of the program. Too much, in fact, unless I want this to be a 2,000-word newsletter.

I do not, so I’ll just stick to three takeaways about Rhule’s first three seasons.

The Good: Technically you can say with some backing that Rhule is the third-best coach NU has had after his first three seasons in the post-Osborne era. A little less tongue in cheek: Rhule is the first NU coach of that period to improve Nebraska’s SP+ rating in each of his first three seasons. If you’re seeking some “it’s just a slow build” evidence, there is some.

The Bad: It’s still a negative coaching effect, which I think is the nagging feeling many Huskers have this offseason. There’s no doubt Nebraska is a better team in a better place than where it was after 2022, but the highs just haven’t been high enough to really differentiate this tenure yet from most of the others that preceded it. This is a bit surprising given that in Connelly’s 2025 ratings of the best active FBS coaches (minimum 4 seasons) Rhule came in 30^th with a career effect of 4.7.

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The Unfeeling: Part of the reason for using a model such as this2 is to get out of the weeds, away from some details that might take on too much weight due to recency. I don’t think we see that risk in the table. What we see is a program slipping from its previous heights, reflected by the declining 20-year average, and a series of coaches who never quite caught up even though the defined baseline3 was declining.

But I also feel like it’s almost impossible to overrate recency in college football right now. Game days look and feel the same, but does anything else?

In Rhule’s case, the 20-year look-back is from the last year of Solich (2003) to the last year of Frost (2022). That’s his baseline for this calculation and that span includes some pretty good seasons. Seasons his Huskers haven’t had yet.

But because of the upheaval of the sport in the last five years, I wondered what happened if a 10-year baseline was used for comparison. That made a few changes to the list. Nothing major, but of note:

• Pelini (9.5) edges out Solich (9.3) for best coach effect after three seasons. The context for the two coaches was completely different, but I will say this better matches how I felt about both tenures at that point.

• Callahan (-6.3) and Frost (-3.3) look about the same—i.e., not good—but Riley (-1.1) looks a bit better by being compared only against Callahan and Pelini. It’s still not good.

• Rhule with a 10-year baseline comes closer to zero at -0.4, Against an inherited expectation of being 7 points better than the average FBS team, his teams have been 4 points better on average, and that’s probably closer to how I feel about this era entering Year 4. The decade prior to 2023 feels like a more relevant comparison than the two decades prior, but it’s certainly debatable. Pick whatever sample you think feels right.

But before you do, consider this: In the decade prior to Cignetti at Indiana the Hoosiers had a .412 winning percentage (103^rd). That’s still better than what Devaney arrived to at a program with a .391 winning percentage (111^th) over the prior decade.

At the very least we’ve established today that Cignetti is guilty of Devaney erasure. Not sure what sort of sentence that carries.

It’s been quite the week, but that’s to be expected when the transfer portal opens.

There’s real momentum in a few places. There always is. There’s also some uncertainty. There always is.

Let’s get into it.

The core returns for women’s basketball

“Don’t worry we’re back #gbr.”

That message, shared by Allison Weidner on Instagram Stories, did more than confirm a return. It settled the biggest question hanging over Nebraska’s offseason: what happens with Britt Prince?

Prince comes back as the centerpiece and not just because of the numbers, even though those are hard to ignore. She’s coming off a season where she led Nebraska across the board while shooting with an efficiency that doesn’t usually pair with that kind of volume. The jump from her freshman year to her sophomore season was decisive.

“I want to lay it all on the line for my teammates. I love them. I love playing with them. We all wish the outcome was different, but I thought we fought hard out there and we laid it all out on the line for each other,” Prince said following Nebraska’s NCAA Tournament loss to Baylor.

That mindset matters for Nebraska just as much as the production, especially when you’re building something that’s supposed to last.

Weidner’s return adds another layer to this. Not because of what she’s done recently—she hasn’t had that opportunity—but because of what it represents. Multiple knee injuries could have easily ended her trajectory. Instead, she’s working her way back into a roster that now has real expectations attached to it.

That combination—elite production at the top and resilience within the group—is what gives Nebraska a legitimate starting point going into next season.

Portal movement is here and it’s not simple

Berke Büyüktuncel entering the portal is the first real test of how Nebraska men’s basketball navigates that balance after a breakthrough season.

“I’m beyond thankful to Coach Hoiberg — not only an exceptional coach, but one of the best human beings I’ve had the privilege to learn from — along with our entire staff, my teammates and our incredible fans,” Büyüktuncel shared on social media.

This isn’t a clean, easy loss to evaluate. On paper, you can point to the numbers. Büyüktuncel was solid, but not overwhelming. That doesn’t fully capture what he brought to the floor though. His ability to defend, move the ball and operate as a connective piece in Nebraska’s system made things work in ways that don’t always show up in the box score. That’s the harder part to replace.

There’s also the reality of the portal itself. Entering doesn’t always mean leaving but it shifts the odds. Once a player steps into that space, the process changes.

Nebraska now has to operate with that uncertainty while also addressing a roster that already needed work. With multiple departures and eligibility losses, the staff is now tasked with rebuilding parts of the rotation.1

That’s where Fred Hoiberg’s emphasis becomes important.

“First of all, they have to fit the culture,” Hoiberg said earlier this week. “They have to fit with the group of guys that we’re gonna have coming back.”

Finding talent is one thing. Finding players who can plug into a system that depends on spacing, decision-making, and adaptability is something else entirely.

“We do need help in that area,” Hoiberg said. “We’re gonna identify those players that we feel fit from that standpoint. But if you can get the point forward, or the hybrid type big, maybe that pure point isn’t quite as important.”

That gives you a sense of direction. It also makes clear what’s at stake.

On the other side of it, Frager returns

After redshirting and then stepping into a major role, Braden Frager gave Nebraska something it didn’t consistently have before: offensive aggression without hesitation. He didn’t need to be perfect. He just needed to be willing.

And in March, that showed up in a way people won’t forget.

The game-winner against Vanderbilt is the obvious moment. But the larger takeaway is how he grew into that role over the course of the season. That kind of development isn’t guaranteed to carry over but when it does, it changes the ceiling of a team.

With so much turnover around him, Frager becomes more than just a returning contributor. He becomes part of the identity moving forward.

There’s opportunity in that.

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John Cook’s impact keeps expanding

The International Volleyball Hall of Fame has selected John Cook for the Mayoral Award of Excellence. Let’s just say that’s more than deserved based on what he’s both built and reached in his career.

“I’m incredibly honored to receive this recognition from the International Volleyball Hall of Fame. Nebraska has always been a special place for volleyball, and everything I’ve helped build has been driven by the passion of our players, staff, and fans,” Cook said in a statement. “What’s meant the most to me is seeing how deeply this sport has connected with people in Nebraska and united communities across the state. To watch volleyball continue to grow here and beyond, and to be part of that at both the collegiate and professional levels, is something I’m very proud of.”

Nebraska volleyball became more than just successful under Cook. It became central in the volleyball world. To the school, to the state, and now increasingly to the broader conversation around women’s sports.

The Memorial Stadium match in 2023 is the most visible example but it’s not the only one. The continued success of the Omaha Supernovas adds another layer to that impact, showing that the demand for volleyball is sustainable.

A reset in gymnastics

We touched on this earlier in the week, but it’s worth circling back to. Nebraska is moving on from Heather Brink after eight seasons.

“I want to thank Heather Brink for her service to our women’s gymnastics program and Husker Athletics,” athletics director Troy Dannen said in a statement. “Heather has a great history here as a student-athlete, an assistant coach and as head coach, and she will always be known as one of the greatest Huskers. Moving forward, we will look for the right individual to build on the foundation Heather has put in place and elevate our program back to being a Big Ten and national contender.”

Nebraska is handing this search off to Elevate College, and the search began immediately.

And that’s the week that was in Nebraska Athletics.

The weekend ahead has plenty to pay attention to as well, like Nebraska volleyball’s spring match against Iowa State in Sioux Falls, South Dakota. The match is set to begin at 1 p.m. and will be broadcast on Big Ten Network.

We’ll have more next week.

Welcome to Wild Theory Thursday. It is not a recurring event1 nor a preexisting series. It’s just Thursday and I have a theory about Nebraska football success in 2026. If it becomes a thing, you’ll have been here at the inception, like an …

Here’s the theory: Thanks to three of the Huskers’ highest-profile additions this offseason, I think Nebraska has a chance to be very good on first down this season. I don’t think this theory has been forwarded anywhere else because, well, it’s esoteric. Nobody else was looking for it. And I’m now going to pitch you on the value of something a) few knew existed, and b) even fewer knew they needed.

Why does first down matter? It’s the most common down in football. You don’t have any other downs without having first down first. That’s the obvious reason. By default, if a team is “winning” first down it is winning most of a football game.

The less obvious reason is because we’re in a defensive renaissance in the college game. Possessions are down. Explosive plays are down. Meanwhile, points per possession aren’t down significantly and plays per possession are up.

Essentially, teams are having to put together longer, more efficient drives to produce points. Explosive plays used to be an effective cheat code for avoiding this, and they still work. They’re just less common—down almost a full percentage point—than they were five years ago.

This makes first downs incrementally more valuable, both as the most common down and also as the one that can deliver an advantage for what comes next. Three key players, all new, make first-down improvement possible for the 2026 Huskers, maybe even probable.

Before we get to the key players2 it should be noted that Nebraska wasn’t bad on first down a year ago. The offense averaged 6.13 yards per play (52^nd), and the defense allowed 5.29 (39^th). That 0.83 yard differential ranked 36^th, ahead of playoff teams Georgia and Tulane.

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Jordan Larson’s professional career is over. That sentence is simple but it doesn’t feel all that simple.

For nearly two decades, Larson hasn’t just been part of volleyball. She’s been one of the standards the sport measures itself against. Even with the runway she gave everyone by announcing this would be her final season—she made the announcement in January—the reality of it landing still feels a little hard to believe.

Saturday night at Baxter Arena wasn’t supposed to be the end. A win would have extended the season. It would have pushed this group into the postseason and delayed the inevitable. Instead, it became the ending.

LOVB Nebraska fell in five sets to LOVB Austin. It was a match full of big swings, long rallies and a heartbreaking fifth set. Nebraska stayed within reach, but Austin created just enough separation late to close it.

Larson finished the night with 19 kills. She hit efficiently and took big swings, forcing the match deeper when Nebraska slipped. It makes sense too. Larson had said ahead of the matchup that she would “go down swinging” if that’s what it took.

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It wasn’t close. On Sunday UCLA methodically and expertly plucked South Carolina for a 28-point win in the NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament championship, the third-largest win in the game’s history and the Bruins first national title. And now—like, tonight—the Big Ten has the chance to do something unprecedented.

If Michigan can beat Connecticut in the men’s title game in Indianapolis, the Big Ten would become the first conference to claim the football, men’s and women’s basketball national titles in the same year. The Wolverines were favored by 6.5 points Sunday night and have ripped through the bracket, becoming the first team to score 90-plus points and win by double-digits in every tournament game. Should Michigan complete its dominant run, it would be the Big Ten’s first title in men’s basketball since Michigan State in 1999–00.

These were already viewed as boom times for the Big Ten given Indiana’s football national title earlier this year, making it three straight for the conference where, less than 20 years ago, the commissioner felt compelled to write an “open letter” explaining why his conference couldn’t beat the SEC in the biggest games. But the Big Ten can beat its chest about football now, and it’s still the most important sport by multiples when it comes to fan mindshare. Sweep the basketball titles—the next two most-popular sports—and the drumbeat will be thunderous.

Prepare for so many trend stories.1 The Big Ten will have a third event (three major titles in one year) on top of a third event (three straight football championships), and you typically only need three to make a basic case for “there’s something happening here.”

As a conference member for 15 seasons, it’s good for Nebraska to be in this company. It makes arguing easier, at least. But the success of affiliated others almost always prompts some introspection as well.

What’s Nebraska’s place in the Big Ten’s recent run of high-profile results? As with most things in college athletics, this is mostly a football discussion, but in this case it’s partly a football discussion because, well, a lot of other things have been going great at NU of late.

The men’s basketball team just had its best season ever. Women’s basketball made its third-straight tournament, marking five appearances in nine seasons under Amy Williams. Wrestling has back-to-back top-three national finishes. Softball was ranked in the top-five last week, baseball the top-20, and both teams swept over the weekend. While Nebraska volleyball’s lone loss of the season last December was a surprising gut punch, it was still the lone loss of the season.

Near the end of the 2023–24 seasons, it looked like Nebraska could finish in the top-20 of the Director’s Cup2 for the first time since joining the Big Ten. The Huskers didn’t quite get there, finishing 22^nd, but that improved a spot last year and this year looks even more promising. Not a bad run considering NU finished 49^th in 2021–22, its lowest ranking ever in this tally that’s been kept since 1993.

And this recent run has happened without a breakout contribution from football.3 No need for a list of scare stats here when one will do: Since joining the Big Ten in 2011, Nebraska football has finished two seasons ranked in the final top-25. Even worse, it was the first two, 2011 and 2012.

Not exactly what the Big Ten thought it was getting upon Nebraska’s arrival, when the Huskers could still be viewed as a heavyweight alongside Michigan, Ohio State and Penn State. Since then, Nebraska football has been (perhaps generously) middle of the pack, surpassed by teams both maddening and nearly unthinkable to the person considering the Huskers’ Big Ten future in 2010.

The most fascinating Husker hypothetical of 2026 so far has to be former AD Bill Moos’s admission that he explored a return to the Big 12. Leave aside the rationality of such a decision and just focus on what it would’ve felt like.

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I guess it would’ve been nice-ish for a brief hit of nostalgia, though I think real Nebraska nostalgia is for the Big Eight.4 Who knows what would’ve happened to the Big 12 if the Huskers had returned, but as the conference stands now it’s an alliance of survivors who couldn’t get a spot in the most desirable compounds. I haven’t polled Colorado fans, but my guess is, after the Big Ten’s hostile takeover of the Pac-12 forced a CU return to the Big 12, few Buffs fans have experienced much, “ah, back where we belong,” feelings. Conferences aren’t where any team belongs anymore, it’s just where they get their bargaining power.

From a football-only perspective, the Moos move might’ve meant slightly better fortunes on Saturdays. At least for a bit, though I’m not sure NU football would’ve returned to the Big 12 with the same exalted status it entered the Big Ten. And with all of the changes that would’ve still presumably come after, say, a 2022 re-entry to the Big 12, the best-case scenario probably would’ve been playing slightly better football in a slightly lesser league.5

Worth it? Not in light of Nebraska’s recent success in most other sports. Not when the Big Ten is perhaps peaking. Those other Husker programs and coaches—some new, some not—found ways to adapt to a new league and the realities of a changing national landscape. Volleyball, the gold standard in Lincoln this century, is better because it plays in the Big Ten. Basketball is. Wrestling has to be. Maybe you could make the case that baseball and softball don’t get the same upside, but the downside hasn’t been drastic either.

But until football figures it out, the Big Ten’s overall success and standing, however long it lasts, is bound to feel like something good happening to somebody else.

That’s not just a Nebraska thing, it’s a football thing, but it might be uniquely hard in Nebraska to separate the two.

Welcome to that time of the year where a lot is happening all at once. In Nebraska’s case, that’s hosting multiple events, including a Big Ten Championship for men’s gymnastics.

Even more, you can head just up the road to Omaha Saturday evening and witness Jordan Larson’s final home match as a professional player with LOVB Nebraska. The Hooper native and three-time All-American at Nebraska is set to retire professionally following this season. More on that to come.

For now, let’s take a look at what’s going on in Lincoln. It’s certainly not going to be a boring one around here.

Let’s get into it.

Nebraska gymnastics hosts with something to prove

Nebraska men’s gymnastics isn’t just competing for a Big Ten title this weekend. It’s getting to do so at home.

Pinnacle Bank Arena will host the conference championships April 3-4, with a field that feels a bit like a national preview. Michigan enters as the regular-season champion but Nebraska isn’t far behind, sitting at No. 4 nationally and coming off its best team score of the season despite a loss in Ann Arbor.

The Huskers left that meet knowing exactly where the ceiling is and, more importantly, how close they are to hitting it. The margins at this level are small and Nebraska is trending in the right direction at the right time.

Individually, the lineup has a lot of promise across multiple events. Asher Cohen enters as the top-ranked rings specialist in the country and a Nissen-Emery finalist, which is one of the sport’s highest honors. Nathan York, Ty Roderiques and Max Odden are all positioned near the top nationally in their respective events.

And when Nebraska hits, it hits. The stuck landings in Ann Arbor—five of them—weren’t just cosmetic. They’re the difference between a good meet and a championship-level one.

Hosting adds another layer. It’s an advantage, especially with Husker fans in attendance. Nebraska knows that better than anyone.

A season ends but not without clarity

Nebraska women’s gymnastics didn’t advance out of Baton Rouge, but that’s summing it all up simply. The longer version of that story is that this team battled through a loaded regional, put together a 195.000 team score and showed consistency when it mattered.

There weren’t any glaring collapses and no single rotation derailed everything. Instead, it was a night where Nebraska stayed within itself, hit routines and ultimately ran into teams that had just a little more.

Lauren Homecillo set the tone early with a 9.900 on floor. Nya Kraus continued to be steady on bars. Isabel Sikon contributed across multiple rotations. The pieces were there, just like they’ve been all year. But postseason requires everything happening at the exact right time.

In Nebraska’s case, the Huskers were good. LSU, on the other hand, was great. Sometimes, that’s the difference.

Still, this doesn’t read like an ending that resets expectations when we look back at it. Nebraska is in the room and is competing at the level it needs to. Next season will provide the opportunity to keep taking it one step futher.

Track and field finally comes home

Seven years is a long time. That’s how long it’s been since Nebraska hosted an outdoor track meet. On Friday though? That changes.

The Husker Spring Kickoff isn’t just another early-season meet. It’s the unveiling of a completely renovated outdoor facility and a signal of where the program is headed, especially with the Big Ten Outdoor Championships coming to Lincoln later this spring.

Because of weather, everything is condensed into one day, which creates a different kind of energy. Field events and running events stacked closely together, a tighter window and a meet that will move quickly from start to finish.

Nebraska comes into the weekend following a strong showing in Miami. Xavier Bogan swept the horizontal jumps, while Arina Razina climbed into the top tier of Nebraska pole vaulters. Noa Isaia and Seth Schnakenberg made statements in the hammer throw.

At the same time as this weekend’s event in Lincoln, a portion of the roster heads west to the Stanford Invitational, splitting the squad between two competitive environments. That kind of distribution only works when there’s depth and Nebraska has it.

But more than anything, Friday marks the reintroduction of a home outdoor track for the Huskers. That’s pretty exciting, no?

Softball is getting national attention

Three Huskers landed in Softball America’s midseason position rankings and it’s not hard to see why.

Jordy Frahm has been one of the most complete players in the country, producing at the plate and in the circle at a level that’s difficult to replicate. A .400+ average paired with a conference-leading ERA isn’t normal. It’s the kind of production that changes games in multiple ways.

Alexis Jensen has been just as impactful in her role, piling up wins and strikeouts while limiting free passes. The efficiency stands out as much as the volume. When a freshman is already beating ranked teams and controlling innings the way she has, it shifts expectations quickly.

Then there’s Hannah Camenzind, who has quietly become one of the most consistent bats in the lineup. Starting every game, producing extra-base hits and getting on base at a high clip is the kind of reliability that holds everything together for a team working through a long season.

Ultimately though, Nebraska isn’t leaning on one player. It’s built around multiple pieces that can take over games in different ways. That balance is why the Huskers have been able to sustain success, not just flash it.

Dylan Carey is producing like one of the best in the country

Nebraska baseball has had a strong start as a team. Dylan Carey is a big reason why.

The numbers jump immediately with a .400 average, extra-base hits, run production and consistency across the board. But what stands out even more is how steady it’s been. Sixteen multi-hit games and 10 multi-RBI performances highlight sustained production from Carey. That’s exactly what Nebrasak needs.

Carey’s impact isn’t limited to this season either. Becoming Nebraska’s all-time doubles leader is the kind of milestone that puts his career in context. That record stood for a reason and breaking it speaks to both longevity and production.

For a team that’s already ranked and positioning itself well early in the season, having a player operating at this level changes the ceiling.

Bonus: a Saturday built for being outside

If you’re looking for a reason to be around Haymarket Park and Bowlin Stadium this weekend, Nebraska is making it easy.

Ballpark Bash runs from 11 a.m. to 2 p.m. on Saturday, with everything from games and inflatables to food and giveaways. It’s built to be accessible— no tickets required—and designed to bring people into the space before both softball and baseball get underway.

Softball hosts Rutgers at 1 p.m. Baseball follows against Penn State at 2 p.m.

It might be a bit chilly though—bring a jacket!—but not a bad way to spend a Saturday in Lincoln.

Nebraska’s 2026 football schedule is tough. You already know that, but just in case you need a reminder: The Huskers will face all three playoff qualifiers from the Big Ten in 2025 and six of the nine conference teams ranked ahead of them in the recently released SP+ ratings. Facts like that, and some of the early numbers, point to 6-6.

But if you zoom out a bit to view the schedule as a whole rather than focus on the most difficult1 stretches, you can more easily see the Huskers caught at least one break with this year’s slate.

Last year, as a way to get some distance from win totals and projected point spreads, I did the simplest thing possible—divide the 18-team Big Ten into three tiers. I used conference title odds to do the sorting last season, but here I’m using the SP+ ratings as the odds aren’t out yet.2

Does somewhat arbitrarily3 dividing the league into three produce some gray area? Absolutely. The difference in rating between the top of Tier 1 and the bottom is 15 points in SP+. The difference between the middle of Tier 1 and the top of Tier 2 is 2 points.

Even with that caveat, the tiers mostly held last year. Over the Big Ten’s 81 conference games, 43 were tier-to-tier matchups and 38 were games between teams of different tiers. Of the latter 38, there were only six instances (16%) of a lower-tiered team beating a team viewed to be superior in the preseason.

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Tell me if you’ve heard this one before: Nebraska volleyball is set to play in a unique venue that wasn’t built for volleyball matches.

Oh, you have? Great, let’s dive in.

When the Huskers take the court at Wrigley Field next September, it won’t feel like a surprise. It will feel like a continuation of something that has already been building. It’s something that, in a lot of ways, Nebraska helped start.

The announcement itself is easy to understand on the surface. The Big Ten and SEC are launching a conference challenge. Every team gets matched up. The week builds toward a doubleheader in Chicago, played inside one of the most recognizable venues in American sports.

Nebraska vs. Missouri. Penn State vs. Kentucky. National broadcast window on FOX. Primetime.

That’s the framework, but the setting matters more than the structure.

“Big Ten/SEC Volleyball Challenge Week culminating at Wrigley Field brings together the highest level of women’s volleyball competition, at one of the most iconic venues in the country,” Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti said in a statement. “As women’s volleyball participation, sponsorship, attendance and viewership continue to grow, we look forward to providing this unique opportunity to showcase the exceptional competition.”

That growth is more visible than ever, and measurable too. In Nebraska’s case, it’s already been proven.

Three years ago, the program hosted an outdoor match inside Memorial Stadium for Volleyball Day in Nebraska that turned it into something larger than the sport itself. More than 92,000 people showed up. The record mattered, but the reason behind it mattered more. People weren’t there out of curiosity. They were there because Nebraska had built something worth showing up for.

That’s the context for Wrigley.

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The Equation for Nebraska football in 2026 has yet to fully form in my mind, but it’s partially there. I mostly viewed Saturday’s spring game through that lens—show me something in the areas I’m already thinking will be important for the Huskers come fall.

These aren’t deeply held secrets, but part of the upside of taking the long view is that a mostly quiet spring, comparatively brisk (but entertaining) scrimmage or the “well, what can we really take from this?” nature of spring games is much of a hindrance.

So, here are three things I wanted to see1 Saturday compared against what I saw from the Red-White game.

Defense is NU’s biggest growth opportunity.

Tony White’s first defense at Nebraska ranked 9^th in SP+ (13.92) in 2023 and took a small step back to 17^th (15.8) in 2024. White left for Florida State and John Butler’s first and only NU defense dropped to 38^th (22.7). It wasn’t the outright collapse it felt like by the end of the year, but it looked like one over the final three games.

In 2025, Rob Aurich took his first and only San Diego State defense from 41^st the season prior (32.1) to 8^th (19.6). He engineered that change without a major influx of talent from the portal and without being all that reliant on turnovers.

Nebraska’s 2026 probably hinges on a similar trajectory for the Blackshirts. I would be foolish to say “it’s gonna happen” based on the spring game. It seems foolish to mention many of the stats given the basic objectives from an actual game—move the ball, score, win—are all muddled here, but neither offense averaged more than 5.1 yards per play.

This was more of a vibe thing. Having watched the game twice, I thought Nebraska looked closer to the defense we saw in 2023–24—more hats to the ball, solid tackling, more confidence in what they were doing. Both defenses just looked more active, an uptick that comes with confidence which comes with clarity.

Show me Anthony’s intangibles

No surprise, but UNLV transfer Anthony Colandrea looked like the guy at quarterback.3 He was an efficient 12-for-19 passing for 80 yards with two touchdowns and an interception while working with the top offense. Minus the yardage, that’s not far off what might be reasonable to expect when the games count. Colandrea will probably be about a 65% passer. He’ll get his touchdowns and made some strong, decisive throws. The interception was on a cross-body throw into traffic that simply shouldn’t have been made.

Colandrea’s running ability was mostly kept under wraps, but you saw a flash in a 12-yard run that might’ve been much longer if the quarterbacks actually had to be tackled. That part of his game will be vital to his total impact in Lincoln.

Overall, I think Colandrea’s chill swashbuckler nature could be the thing Nebraska needs this season. Most of the Husker quarterbacks I’ve covered eventually showed the weight of the inherent attention and expectations in Lincoln. This is a place that cares about who the third-string guard is and still views winning as the natural order of things.

Maybe I’ll be wrong, but my early impressions are Colandrea might be quirky-but-talented enough to not take on the weight over 12 games. It might feel a bit like early-era Taylor Martinez, though the weight (and injuries) eventually showed for him, too.

But Nebraska doesn’t need Colandrea for four years, it just needs him now.

What’s the wildcard?

Colandrea might be Nebraska’s best bet for an individual change agent, but against this 2026 schedule the Huskers will probably need another. That or get something almost unforeseen from somewhere else.

You could argue that Nebraska’s “wildcard” in 2025 was a special teams unit that ranked among the best in the country. You could also make a strong case for Emmett Johnson producing a first-team All-Big Ten season. Neither was enough to push NU past 7-5 in the regular season, which should provide an idea of how high the bar can be in this category.

But I liked what I saw from two running backs in the game. Jamal Rule led all rushers with 119 yards on nine attempts, including a 75-yard gallop. Take out the long touchdown and the true freshman still averaged 5.5 yards per carry, looking like he’ll be a factor in the fall. Bound to get less attention, but arguably more important, Isaiah Mozee looked strong with 6.8 yards per carry on six rushes.

It might be somewhat foolhardy to go looking for something unforeseen in a spring game, but I wasn’t looking for anything in particular. It was more just “somebody show me something,” and Mozee and Rule were two that jumped out. If the pair even combined for the numbers Johnson put up last year, I’d still count it as a surprise, but it feels closer to possible than it did pre-scrimmage.

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Big Picture

Last week ESPN’s Bill Connelly released his first SP+ rankings for 2026 with the Huskers coming in 37^th (7.7), 10^th-highest in the Big Ten. He also published detailed writeups on some of the components of those rankings. There was good news for NU; by Connelly’s method the Huskers are the second-most experienced team in the country. There was medium-good4 news as the Huskers were middle-of-the-pack when it came to “luck” in 2025.

But the real reason I’m always eagerly awaiting these rankings is they allow us to get a more detailed picture of the shape of the season ahead. We already know the Huskers’ schedule is daunting, and it really ramps up after the first five games. But by using the SP+ ratings to project point spreads for every game—using a blanket 2.5-point home-field advantage—we can compare that to historical results of outright wins since 2003 to estimate a win probability for every game. Sum those probabilities and you’ve got a projected win total.

Do all of that for Nebraska in 2026 and it looks like this:

How accurate has this method5 been? In 2024 the February SP+ ratings produced a projected win total of 7.3 and the actual point spreads at the times of the games—which factor in performance, injuries, weather, etc.—would’ve projected 7.1 (-2.7%). Nebraska went 6-6 in the regular season.

In 2025 the first SP+ ratings pointed to 7.5 wins in February and the actual lines produced 7.4 (-1.3%). The Huskers went 7-5 in the regular season.

Not bad for ratings produced five or six months in advance of any actual games, and this method is always pretty close to the win totals that come from the oddsmakers. A few weeks ago, FanDuel released an opening win total of 5.5 for NU, and it was quickly bet up to 6.5, which is closer to where SP+ might have it.

There will be outliers to what you see in the chart above. Prior to the 2024 season—before a lot of people knew much at all about Curt Cignetti—the early SP+ number for Nebraska-Indiana was around NU -11.5. The game went off at IU -6.5. Last year’s Michigan game looked like Wolverines -7 in the preseason but went off at Huskers -1.6 Things do change.

Just not as often as people think. There are examples of games looking nothing like we thought they would in the offseason. But even with those individual exceptions, the win totals still end up being about right by a two-thirds majority. Last year, half the Big Ten finished within a half game of the oddsmakers’ preseason win totals and another six teams were within 1.5 regular-season wins.

Point is, even after a spring game I would describe as mostly positive, there is solid evidence through all these numbers to believe Nebraska is most likely a six-win team in 2026.

The Equation, when it fully renders in the weeks ahead, will try to show a path to exceeding that. Spoiler alert: It’s probably going to take something significant from the Huskers.

It didn’t end the way Nebraska wanted. That part is unavoidable and it’s going to stick for a while.

If you’re only looking at the final three minutes in Houston though, you’re missing the bigger shift that happened over the last four months. Nebraska didn’t just have a good season. Instead, this team changed the conversation around what this program can be.

“Now that we’ve done it, this can’t be one every eight years,” coach Fred Hoiberg said post-game. “It’s got to be something where we’re competing in this tournament, and as you see, anything can happen. You can compete for championships if you get hot at the right time.

“Again, I’m so proud of these guys for everything that they accomplished for Nebraska basketball, and I know Husker Nation as well, as much as this one stings, when we hang that banner next year, it’s going to be a hell of a celebration.”

Let’s get into it.

A finish that hurts and a season that raised the bar

There’s a specific kind of frustration that comes with a game like Thursday night. It’s not the kind where a team gets run off the floor or is clearly overmatched, but the kind where control slowly slips away.

Nebraska led for most of the night. It dictated the tempo early, built a cushion and answered Iowa every time momentum started to tilt. For long stretches, it looked like the Huskers were going to finish it. Then the margins tightened.

Iowa didn’t overwhelm Nebraska in Houston. It stayed within reach, made just enough plays and capitalized on the moments that matter most in March. A turnover here. A missed shot there. A possession that didn’t end cleanly. Those are the plays that don’t always stand out in real time but add up quickly when the game compresses late.

When Iowa finally took its first lead with just over two minutes remaining, it felt abrupt, but it had been building. Nebraska couldn’t find the shot it needed to settle things and Iowa did what Nebraska couldn’t: close the deal.

That’s the part that lingers.

Pryce Sandfort delivered a performance worthy of the stage, finishing with 25 points and knocking down six 3-pointers. Braden Frager added 16 and provided a spark from deep when Nebraska needed it. Together, they carried much of the offensive load and kept Nebraska in control for most of the night. But the game didn’t come down to shot-making alone.

The turnover margin quietly told the story. Nebraska had 10 while Iowa had 5. That difference turned into a 20-7 gap in points off turnovers, and in a game decided in the final minutes, that’s the difference.

Still, the result shouldn’t erase what this season became.

Nebraska finished with 28 wins, the most in program history. It broke through in the NCAA Tournament for the first time and pushed all the way to the Sweet 16. More importantly, it looked like a team that understood how to operate in March, how to handle pressure, how to respond, how to belong.

That doesn’t soften the loss—it shouldn’t—but it does change what comes next. This isn’t about proving Nebraska can get there anymore. It’s about figuring out how to finish when it does.

The Red-White Spring Game is here

Spring games are always a little tricky. There’s an expectation to show something new, something exciting, something worth the trip to Memorial Stadium. At the same time, it’s still an evaluation tool more than anything else.

Matt Rhule isn’t interested in dressing it up.

“It’ll be like a game,” he said Thursday. “We’ll hope to see the numbers coming up, depending on it, depending on how it came out of today. So, if we’re to put the offense in one kind of defense in another, we’ll still just play like a game that went off.”

Nebraska knows it doesn’t need the theatrics right now. Instead, it needs clarity and execution. It needs to show that the work being done behind the scenes is translating to something consistent on the field.

The most visible change will come defensively, where Rob Aurich’s 4-2-5 system replaces the structure Nebraska has leaned on in recent years. But the scheme itself isn’t the focus as much as how it’s carried out.

“I want to see the same standard of running to the ball, getting off blocks, doing their jobs,” Rhule said. “I think, anytime you scrimmage, tackling is of the utmost.”

That’s the evaluation. It’s not about whether or not the defense looks different, but instead whether it looks disciplined, whether it plays fast without losing structure and whether the fundamentals hold up when the setting feels a little more real.

“Don’t change the way you play,” Rhule said. “Play one snap at a time. Anxious to see the tackling.”

Simple, but that’s kind of the point.

A weekend that feels like a snapshot of everything at once

There’s a lot happening in Lincoln this weekend. That’s probably putting it lightly.

Softball hosts one of the biggest series of the season. Baseball continues to build momentum at home. Football brings fans back into the stadium. All of it layered into the same few days.

Rhonda Revelle didn’t overcomplicate it.

“People should know what’s going on at this campus this weekend, because it’s really cool,” Revelle said. “I think it’ll be a pretty great environment for softball.”

The softball series, in particular, carries weight. Nebraska enters it playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten Conference, riding a long winning streak and leaning on a pitching staff that has controlled games in a way that feels sustainable.

UCLA brings the opposite challenge with an offense that can overwhelm teams quickly and force games into a different rhythm.

“The rate that they’re scoring has been super impressive, and when an offense scores like that, it can kind of beat down a team on both sides of the ball,” Revelle said.

That contrast makes the series compelling. Nebraska’s ability to dictate with pitching versus UCLA’s ability to accelerate the game offensively.

At the same time, baseball continues to stack wins at Haymarket Park. The Huskers haven’t lost at home, and even as the rotation adjusts, the results haven’t dipped. That’s usually the sign of a team that’s starting to understand itself.

Will Bolt’s decision to rework the rotation reflects that awareness.

“I just can’t imagine going the whole year and trying to win the league without using (Cooper) Katskee more on the weekend,” Bolt said. “That’s just really what it boils down to.”

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Pro Day brings a different kind of perspective

In the middle of everything else, there was also a quieter moment this week. It’s one that doesn’t come with a scoreboard or a big crowd.1 That event was Nebraska’s Pro Day.

For the players involved, it’s the culmination of years of work, but also the beginning of something uncertain. There’s no guarantee on the other side of it, only opportunity.

“You grow up every Sunday just dying to watch the NFL, dreaming about playing in it,” Emmett Johnson said. “So to be in a position to do this, to be at Pro Day, it’s a blessing.”

Johnson improved on his combine numbers, shaving time off his 40-yard dash and continuing to build his case. Heinrich Haarberg showed his versatility as he transitions to tight end. Others moved through drills knowing this might be their last chance to make an impression.

“I felt like it was a great performance, but I’ve got a lot more football to be played,” Johnson said.

The 2026 NFL Draft is scheduled for April 23-25, in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.

Bowling does what Nebraska bowling does

The Huskers are back in the NCAA Tournament—again—and at this point, that part barely registers as news. Nebraska is the only program to qualify for every NCAA Bowling Championship since the event began in 2004.

This year’s path starts in Pittsburgh, where Nebraska heads into the regional round with a 71-33 record after navigating a competitive Conference USA Championship. The Huskers didn’t leave that tournament with a title, but they didn’t leave without momentum either. They’ve already been through the kind of pressure situations that define March and April in this sport.

As for the NCAA regional itself, it’s a double elimination format. Nebraska opens against Duquesne, while the rest of the bracket works through its own early-round matchup to determine who advances to face one of the top seeds.

The regional itself is just the first checkpoint. Only one team advances out of Pittsburgh when it’s all said and done.

If Nebraska advances, the final four teams will meet in Parma Heights, Ohio, for the NCAA Championships. That’s the stage the program expects to reach, and Nebraska knows this spot well.

In another world, this newsletter began and ended with news about Nebraska basketball advancing to the Elite Eight. That didn’t happen, and there will be plenty to dissect between now and the beginning of next season.

For now, instead, we’ll frame this week as a ceiling raised. There are opportunities still out there for Nebraska, even if a piece of it stings right now.

After all, it’s never been about just one story for Nebraska. The next chapter is always there, ready to digest when the time is right.

Editor’s note: We won’t have a game day guide on Saturday, because there isn’t much to share in advance to warrant the full guide. However, we will have a game day chat and will share updates throughout the game for those that would like to join. See you then.

It’s right there in the name.

Out of curiosity and spurred by the novelty of Nebraska’s role in this NCAA Tournament, I wanted to find out if any of Dean Oliver’s Four Factors—shooting, turnovers, offensive rebounds, free throws—was carrying unusual weight this March. Has this been a rebounding tournament? A defensive tournament?

I wasn’t surprised to find that, nope, it’s still mostly about making baskets and preventing them. In this year’s tournament, effective field goal percentage (shooting) was the most strongly correlated offensive category followed by turnover rate, offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate. That’s how Oliver weighted the categories in his original theory, too,1 and the same order holds on defense through two rounds of the tournament.

On paper, this is all mostly good news as Nebraska takes on Iowa tonight in Houston in the Sweet 16. But as anyone who watched the first two matchups between these two rivals know, this looks like more of a “throw the records (and stats) out” type of game, particularly given the familiarity in play both ways.

But the numbers are still the best way to have a better understanding of what’s happening while it’s happening. What are good signs? What are bad signs?

Will the brain even be functioning enough to process them in what is likely to be a tense, fierce, tight game that is set to propel this rivalry to another level? Or will it be mostly heart and guts?

We won’t know about the latter until tipoff, but we can at least get our brains ready in advance. It’ll help if things are going well for NU early on. And if they aren’t, well…

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Nebraska and Iowa don’t just know each other by now. The Huskers and Hawkeyes maybe know the other a little too well, if we’re being honest. The two have already met twice this season, the first being a 57-52 Iowa win in Iowa City on Feb. 17 and the second a 84-75 Husker win in Lincoln on March 8.

On Thursday night in Houston, Nebraska and Iowa meet again. This time, it’s just two teams that have already seen each other twice, now meeting again with something much bigger attached.

No big deal, right?

Coach Fred Hoiberg met with the media Monday, a day before the Huskers depart for Houston. He didn’t overcomplicate things. He’s watched what Iowa has become over the past two games in the NCAA Tournament, and his tone reflected a team that understands exactly what’s coming.

“(Iowa) is a team that is playing really well,” Hoiberg said. “They are playing their best stretch of basketball of the season right now. We are going to have to have a great couple of days in preparation to get ourselves ready…We just need to go out and execute. This is a huge game for us.”

Nebraska has already experienced two different versions of itself in this tournament. Against Troy, it controlled everything from the moment the game settled in. The ball moved, the defense held and the result followed naturally. Against Vanderbilt, it required patience when the offense stalled, composure when the energy spiked and the ability to reset when things started to slip.

That second game matters more now.

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